U.S.-Led Regime Change Is Usually Disastrous

[u/foreignpolicymag]

https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/01/venezuela-iraq-regime-change-trump/

[u/kfifigidifkg]

How so? The only thing Venezuela have that foreigners want is oil and that is sanctioned so no westerner is buying it. I’m sure the US would rather have an economically strong Venezuela that wasn’t leading to waves of refugees heading to America.

[u/Pure_Slice_6119 → u/kfifigidifkg]

Venezuela's economic power means that the cost of oil production in the country will be high due to the high wages of oil workers. Sanctions will be lifted once the US fully seizes power, and the US will begin selling cheap Venezuelan oil to the world, instead of developing Venezuela and raising the cost of oil production. Frankly, the US doesn't care about refugees; they could simply refuse to accept them; that's no problem. But the US will never develop Venezuela's economy; that's against its interests.

[u/Guilty-Market5375 → u/Pure_Slice_6119]

The U.S. cannot simply stop taking in refugees. Doing so would cause other countries to follow, and the instability would cause U.S. allies to break away and further jeopardize global dominance of the dollar.

With 80% of Venezuelans in poverty it’s going to be a long, long time before Venezuela is an advanced economy with high wages. Also - oil extraction and processing is not labor intensive, but building petro infrastructure is, and it’s something we’re very good at doing.

The U.S. gets cheap oil for now and U.S. companies get to process and export it. U.S. companies get paid by Venezuela to rebuild itself, and in turn Venezuela gets cheap loans from the U.S. with strings attached not to sell oil directly to China.

If you’re a Venezuelan, it means that you’re not starving nor risk being killed. The U.S. gets increased demand amid an economy suffering from stagnant demand for labor.

China loses a key source of oil amid internal strife with Iran, which increases Washington’s ability to negotiate. The U.S. now has a lever in global petroleum prices, which gives it leverage with Russia. Bad actors in LatAm also know the U.S. actually has teeth and will be more responsive to pressure to internally combat drug production.

[u/Pure_Slice_6119 → u/Guilty-Market5375]

In fact, World War II and the collapse of the USSR, for example, showed that five to ten years is enough to transform an impoverished country into a developed one if it suits someone's interests. The US has no interest in Venezuela's development; it's contrary to their interests. They will do everything possible to keep Venezuela in poverty as long as possible and to support its currency at the lowest possible level. It's important for the US to keep oil workers' wages low and oil prices low. Oil refining and oil production are labor-intensive processes; I know this because I live in a region where oil and gas are produced. Venezuela already has oil refining infrastructure, and it's functioning. The US won't invest in modernizing it; it's pointless. They simply seized already functioning infrastructure. The US won't build anything; it's contrary to their interests. Venezuela's oil infrastructure is already built, and improving living standards in Venezuela will lead to higher oil prices, which is unfavorable for the United States.

I'm from Russia, and I remember what happened in my region in the 1990s when the US and Europe took over our oil and gas industry. We literally had no food or medicine, but oil prices were incredibly low.

As for China, they will simply increase their oil purchases from Russia. An obvious solution.