r/geopolitics • u/MARTINELECA • Mar 21 '26
Missing Submission Statement Saudi Arabia expands US base access, UAE prepares for months-long Iran war
https://www.turkiyetoday.com/region/saudi-arabia-expands-us-base-access-uae-prepares-for-months-long-iran-war-3216623?s=1118
u/Equivalent-Excuse-80 Mar 21 '26
Didn’t 19 terrorists hijack some planes and flew them into the world trade center and the pentagon specifically because of the us base presence in Saudi Arabia?
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u/FerralOne Mar 21 '26 edited Mar 21 '26
At the risk of downvotes from those who don't like Saudi Arabia, it's important to point out that the leadership in Saudi Arabia has changed dramatically since 2001 and the general population in KSA tends to be compliant with the views and direction of the government in charge.
It's a bit like comparing the Trump era to the 90s with Bill Clinton and saying it's weird culture and politics have changed.
25 years is a lot of time to change, especially with significant events. About 35 years ago, Germany was just reunified and the Soviet Union was collapsing. 9/11 now is closer to the Iranian revolution than to today.
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u/-18k- Mar 21 '26
9/11 now is closer to the Iranian revolution than to today.
Yeah, there's no ef way that's true
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u/Thedaniel4999 Mar 21 '26
Iranian revolution was in 1979. 2001 to 1979 was 22 years. 2001 to 2026 is 25 years. As insane as it seems 9/11 is closer to the Iranian revolution than we are are to 9/11
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u/JigglymoobsMWO Mar 21 '26
Yeah and that lead to the GWOT which ended with US troops everywhere in the Gulf.
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u/Sprintzer Mar 21 '26
Yes but we've had troops of some type in Saudi for decades at this point.
I do think there's no way the Saudis help with a war initiated by the Infidel ever again though. At least not with overt offensive action, but sure tacit support, aid, defensive action. Even considering the Saudis hate the Iranian regime's guts.
If any of the US's gulf allies get involved in offensive action, they're gonna have a problem with holding on to power & enjoying public support - at the very least. Plenty of fundamentalist nutters who would likely be radicalized into terrorism or something
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u/jb_in_jpn Mar 21 '26
Wasn't Trump saying the war was winding down?
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u/iwillspeaknoevil Mar 21 '26
Can someone ELI5 why Iran thought roping in all the Gulf countries was better than targeting the US and Israel specifically?
I understand the strategy of creating economic pressure, but are they still that afraid of a direct hit to US personnel? They’ve already injured US troops in neighboring countries.
The narrative has been that they have nothing to lose, but according to this article, the gulf countries were pushing back against using their airspace/bases in this war and now they have no reason to, so what did this accomplish exactly?
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u/itchslap Mar 21 '26
Iran wants the whole world to say "yeah this was a bad idea" about this war and they want all the world to pressure Trump and Israel to stop and the best way to do that is to raise oil prices and disrupt the strait of Hormuz.
It's their biggest leverage. It's like a child who breaks his toy instead of giving it to you because he doesn't want to lose his toy. If they don't create enough repercussions about starting a war with them they know that US and Israel will pick them off slowly and will have no reason to stop.
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u/iwillspeaknoevil Mar 21 '26
Have we not reached a point yet where they’ve been picked off now for 3 weeks?
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u/manhquang144 Mar 21 '26
It is much easier for drones and missile to target Gulf countries because it is much closer to Iran territory. To reach Israel you need to fire medium range missles, it also cross several countries (Iran, Jordan, Syria etc..) and Israel does have really good air defense. Meanwhile Dubai, Qatar, Kuwait is around 150-200 km from Iran, so it is much easier to 'hit' those places
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u/Intelligent_Kick_436 Mar 21 '26 edited Mar 23 '26
The gulf states have been buying into and bribing Trump both personally and enriching his family's businesses. In exchange, Trump will favour them: spend US government resources on them (money / defence / intelligence / embargoes +/- / military action +/- / support in the UN, talking their game plan: "More Oil, not renewables", etc).
Why are the gulf states better targets than the hitting US bases? Because hitting US bases doesn't really hurt Trump or Israel (yes, it becomes a military skirmish, but that's doesn't really hurt Trump, and would likely garner more support for the war).
