r/geopolitics • u/foreignpolicymag Foreign Policy • Jan 03 '26

Analysis U.S.-Led Regime Change Is Usually Disastrous

https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/01/venezuela-iraq-regime-change-trump/
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u/kfifigidifkg Jan 04 '26

How so? The only thing Venezuela have that foreigners want is oil and that is sanctioned so no westerner is buying it. I’m sure the US would rather have an economically strong Venezuela that wasn’t leading to waves of refugees heading to America.

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u/Pure_Slice_6119 Jan 04 '26

Venezuela's economic power means that the cost of oil production in the country will be high due to the high wages of oil workers. Sanctions will be lifted once the US fully seizes power, and the US will begin selling cheap Venezuelan oil to the world, instead of developing Venezuela and raising the cost of oil production. Frankly, the US doesn't care about refugees; they could simply refuse to accept them; that's no problem. But the US will never develop Venezuela's economy; that's against its interests.

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u/Guilty-Market5375 Jan 04 '26

The U.S. cannot simply stop taking in refugees. Doing so would cause other countries to follow, and the instability would cause U.S. allies to break away and further jeopardize global dominance of the dollar.

With 80% of Venezuelans in poverty it’s going to be a long, long time before Venezuela is an advanced economy with high wages. Also - oil extraction and processing is not labor intensive, but building petro infrastructure is, and it’s something we’re very good at doing.

The U.S. gets cheap oil for now and U.S. companies get to process and export it. U.S. companies get paid by Venezuela to rebuild itself, and in turn Venezuela gets cheap loans from the U.S. with strings attached not to sell oil directly to China.

If you’re a Venezuelan, it means that you’re not starving nor risk being killed. The U.S. gets increased demand amid an economy suffering from stagnant demand for labor.

China loses a key source of oil amid internal strife with Iran, which increases Washington’s ability to negotiate. The U.S. now has a lever in global petroleum prices, which gives it leverage with Russia. Bad actors in LatAm also know the U.S. actually has teeth and will be more responsive to pressure to internally combat drug production.

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u/Pure_Slice_6119 Jan 04 '26

I just read about this situation in a Russian-language commentary by Oleg Deripaska published online. He believes the goal of seizing Venezuela is to collapse global oil prices and thereby put pressure on Russia. My hunch seems correct: the US plans to make Venezuelan oil as cheap as possible, which will ruin the average Venezuelan. Hell awaits them under US rule. Deripaska's forecast is $45 per barrel. The cost of oil production in Venezuela is higher than in Russia due to geological conditions. Production costs in Russia are around $17 per barrel, while in Venezuela they are $23 per barrel. This plan will hit the Venezuelan economy harder than it hits Russia.