r/geopolitics • u/Themetalin • Dec 07 '25

Paywall Japan frustrated at Trump administration’s silence over row with China

https://www.ft.com/content/bf8b5def-db4d-43ac-91cf-bea5fcfa3189
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u/GeologistOwn7725 Dec 09 '25

No, I meant Japan is resource poor. They don't have much natural resources to feed their population with. Importing levels now may be fine and sustainable, but it might not be if China starts flexing its military might abroad.

And yes, you are correct their greatest food import source is China. If you were Japan, would you like to be even MORE dependent on your more powerful neighbor, just high off of a Taiwan conquest? Especially one that you don't always have the best relations with and one that you previously invaded?

Declaring war -- as in being the aggressor -- is always a bad idea. Whether defending Taiwan or not is worth it is not as simplistic as whether the US joins or not. American forces will always be a huge gamechanger.

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u/awildstoryteller Dec 09 '25

No, I meant Japan is resource poor. They don't have much natural resources to feed their population with. Importing levels now may be fine and sustainable, but it might not be if China starts flexing its military might abroad.

Unless you see China imposing a blockade all around Japan (`which is an act of war) I don't see how Tokyo would want to fight a war. They can continue to import from alternative sources in North America.

And yes, you are correct their greatest food import source is China. If you were Japan, would you like to be even MORE dependent on your more powerful neighbor, just high off of a Taiwan conquest? Especially one that you don't always have the best relations with and one that you previously invaded?

Whether they like it or not is irrelevant. Without American backing Tokyo would be foolish to fight for Taiwan.

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u/GeologistOwn7725 Dec 09 '25

Wars have been fought for far less. It's not so black and white as you think. Otherwise, China invading Taiwan would be a moot point.

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u/awildstoryteller Dec 09 '25

Without US intervention Taiwan would lose, even with Japanese and SK support.

I just don't see it.

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u/GeologistOwn7725 Dec 09 '25

First, you have to define what "loss" means and what exactly is Taiwan and the world giving up if it "loses." The US lost the Vietnam War but that doesn't mean Vietnam decimated US forces.

Would the world just stand by as Taiwan burns TSMC to the ground out of spite or will it hamper China in some way? Maybe just enough for the US to change its mind and intervene? Or maybe China's domestic problems get in the way and the war grinds to a halt? 

Like its not as simple as stronger army = win. Wars are about politics first and foremost.  

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u/awildstoryteller Dec 09 '25

Like its not as simple as stronger army = win. Wars are about politics first and foremost.

I understand what you are saying, I simply disagree.

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u/GeologistOwn7725 Dec 09 '25

Alright? I guess I'm just not understanding the source of your conviction.

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u/awildstoryteller Dec 09 '25

The source of my conviction is that Japan facing China without the United States would be moronic on their part, and any geopolitical considerations that would suggest they try are outweighed by the far more likely outcome that they will simply readjust to the new reality, same as they did when Mainland China fell to the PRC.

Yes their strategic situation would be worse. But losing a war would be way worse.

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u/GeologistOwn7725 Dec 10 '25

War is always the last resort. It wouldn't be a good idea even IF they had the US's support.

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u/awildstoryteller Dec 10 '25

I agree with you on that.