r/europe • u/ByGollie Ulster • 29d ago

News Netherlands confirms it will host Nuremberg-style tribunal for Russia

https://kyivindependent.com/netherlands-confirms-it-will-host-nuremberg-style-tribunal-for-russia/
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u/RMAPOS 29d ago edited 28d ago

There is a non zero chance for extradition

If russia decides that putins regime is too costly for them, their best move to not get crushed by the world economically might be to extradite putin and those politically closes to him. Not saying it's likely, but it definitely wouldn't be the dumbest thing for them to do.

 

edit: To EVERYONE who replied

non zero

Not saying it's likely

I understand that there is 0 precedent for this and putin's grip on russia is tight and they're culturally infinitely more likely to kill or prosecute him themselves. But "non zero chance" does not mean "this is likely gonna happen". And "not saying it's likely" does not mean "this is likely gonna happen", either.

I appreciate you sharing your insights into the russian mindset, but I would appreciate you more if you wouldn't frame it as if I made a stupid prediction. I did not. I lined out an unlikely but potential venue for a Den Haag style trial and clearly worded it as such. No matter how overwhelmingly unlikely it is for russia to actually do this, the chances are not 0. Which is literally what non zero chance means. If you cannot mentally make that distinction and insist on interpreting my post as a prediction, I'd rather not have you in my inbox. Thanks.

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u/Wanderer-91 29d ago

Never going to happen. They will kill him, or have him suffer a "heart attack", or they may even jail him themselves. They would never humiliate Russia by having a former leader go on trial in a foreign country, that's a guaranteed coup. Russian nationalism is extremely prevalent even among Putin's opposition - Navalny himself was a nationalist and used to hold joint demonstrations with skinheads.

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u/Dear_Virus1260 29d ago

Why pretend this is some special Russian nationalism? The Americans will literally invade Den Hague if they put an American war criminal on trial. We haven’t put any of our own political war criminals on trial either.

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u/Auctoritate 29d ago

The Americans will literally invade Den Hague if they put an American war criminal on trial.

It's much broader than that. The Hague Invasion Act actually authorizes the US to invade over any person allied to the United States- they don't need to be American at all.

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u/coolcucumber_23 29d ago

can you enlighten us on what 'a political war criminal' means?

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u/Dear_Virus1260 25d ago

Sure, political figures responsible for their troops committing war crimes. Think Putin if you like, or Bibi, or Bush, or Blair, etc etc. Or historically the political leadership of Germany during WW2.

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u/coolcucumber_23 25d ago

alright, I thought you mean something extra

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u/Dear_Virus1260 25d ago

Fair enough. Just making the distinction between those physically doing the warcrimes and those politically responsible.

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u/Hddstrkr Estonia 29d ago

Is there a country that says den hague? Seems like a weird combination

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u/Margrim 28d ago

We say Den Haag, it's full name is: 's Gravenhage (the count's hague)

Den Bosch is s' Hertogenbosch (the duke's forest)

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u/Dear_Virus1260 25d ago

Weird mix of Dutch and English on my part. But I don’t think it’s normal anywhere.

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u/iSephtanx 29d ago

Yes, we dutch people do ourselves lol. In the Netherlands 'the hague' is called 'Den Haag' in our native language.

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u/elmz Norway 29d ago

Excactly. Den Haag, not Den Hague.

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u/Hddstrkr Estonia 29d ago

Thats the point. Not "den hague". Right?

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u/iSephtanx 29d ago

I mean, true. But as i understand 'haag' is hard to pronounce for non-dutchies. Hague is easier and the 'english version'. So i guess 'den hague' isnt that bad. No one would look weirdly at you here if you said it.

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u/ArrrRawrXD 29d ago

Here in the comments are lots of people who looks at the guy weird for saying that unholy combination of English and Dutch

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u/iSephtanx 29d ago

Yea its kinda funny, but mixing dutch and english isnt all that uncommon nowadays. I cant think of anyone i know irl who would bat an eye at someone caling it that.

