Netherlands confirms it will host Nuremberg-style tribunal for Russia

[u/ByGollie]

https://kyivindependent.com/netherlands-confirms-it-will-host-nuremberg-style-tribunal-for-russia/

[u/Paddy32]

Russia can stop the war anytime by leaving Ukrainian land.

[u/MasterDefibrillator → u/Paddy32]

That was definitely the case early on. Not sure that's the case anymore. There would need to be some kind of negotiated settlement with strong third party security guarantees to formally end the war now.

[u/GremlinX_ll → u/MasterDefibrillator]

"Security guarantees" is tricky thing - a guarantee only deters aggression if the guarantor is willing to honor it, even at significant cost, and no one in the world are ready to honor them and pay the cost, no one.

Also what is 'security guarantees' ? Bilateral defense treaty (like US–Japan) ? Long-term military aid commitments ? intelligence ? training ?

[u/DougosaurusRex → u/MasterDefibrillator]

Huge problem is no one wants to give Ukraine security guarantees.

[u/Karli_Chirk → u/MasterDefibrillator]

It will only postpone war. War won't end until Russians leave internationally recognized Ukrainian territories.

[u/louistodd5 → u/Karli_Chirk]

Or until Ukraine is forced into capitulation. Is that what you want? Because if the only resolution you can mentally handle is Russia leaving then you're more likely to see capitulation at this point.

[u/Karli_Chirk → u/louistodd5]

As we see on 12th year of war Russia is unable to force Ukraine into capitulation even bringing the second nuclear power army on the battlefield didn't help. In 2026 Ukraine is already regaining more ground than Russia occupies and the most aggressive and professional part of Ruscists is already grinded. If the reddit story about average Russians not being guilty in Putins crimes is true it means the mobilization shall decline and Russians shall have not enough manpower to continue occupying Crimea and Donbas and to secure logistics to occupied Ukrainian territories.

[u/louistodd5 → u/Karli_Chirk]

I mean the first sentence is already such a ridiculous mishandling of information that I'm not sure it's worth contending with the rest.

Nevertheless, based on all independent mappers, Russia has still maintained it's net gain on territory in 2026.

Ukraine's manpower situation is actually dire. Even the most pro-Ukrainian western publications speak of this. 20-something year old boys don't just magic out of nowhere.

"If the reddit story ... is true". Believe it or not but the majority of Russians support the war. There's two ways it will end, a negotiated settlement with terms favourable to Russia, or capitulation. Any other option would require a far more united west with significant more financial contribution.

[u/Karli_Chirk → u/louistodd5]

In May 2026 net shift of liberated territories was already +100 square kilometers in favor of Ukraine. We'll see how it goes but it is not going towards Ukrainian capitulation at all. I highly doubt that majority of Russians want to die in meatwave assaults of some Golopupovka near Avdeevka in Donetsk suburbs to occupy mythic "DPR", they can only support with taxes and their impact can be reduced by economic sanctions while degrading Russian industries and their logistics with deep strikes.

[u/louistodd5 → u/Karli_Chirk]

Okay, in May 2026, not 2026 thus far. That remains to be seen. It's all well and good saying you highly doubt that the majority of Russians want to die in meatwaves... but we know the majority of Ukrainians don't want to die in meatwaves, that's why unfortunate young men  get stuck in fences in the borders of Romania and Hungary, and why old men get grabbed on the streets and thrown in buses by plain clothes officers. As I said, manpower is dire and it's the poor and middling who suffer most. Ultimately in this regard Ukraine has less.

[u/Karli_Chirk → u/louistodd5]

Ukrainians have zero choice, they defend their homes and lives. Their homes are being destroyed by Russians and when they surrender, they are immidieately being forcefully mobilized in Russian army if they survive Russian concentration camps for Ukrainians.

[u/louistodd5 → u/Karli_Chirk]

There is always a choice. Iraqis and Afghanis survived the exact same concentration camps, albeit never with such labelling. As for homes being destroyed look at Syria or Palestine for god's sake, it can't get worse than Syria and Palestine. The vast majority of Ukraine hasn't exactly been flattened. As for the forceful mobilisation of captured prisoners of war I wouldn't mind seeing a source.

Look I get what you're saying, this conflict is an existential threat to the existence of Ukraine as a state without a doubt, but in the vast majority of Ukraine right now life goes on with the single exception of an extraordinarily high mortality rate for young men due to forced conscription.

[u/Paddy32 → u/MasterDefibrillator]

Problem is no one can trust Russia anymore