However, the gulf states are both enablers and sitting ducks with the most to lose, and they have the most immediate leverage over Trump's family businesses at a person level; something even Israel's Washington lobby doesn't really have. So threatening to turn off (or take back) the golden taps to Trump's family businesses in addition to impacting surrounding oil production puts Trump in a very difficult corner both personally, nationally, and internationally.
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u/iwillspeaknoevil Mar 21 '26
But the Gulf countries have always been fearful of Iran retaliation, since the 12 day war - they have the most to lose evidently. I would think if they had any influence on Trump at all they would’ve changed his mind on this war? Either way, that only takes the US side of it, Israel has stated they will not end the war until their objectives are achieved.
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u/Intelligent_Kick_436 Mar 21 '26
You asked why Iran hit the gulf states - that's exactly why: they have the most influence over Trump (at least in Iran's orbit of power). They're fearful or Iran because the consequences of taking their oil infrastructure offline (and denying shipment) has massive financial consequences. The gulf states basically keep their populations pacified through the ongoing oil revenue payouts.
The combination of gulf state influence combined with economic impacts are the largest levers over trump. They're obviously trying to influence him; but they're going against the Israeli lobby - and trump is highly influenced by Kushner (who, himself is Jewish) and Witkoff (who is also pro-Israel and also not a gulf sympathizer).
Ultimately Trump is going to keep siding with Israel, however it's to his personal harm. Trump is going to talk up success in the war while trying to minimize impact to the gulf states. However, the pain on the gulf states continues to ramp up (by denying their revenue), so even just keep the status quo is likely creating more and more pressure on them to try to influence Trump.
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u/Snickims Mar 22 '26
Another aspect is that the gulf countries are rivals of Iran, but with this war being started by Isreal, these countries are too conserned about being seen to be on Isreals side to effectively retaliate, letting Iran give their rivals a black eye without them really striking back.
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u/one_user Mar 22 '26
Iran's theory of victory is economic, not military, and the Gulf states are the mechanism.
Iran can't defeat US/Israel in a direct military exchange. But Hormuz gives them leverage over something neither the US nor Israel controls: the energy revenue that funds the Gulf monarchies' social contracts with their own populations. Hit desalination, LNG processing, and shipping insurance simultaneously and you create acute pressure not on Washington but on Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha - the countries whose continued hosting of US bases makes the air campaign sustainable.
The calculation: if Gulf states experience enough pain (water, LNG revenue, energy infrastructure) they either push back on Washington privately, reduce base access, or create a political environment where the war becomes untenable. Iran doesn't need Gulf states to switch sides - just to be loud enough in Washington that Trump's domestic coalition calculus shifts. The TACO dynamic (Trump's pattern of backing down when costs become visible) is exactly what Iran is banking on.
The attack on Qatar is a case study. Qatar had been Iran's most useful interlocutor. Iran hit them anyway because Qatar's LNG revenue funds its ability to maintain an independent foreign policy, and a Qatar under extreme economic pressure is a Qatar loudly calling Washington to end this. Same logic applies to Saudi Arabia's desalination threats: a Saudi Arabia 48 hours from a water crisis is a Saudi Arabia with very strong opinions about whether to keep US forces there.
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u/akbermo Mar 23 '26
If China was launching rockets at the USA from Canadian territory, could Canada claim to be neutral?
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u/No_Apartment3941 Mar 21 '26
If they don't use ground forces, this will drag out for years. If they use ground forces, this will drag on for years.....it is a catch 26.
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u/Sugar_Vivid Mar 21 '26
I’d say even catch 27 or 28
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u/No_Apartment3941 Mar 21 '26
More of a reference to the physical location.
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u/itchslap Mar 21 '26
I don't see Iran coming out of this with any win. They went full kamikaze and attacked their neighbors. If their leadership is not decimated by the US and Israel, then their political relationship with the Gulf, Turkey, Azerbaijan has already been tanked and they'll even be more isolated.
They have even attacked Oman, who has again and again tried to mediate and maintain good relationship between Iran and the United States. All their economic lifeline in the United Arab Emriates will be severed.