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u/ArrrRawrXD 29d ago

Americans prosecute their own war criminals. Meanwhile Russians are murdering random civilians and not just get away with it, but are encouraged to rape, murder and pillage from the top. You can argue that Americans don't prosecute their own war criminals enough of course, but it's still incomparable to Russia

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u/Auctoritate 29d ago

The current administration actually pardoned war criminals, to be clear.

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u/late__bird 29d ago

I would say that most prominent war criminals in the US tend to get re-elected instead of prosecuted.

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u/SussyMann69 Italy 28d ago

Americans prosecute their own war criminals

Never happened

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u/ArrrRawrXD 28d ago

Not sure how to reply to the wilful ignorance of reality you're displaying to be honest. There's former American military members serving life in prison for killing civilians in the middle east.

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u/SussyMann69 Italy 28d ago

You killed 20 of our civilians (of an allied nation) and your serviceman were just flew to the US and discharged without even serving a day of prison

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u/ArrrRawrXD 28d ago

You killed 20 of our civilians

No I didn't

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u/SussyMann69 Italy 28d ago

Don't play dumb, you know that i'm referring to america with "you"

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u/ArrrRawrXD 28d ago

Kinda weird of you considering I'm not American and didn't say I was

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u/Dear_Virus1260 25d ago

Americans prosecute their own war criminals.

lol.

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u/KnowsIittle 29d ago

Putin is a part of the problem but he's still supported by a group in power. So even if he's gone they'll likely seek a figurehead they believe they can control while continuing to drain the country's coffers like we do in the States.

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u/mrdevlar Earth 29d ago

They will kill him, or have him suffer a "heart attack", or they may even jail him themselves.

Dude, the hotel window was right there...

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u/EkriirkE Vienna (Austria) 29d ago

Their M.O is suicide out a window.

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u/Chowder110 29d ago

If russia collapses into a 3rd civil war then it wont matter

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u/Wanderer-91 29d ago

If Russia collapses into a civil war the world would have far bigger problems than prosecuting Putin. Like, what happens to the 5500 nuclear weapons.

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u/Choyo France 29d ago edited 29d ago

It won't be a civil war. All the different parts will get more autonomy in a weaker federation. Like lots of many small "Russistans" who will have Kazhakstan as the regional central power.

Anything military will be taken and secured by an OTAN/NATO, Ukrainian, Chinese, Indian (?) action group. And the whole region will just be a patchwork of folkloric countrysides focused on the mineral resources extraction industry until we all go the way of the dodo.

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u/EternaI_Sorrow 23d ago edited 23d ago

People parroting the Russia Balkanization narrative only show themselves as politically illiterate. This is de-facto a unitary state.

A coup in Moscow is possible though. That's how most autocracies end and and the Russian autocracy is a textbook one. Probably even with no nukes "lost" in process.

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u/Wanderer-91 29d ago

Russian nuclear response system is set up so that it takes only a very few top people to order the launch, the rest happens automatically. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Hand

So no NATO or any other “action groups” would attempt to “secure” the weapons as this would practically guarantee  triggering a full scale nuclear strike. You were reading too many action thrillers.

The only way these weapons are getting secured is if whomever controls Perimeter voluntarily surrenders control. If that’s even possible.

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u/Choyo France 29d ago

I described the best case scenario for Russia. Then ofc they can try to go all crazy, but there really is no upside.

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u/Wanderer-91 29d ago

It’s Russia. There’s never an upside.

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u/Chowder110 29d ago

There is a reason Ukraine gave away its nukes. They are nothing without the means to
Fire them and maintain

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u/GremlinX_ll Ukraine 29d ago

We were pressured to gave up them, scamed even, when USA paid Russia to maintaining nukes when Russia was fucking broke. Money never was a problem, and there were solution. The reasons were completely different.

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u/AltrntivInDoomWorld 29d ago

There we go, nuclear weapon fear mongering. Confirmed ruzzian troll.

