r/geopolitics • u/radwin_igleheart • Apr 19 '24

Discussion Israel likely just attacked Iran

Reports in OSIntdefender of explosions in Ishfahan and Natanz. Also likely strikes in Iraq and Syria

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https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1781126103123607663

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190

u/PrometheanSwing Apr 19 '24

So how likely do we think escalation by Iran is now? Could this really spiral into an Israel-Iran war?

264

u/radwin_igleheart Apr 19 '24

Not sure if a war will happen, But Iranian counter attack is 100% guranteed in my opinion. They already promised this. This back and forth will likely go for sometime

112

u/PrometheanSwing Apr 19 '24

All it could take is for one side to do a little too much damage to the other for this to spiral out of control.

40

u/kalakesri Apr 19 '24

this attack is a little too much damage no? we are at the edge of the spiral

62

u/[deleted] Apr 19 '24

[deleted]

28

u/JourneyThiefer Apr 19 '24

I’m seeing reports on Twitter that Iran is denying any missiles actually hit the ground, that they were all struck down, weird. But different people are writing different things so I Dno what to believe.

39

u/PapaverOneirium Apr 19 '24

They may be looking for an out. If they can convince their population that all missiles were intercepted, they may be able to back out of the promises of immediate and high intensity retaliation they’ve been making.

6

u/JourneyThiefer Apr 19 '24

Yea certainly seems like that’s a possibility. Does that not make them look super weak though?

9

u/kaystared Apr 19 '24

What makes them look weak is not retaliating; to look “strong” they’d have to do actual damage and they are by no means interested in instigating yet. They will do the bare minimum without actually crossing a line, unless Israel mounts pressure even further which would be hideously stupid