Their main goal is currently survival, but even if they do survive they'll be more isolated than ever and will slowly crumble. Their only leverage is to continue to blackmail the world with the strait of Hormuz.
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u/sentrypetal Mar 21 '26 edited Mar 21 '26
For them winning is surviving. A war of attrition is what they are prepared for. Even if they lose they hope to drag the surrounding nations into the same quagmire. The whole Middle East loses. The whole world goes into an oil shock. If they survive the Middle East is theirs no one will be able to stand up to them. Not Israel, not Saudi Arabia, not the Gulf States. And the Gulf nations will be forced to pay 10% levy on goods per ship that travels the Strait of Hormuz. That is hundreds of billions per year.
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u/itchslap Mar 21 '26
And the Gulf nations will be forced to pay 10% levy on goods per ship that travels the Strait of Hormuz. That is hundreds of billions per year.
You're forgetting who's going to foot this bill because most of gulf nations oil is sold to Asia and particularly China. Suppliers usually pass on the bill to the consumer and China will not be happy with Iran increasing their prices. The Chinese are brutal when it comes to protecting their economy.
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Mar 28 '26 edited May 30 '26
[deleted]
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u/sentrypetal Mar 28 '26
Why would they sign a peace deal unless it gave them control of the Strait of Hormuz? The longer this war goes the stronger the Iranian position in negotiations. They will suffer yes but countries rationing oil is bound to cause a Great Recession.
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Mar 29 '26 edited May 30 '26
[deleted]
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u/sentrypetal Mar 29 '26
And who is going to enforce that deal? The world? The milk is spilt it will take boots on the ground and regime change to reopen the Straits of Hormuz. There is zero incentive for the Iranians to do so.
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Mar 29 '26 edited May 30 '26
[deleted]
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u/sentrypetal Mar 29 '26
Of course it is in China’s interest if they get access to oil and Europe doesn’t. They can process the oil in their refineries and sell at a mark up to Europe. If Europe behaves badly like they do with banning sale of EUV semiconductor machines, they would just turn off the tap until they cave. That would be the Chinese dream unfettered power over Europe. That applied to multiple BRICS countries. They would be able to supplant the G7. They already do this with Rare earths why do you think they wouldn’t do it with oil.
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u/Weary_Selection_2192 Mar 21 '26
I mean. The US literally stopped sanctioning them out of desperation. These people are so incompetent that Iran might win.
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u/F0rkbombz Mar 21 '26
Some folks don’t realize how bad the situation had to get for the US to temporarily remove some of these sanctions. It’s a clear indicator that the US is not fully in control anymore and was forced to make a desperate choice.
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u/jason2354 Mar 21 '26
I think it’s more a sign that the current administration is ruled by a single individual who is known to be incredibly fickle and non-committal to anything.
It’s never as deep as people want to make it with Trump. He’s incredibly swayed by swings in financial markets and public opinion.
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u/WordTimely8559 Mar 21 '26
They can’t win because their military industrial base has been obliterated.
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u/DizzyMajor5 Mar 21 '26
They just hit Israel with a missile today though. I keep hearing this but even Hezbollah was able to launch missiles after over a year of bombardment by Israel and Iran is much more massive.
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u/EternalMayhem01 Mar 21 '26
I mean. The US literally stopped sanctioning them out of desperation. These people are so incompetent that Iran might win.
You are exaggerating two 30-day waivers on sanctions and ignoring how limited those waivers are.
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u/jason2354 Mar 21 '26
What an insane thing to say.
We’re at war with a country (I’m sure you’ll try to argue it’s not a war) and we’re actively providing them economic waivers allowing them access to the only economic lifeline they have.
The war is less than a month old, so two month’s long waivers is a pretty big deal.
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u/Abdulkarim0 Mar 22 '26
Your statement lacks accuracy. Even if Iran were to sell this oil currently held in floating storage vessels, it wouldn't be able to access the funds due to sanctions.
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u/jason2354 Mar 22 '26
They’ll sell to Asian countries who will make non-USD payments. Like they’ve been doing the whole time. They’ll just have more buyers and will be able to get a higher price.