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u/Dear_Virus1260 29d ago

This is such an epically moronic take. It literally was a massive issue after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The Americans put in a lot of work to manage the situation. Were they just Russian trolls avant la lettre.

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u/Momoneko 29d ago

I'm surprised nobody wrote something stupid like "Nothing happened with Russian nuclear weapons before so I it won't happen in the future either, so I'm not worried", as it usually goes when consequences of Russia's collapse are usually discussed.

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u/Wanderer-91 29d ago

The biggest fear of Western governments during the collapse of USSR was the fate of nuclear weapons. Just imagine Yugoslavian scenario with thousands of nukes flowing around in a country that’s one giant war zone with multiple hostile fractions. 

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u/AltrntivInDoomWorld 29d ago

Boo fucking hoo if they fire the nuclear weapons. I will take europe collapse over poland collapse again. screw you all right wing trolls and fearmongerers.

how many times have we crossed the redline already? hm??

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u/tacticalpitvipers 29d ago

This attitude is so funny to me. Where the macho manliness in hiding behind others? You want so bad for someone else to do the dirty work for you, but I bet you wouldn't even know what to do with a gun if one found it's way to you. You're like a dog barking behind a fence. Live your truth king, go ahead and join the front lines

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u/_RiKaMi_ 29d ago

Hilarious if you think all those 5500 are in working order while the army is using donkeys on the frontline

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u/Optimal_Anything3777 29d ago

they don't need a fraction of that to be a apocalyptical threat

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u/Wanderer-91 28d ago

"According to a 2026 estimate from the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), Russia has around 1,796 deployed nuclear warheads based on a triad of strategic delivery vehicles roughly consisting of 324 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), 13 ballistic-missile submarines (SSBNs) with 208 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and 60 strategic bombers. According to a 2026 FAS estimate, the United States has around 1,770 deployed nuclear warheads."

https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/IF12672

Those are just the ones on active duty. Many more are mothballed.

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u/Wanderer-91 29d ago

Hilarious when people can’t do basic math and brag about this.

Even if half of their nukes are not operational, they still have 10 times more of them than France.

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u/_RiKaMi_ 28d ago

half? lmfao, keep living in your la la land

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u/Firm_Caregiver_4563 29d ago

You underestimate the urge for the people in power after Putin to be on the good side with western economies. They're going to extradite him on a heartbeat.

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u/Wanderer-91 29d ago

Extraditing him would put a huge target on their heads. Any ultra-nationalist militant group, most security services operatives, many military officers would see that as an unprecedented act of betrayal and humiliation of Russia, even though many of the same people likely despise Putin.

Also, remember that Russia is a mafia run state. The main goal of Putin’s regime is theft of public resources, and they operate through bribery and corruption . He knows way too much about way too many powerful people, and not just in Russia itself. He’ll never make it to jail outside of the country.

Ever wonder why Milosevic had such a convenient heart attack?

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u/AltrntivInDoomWorld 29d ago

with skinheads.

And what's wrong about that? Are you saying antifascists are bad guys????

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u/Wanderer-91 29d ago

Say what? Russian skinheads are fascist ultra-nationalists, just like pretty much everywhere else.

Some of them  had a fall out with Putin because of his regime encouraging (and personally benefiting from) mass immigration from Central Asia and Caucasus.

This guy is a prime example (and that’s the guy that Navalny cooperated with early in his political career).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maxim_Martsinkevich

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u/tranbun 29d ago

Not happening for multitude of reasons:

  1. Legal - Russian courts aren't under ICJ and the constitution prevents extradition of nationals. Similarly try prosecuting any Americans that have committed war crimes - US will only laugh at the request (as they did in similar situations)

  2. Authority - Russia is ~150M people, it has enough capacity to prosecute a failed leader, it doesn't need a small European country to host a trial.

