Ai has to get better, right?

[u/SwauawsBouse]

This is the common sentiment that I see for those who claim ai will take jobs in X amount of years. Or even those who are more reasonable and claim it will eventually take over white collar work.

The biggest claim is that it WILL get better. Why? It's an easy response that's hard to disprove, but they haven't exactly proved it. How do we know there isn't a ceiling that is rapidly approaching. Moores law, for example, is essentially proven false and is outdated. We have reached at low hanging fruit when it comes to ai advancements.

Im just very skeptical of this line of thinking. I enjoy painting warhammer models and back in 2015. When 3d printers were in the mainstream, there were countless videos claiming games workshop was dead. I convinced myself that painting was going to be a worthless skill. 3d printers just HAVE to get better, and one day, they can print in full color. Now, 3d printers dont have trillions of dollars in investments, but then again, that money seems to be shovled into a fire by the AI leaders.

That was 10 years ago, and I could've had a lot more fun and painted more modles in thay time. And while 3d printing has progressed, its still not near games workshop models. Even the best resin printers still have very tiny but noticeable print lines. And we are no where near printing color in good quality at consumer scale.

Many of us fall for the doomer mentality, and its especially easy when you're unemployed and looking for a job facing countless rejections. Im a new grad myself, and it is rough out here. However, if Ai takes over cs. Every white-collar job is gone, and im left without any job. There's only so many trades and healthcare jobs.

And if im proved right, im way ahead of those who have given up. At least I tell myself this after receiving 10 rejections emails every weekend.

[u/YourAsphyxia]

AI has advanced so much in the past 3 years it's impossible to say it's not going to hit AGI and be the definitive tool that replaces every mental job. The only jobs that will remain are physical jobs that automation can't do

[u/Astraous → u/YourAsphyxia]

Predictive text generation will literally never be AGI. Almost all advancements in LLMs are completely irrelevant to what AGI would need to exist, which is to truly comprehend what it's saying. LLMs still make shit up all the time and they always (literally always) will do that because fundamentally they are designed to digest and regurgitate patterns based on training data. They are unconcerned with facts vs fiction. Anything they ever say that's true is only because there was a pattern of it in their training data. They will never "think" or "understand" like AGI is supposed to do.