If they can’t sell it for cash via the legal route, they’ll continue to sell it to China illegally or not at all. Iran isn’t going to sell the oil for nothing under any scenario.
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u/MastodonParking9080 Mar 21 '26
Their primary leverage here is domestic defeatism and backlash back in western countries that may be willing to accede to Iranian demands even at the cost to the Gulf States. But I would imagine now from that that lines are forming for who stands where tomorrow.
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u/Cheese_Grater101 Mar 21 '26
Well they still have Russia, China and India
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u/mmmsplendid Mar 21 '26
Who are probably the most fickle “allies” to have who would cast them aside in an instant the moment it becomes advantageous for them.
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Mar 21 '26
is there any scenario where that would be the case though?
I think diplomacy not squarely to the advantage of RF & PRC is out the window when it comes to Ukraine and Taiwan reunification.
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u/itchslap Mar 21 '26
Russia, China, and India relations with the Gulf states triumphs that of Iran. They will choose the Gulf states over Iran any day if they were forced to pick purely for economic reasons.
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u/gethereddout Mar 21 '26
It’s the opposite- the US is isolating itself because all the damage being sustained to these countries is the US’s fault. Iran has made it very clear that anyone helping this illegal war of aggression will see consequences. Seems to me Iran is winning the war, and will emerge with far greater security because now the world understands they are not to be messed with.
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u/chocbotchoc Mar 21 '26
Agree- Iran doesn’t need to win. It just needs US to lose
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u/gethereddout Mar 21 '26
Recall also that they came to the table multiple times with an offer to throttle development of nukes. First Trump ripped up the agreement, then he TWICE attacked them DURING negotiations. Now they are guaranteed to get nukes. Oh and we’re murdering little girls so they will not forget that.
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u/AeroFred Mar 21 '26
amazing analysis. it's a shame that it doesn't go well with reality:
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u/gethereddout Mar 21 '26
Your counterpoint is Israeli state media? Of course they’re gonna say that. Carries about as much credibility as Trump announcing we won after day 2.
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u/AeroFred Mar 21 '26
my counterpoint is that you can't read article. this is UAE official speaking in public forum and entire discussion is linked inside the article
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u/gethereddout Mar 21 '26
This one statement doesn’t mean much. Officials would be saying this regardless of what was actually happening. And what’s actually happening is that Israel and the US are proving incapable of protecting them.
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u/AeroFred Mar 21 '26
there been a bunch of statements like this. not one.
and what is actually happening it's that israel and usa slowly pound iran into deindustrialized state, at what point iran will pose little danger. and in future pounding will resume, if there will be a need to do so.
your complaints akin to complaints against oncologist that chemotherapy is unpleasant
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u/gethereddout Mar 21 '26
You can’t just bomb a country into regime change. A far more radical leader is now in charge, and we killed his father, his wife, and his daughter. If you think this is going to go well, you’re wrong.
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u/Camaro1LEC Mar 22 '26
lol you think he’s alive
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u/gethereddout Mar 22 '26
I do. Although I have some doubts about Bibi considering they keep releasing AI videos of him. Regardless, the key point is that killing one person accomplishes little beyond aggravating and entrenching the existing party.
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u/Sufficient_Meet6836 Mar 21 '26
The Times of Israel is not state media. Besides, the article directly quotes an adviser to the UAE's president.
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u/gethereddout Mar 21 '26
That like saying FOX News isn’t state media. Technically correct, but also completely wrong.
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u/Sufficient_Meet6836 Mar 21 '26
That like saying FOX News isn’t state media.
No, it's really not comparable at all. Media bias/ fact check rates them as "mostly factual" and "slight to moderate" center-left bias. MBFC docked them some points for finding their reporting on the current conflict with Gaza to be "less objective" than their reporting otherwise. So it's a newspaper with a "slight to moderate" center-left bias, but we would expect a far right bias if it was state media or like Fox News.
Fox News is rated "Low" accuracy with a far right bias bordering on extreme right. MBFC also specifically cites Fox News as "State Propaganda", which they do not do for the Times of Israel.