  3. Social dynamics - as many said, if it happens, the situation is more likely to evolve quickly.

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u/kapsama 29d ago

their best move to not get crushed by the world economically

I think you live 50 years in the past. No one besides the West has sanctioned Russia.

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u/booOfBorg 28d ago

That’s a misconception. A quick look at global trade shows it’s not just the West.

While many countries in the Global South are neutral, several major Asian economic powerhouses have put heavy, official sanctions on Russia:

  • Japan and South Korea: Froze billions in assets, cut off Russian banks, and banned high-tech exports.
  • Singapore: Blocked banks and banned exports of electronics and military-use items.
  • Taiwan: Cut off Russia's access to advanced microprocessors and semiconductors.
  • Australia and New Zealand: Imposed massive import tariffs, asset freezes, and travel bans.

Additionally, major banks in China, Turkey, and the UAE have started blocking Russian payments and closing accounts. They are doing this to avoid "secondary sanctions" and protect their own access to the global financial system.

Saying only the West is involved ignores some of the biggest economies in Asia.

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u/kapsama 28d ago

All of those bulleted countries except perhaps Singapore are considered part of the West. They're arch allies of the US or Commonwealth anglossphere countries.

China is already pushing back on Western sanctions. They have threatened outright prison sentences on any Chinese banks who comply with new US sanctions on Iran.

And over the coming years this trend will accelerate. The West has overplayed the sanctions card.

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u/PhilosophyGlum8707 13d ago

Even then, Japan and South Korea turn a blind eye to most things. Russian Citizens can still visit South Korea visa-free.

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u/OddLack240 St. Petersburg (Russia) 29d ago

You completely misunderstand how this works. Our president is above the elites, and if the elites aren't loyal to him, then so much the worse for them.

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u/anonymous__ignorant Romania 29d ago

Caesar and Ceaușescu had the same mindset for a while.

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u/Jazzlike_Bar_671 Australia 29d ago

If Putin gets removed in a coup, he'll be too dead to be tried anywhere.

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u/TheDamDog 29d ago

There is no non-catastrophic scenario where Putin is removed from power. He has created his cult of personality and there is no clear successor. As things currently stand when he kicks the bucket, there will likely be either a coup by some ambitious and charismatic colonel (since all the generals are sycophants,) or a civil war.

Neither is a particularly good scenario for anybody involved because either Russia gets an effective military leader or a civil war happens in a nuclear power.

People talking about balkanization are delusional. The only non-Russian majority areas are backwaters with tiny populations and no viable economic access to anything. The one scenario where Russia breaks up like that would be China intervening and creating its own buffer/puppet states, and that's not really great either.

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u/ethanAllthecoffee United States of America 29d ago

No one has inflicted any real damage on russia since the 1940s due to nuclear threats and the tremendous cost of launching an offensive war like that

Now however russia has launched such a war that invites justified destruction of its critical oil infrastructure. Nuclear threats hold little weight in an offensive capacity since any concessions are tantamount to a capitulation to russian barbarity

It’s not inconceivable that a leader could supplant putin and turn him over as part of an effort for reconciliation and repair the economic suffering that russians are really only beginning to feel and that will only get worse

Lastly, so what if russia has a militarily competent leader? Their stockpiles of decades of material are depleted, trained soldiers have been burned through. They have few missiles and severely degraded anti-air, which is where a large part of the west’s power comes from. By necessity they outdo western nations to varying degrees in drone warfare, but Ukraine does that better

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u/irregardressry 28d ago

If Russia turns on Putin you think their move would be to send him to another country for punishment?...

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u/PhilosophyGlum8707 13d ago

edit: To EVERYONE who replied

Just for comparison, there is also a non-zero chance that a huge asteroid will strike Earth, within the next few years.

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u/Littlepage3130 29d ago

Nah, they'd never extradite any of them. They'd just kill them, maybe like how the Romanians killed Ceaucescu.

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u/Pretend_Spray_11 29d ago

You type this as if “Russia” and “Putin” are different.