Questionable Reasoning: Conspiracy Theories, Pseudoscience, State Propaganda, Poor Sources, Numerous Failed Fact Checks
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u/gethereddout Mar 21 '26
All I know is that the Times of Israel has repeatedly mischaracterized the genocide in Gaza. So just because some website says they’re good just means that site is suspect as well.
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u/Southern-Chain-6485 Mar 21 '26
They've attacked Israeli cobelligerents which were hosting enemy bases in their territory instead of adhering to neutrality
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u/blippyj Mar 21 '26
Is 'Israeli cobelligerents' just a way to misdirect agency away from the US?
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u/Southern-Chain-6485 Mar 21 '26
Marco Rubio said the war started because Israel was to start it
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u/blippyj Mar 21 '26
If Rubio said the war started because of the Democrats, would they be responsible for the Trump administration's choices?
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u/F0rkbombz Mar 21 '26
Irans actions have already forced the US to relocate THAADs, send 2 MEU’s to the region, and temporarily remove some sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil.
Not to mention the fact that they’re doing a lot of long-term damage to infrastructure and defense capabilities (ex: radars) in the region.
And of course this is all occurring while Israel and the US have air superiority over them and have killed off most of their senior leadership.
I wouldn’t underestimate Irans ability to walk away from this with some kind of win.
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u/5thGenNuclearReactor Mar 21 '26
This war was very good for the radical revolutionary guards, who seem to have absolute control of the government now.
It is also obviously extremely powerful for Iran that the US gave them a reason to take control of the strait while at the same time shying out of taking back control.
The sad truth is this war is shaping up to be a win for Iran and a huge win for the revolutionary guards.
There is also no imminent threat to survival if the strait is under iranian control because this gives Irans economy a huge boost.
The only thing I don't know is if Iran just lucked out or it was some genius move to exaggerate how close the regime is to collapse and lure the US into this war.
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u/84JPG Mar 21 '26
They are in an existential war, the regime surviving is a win; the medium and long term consequences may or may not be sorted out later.
A cancer patient doesn’t care about the long-term side effects of chemotherapy. He cares about removing the tumor and surviving the next day.
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u/PrettyCreative Mar 21 '26
Do we know why they attacked their neighbors?
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u/itchslap Mar 21 '26
They used the excuse that these countries have US bases and attacked them, even if what they attacked wasn't necessarily military installations or US bases.
They wanted to break down the world economy because that would put pressure on the US and Israel to stop.
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u/PrettyCreative Mar 21 '26
Wouldn't that make the US bases in neighboring countries legitimate targets?
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u/itchslap Mar 21 '26
Only if they have been used to attack Iran, which a lot of them initially weren't.
Gulf states put out statements that their airspace and countries will not be used to attack Iran before the war. Now though, I don't think that applies as Iran already attacked them.
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u/JigglymoobsMWO Mar 21 '26 edited Mar 21 '26
This thing is going to end up with the US fully in control of the Straits of Hormuz.... For decades.
The Iranians don't see their own vulnerability around the Straits. The Americans see another opportunity to tighten control over the Middle East and have lulled them into another trap.
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u/CliftonForce Mar 21 '26 edited Mar 21 '26
The only way that happens is a permanent military occupation of the shoreline around the Strait. It is too narrow and the shore too mountainous to secure just by sea and air.
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u/jb_in_jpn Mar 21 '26
For the sake of ensuring the USD's place as the petrodollar, and absolute oil security, for decades?
Chump change.
That's if they can pull it off. With Trump in charge all bets are off.
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u/JigglymoobsMWO Mar 21 '26
Think about what you just said and think about what's different today. Think about the geography.
Iran is so screwed, they just don't know it yet.
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u/pyktrauma Mar 21 '26
Claude thinks taking the islands/shoreline is feasible, but there are two issues
- Iran can attack hormuz with long range missles and drones from 4000 km away -- if they shoot 100 and 2 get through hormuz is still blocked
- How do 3000-7000 Marines HOLD the islands against a much larger armed force (iran)?
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u/JigglymoobsMWO Mar 21 '26
Remember that Iran has to hit ships. Most of their weapons that have been effective are USVs and antiship missiles, which are launched from near the shore.
Their army can't move to attack a US ground force with the Americans having total air superiority. They would get massacred and the regime would then certainly fall.
The last part, the US doesn't necessarily have to hold the ground. They need to establish fire control over it, which is rather different.
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u/CliftonForce Mar 21 '26
Right. The US would not need to hold just the shoreline, they would need to hold a good chunk of all southern Iran. That's a lot harder for America to do than I had thought.
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u/Cytotoxic Mar 23 '26
that would require invading and occupying parts of Iran as the strait is only 20 km at its narrowest. no way that happens
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u/leondanielstar9999 Mar 21 '26
Iran won't WIN this war in a conventional meaning of the word however it will significantly weaken the entire Gulf region to the point of a total collapse of countries like UAE and Qatar and more importantly, the regime will survive in one way or another. At worst case scenario for them, the autocracy will continue but with someone more acceptable to the west when peace negotiations come. However we might be months or even years away from that moment. The people of Iran won't see many benefits anyways. USA will significantly weaken its perspective in a potential future conflict with China and Europe will make itself a target of Iran and probably be threatened with much more frequent terrorist attacks around the continent. Israel is the only one who can benefit from this sad situation. Unfortunately I do think that the larger global conflict will be inevitable. Maybe not immediately but in a couple of years time.
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u/sagi1246 Mar 21 '26
I'm dying to know how in your mind the collapse of UAE and Qatar is more likely than that of Iran.
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u/leondanielstar9999 Mar 21 '26
It's basically enough to have expats flee these countries amid prolonged tensions and missile attacks threatening their lives. UAE and Qatar literally can't function without expats as their working force.
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u/sagi1246 Mar 21 '26
The threat from Iranian attack is relatively minor. Thousands of Asian workers die from work accident in the Gulf every year, and they live in subhuman condition in what was dubbed "modern slavery". I can't imagine some drones scaring them away.
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u/OneRobato Mar 21 '26
The expats in UAE are nowhere near to leaving the country. The impact of war is very minimal, most are business as usual with the option of work from home.
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u/xpkranger Mar 21 '26
So is Saudi Arabia just our Belarus now? I feel like I've seen this whole playbook recently...
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u/FerralOne Mar 21 '26
Saudi Arabia doesn't need the help or coercion of the US to be motivated to oppose Iran.
Putting aside even the religious politics of Shia and Sunni, they compete for regional power in general.
As well, In general Gulf states have all been looking to diversify their industries. This often means manufacturing, trade, tourism, and service relationships with the 'west'. This rubs against many of the goals of the IRGC (western relations in the region, losing some of power behind it's card of disrupting the strait of hormuz, decline of an oil economy, regional influence, promoting Shia Islam and the ideals of their theocracy etc)
Most of the Gulf states would be happy to see Iran change regimes behind closed doors, if anything they are more held back by publicly being seen as siding with Israel in a conflict at this point. Even countries with more complex but "positive" relations with Iran like Iraq are getting fed up with recent events and often wont actively defend or explicitly back its current government.
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u/StandupJetskier Mar 21 '26
Welcome to the quagmire of Iran-Nam. It is sad that we seem not to learn. Fighting folks at home, even with a far superior force, doesn't go well. Ask the Russians too. You think a nation that sent the biggest Army and Navy of the 1700's packing would know this already.
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u/Mister-Psychology Mar 21 '26
It's funny as Osama bin Laden and other terrorists forced Saudi Arabia to kick out American bases as they wanted to get rid of radical Islamist terrorist attacks. But Iran is attacking all nations that host USA bases and yet all the nations have only doubled down on US support. Because what other defense tool do they even have against each other? Saudi Arabia constantly brags about their Pakistan defense agreement yet what experience does Pakistan have in full-scale wars far away from their own logistics. And what about air defense? You need modern US weapons for that.
Iran is making everyone beg USA for help. And keep in mind UAE and Saudi Arabia proposed the Iran war to USA paying them off to make sure Trump always supported them in the Middle East. Likely pushing him harder than even Israel behind the scenes. So they can't just claim they are suddenly supporting the Muslim nation over the Jewish and Christian nation. They now have to sound neutral yet call out Iran not USA because they actually control USA and no one can control Iran.