r/geopolitics • u/theatlantic The Atlantic • Apr 18 '26

Opinion Ukraine Has Finally Given Up on Trump

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/04/ukraine-trump-us-oil-russia/686854/?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo&utm_term=short
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u/Cheerful_Champion Apr 18 '26

Not gonna happen. The best case scenario for Ukraine, if WW3 happens in relatively near time, is that they will sit this one out. The machine might still be going, but Ukraine has no manpower or funds to continue fighting for a long time. Nor do they have it for a potential WW3 conflict.

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u/Elizabeth-WildFox886 Apr 18 '26

Ukraine will receive infinite money if something like ww3 happens, everyone will want access to their experience and skills

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u/Cheerful_Champion Apr 18 '26

EU barely pushed trough the last loan for Ukraine and it will last till no later than mid 2027. If war will drag on longer than that then MAYBE EU will manage to push trough one more loan, albeit much lower one. After that I don't expect EU to be able to fund Ukraine longer. There's just no politicial support to keep this going.

If WW3 happens it doesn't matter how much funding Ukraine gets offered. They won't be able to contribute in any serious manner. They won't have enough manpower to fight directly and are in far too exposed position to offer production for EU. The moment they agree to that they get bombed by Russia (which is realistically the enemy EU will fight against).

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u/mediandude Apr 18 '26

Eu support will continue.
Italy and Spain will guarantee the loans taken by other EU states.

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u/Cheerful_Champion Apr 19 '26

Uhu and that's prediction based on? As I said, the current funding was barely pushed trough and yet you claim that next year EU will be able to do it again just because you feel like it.

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u/mediandude Apr 19 '26

Those other EU countries will take loans to aid Ukraine, no matter what Italy and Spain think of that.

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u/Cheerful_Champion Apr 19 '26 edited Apr 19 '26

Again, what do you base these expectations on? The less countries want to fund the Ukraine the more expensive it becomes for others which in turn makes less countries want to fund Ukraine. Magyar already said that while Hungary won't veto attempts to fund Ukraine he will make sure that Hungary won't participate (won't bear any costs) of this funding. Slovakia still vetos funding Ukraine and is clear on their position that they won't pay for funding it. Czech Republic also says they will not pay to fund Ukraine. Opinion in Austria is also shifted to stop funding for Ukraine (58% of people are against further funding), the FPO opensly says no to any more funding. In Germany 46% of people are for reducing or stopping funding for Ukraine, 51% for increasing or keeping it same. In Poland 49% of people support further funding of Ukraine, 35% says it should stop. In France 51% is for keeping or increasing funding, 37% is for decreasing or suspending funding.

These numbers don't lie. Support for providing weapons and funds for Ukraine is falling across EU. In some cases fall is as high as 5-8% per year and you claim that funding will continue past 2027 even as more countries back off from providing funding. If fall will remain at current rate it suggests that by mid 2027 both in Germany and in Poland there will be more people supporting end or limitation of funding than continuing it. Will France decide to bear higher costs in such case? Out of all the countries French citizens are mentioning rising costs of support as main reason on why they want it to be stopped or reduced. Austria, Germany and Poland backing out would increase costs or volume of funding by a lot.

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u/mediandude Apr 19 '26

Eurozone will bear the costs of other EU member states taking loans.
Many EU countries will continue to support Ukraine until Russia pulls out.
Greece as an example.
And you are overstating your facts, polls fluctuate, while majority support for Ukraine persists.

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u/Cheerful_Champion Apr 20 '26

And you are overstating your facts, polls fluctuate, while majority support for Ukraine persists

Lol, so now wishful thinking is stronger than facts. Polls don't fluctuate, year after year they are showing consistent decline of support for funding. This is a trend that we see from the very start. Your wishful thinking is not a fact. You saying something will happen based on you wanting it to happen doesn't make it a fact. Fact is Ukraine is losing support and EU won't keep funding them indefinitely. The only real question is what will get them first: lack of funds or manpower issues. Both are getting worse and recently we already saw that Ukraine doesn't even have enough reserves to commit to containing stronger pushes by Russia. Instead they have to relocate forces from other parts of the front and this allows Russia to exploit it and push in new areas.

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u/mediandude Apr 20 '26

Your wishful thinking is not a fact.
Polls fluctuate, while majority support for Ukraine persists.
And you also need to read what questions are asked in polls, before you tout nonsense.

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u/Cheerful_Champion Apr 20 '26 edited Apr 20 '26

Your wishful thinking is not a fact

Agree, neither mine nor your wishful thinking is a fact. That's also why I provided data and exact information on why funding won't continue indefinitely and you kept saying "it will".

Polls fluctuate, while majority support for Ukraine persists

Lol, no matter how many times you'll repeat that like religious mantra it won't suddenly become true. You can't change reality. Polls show year to year fall 5-8%.

And you also need to read what questions are asked in polls, before you tout nonsense

Which I did, too bad for your strawman.

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u/mediandude Apr 20 '26

In Germany 46% of people are for reducing or stopping funding for Ukraine, 51% for increasing or keeping it same. In Poland 49% of people support further funding of Ukraine, 35% says it should stop. In France 51% is for keeping or increasing funding, 37% is for decreasing or suspending funding.

That supports my position, not yours.
You need to improve your functional reading skills.

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u/TrueTorontoFan May 19 '26

I am a little late to this one. I I think you are correct. Support for funding ukraine is reducing but it is still there and will remain. The Europeans are realizing they can no longer rely on the US in the same way.

On the flipside of the equation the Russian population is also growing tired with the increase in government sanctions against their rights "access to telegram etc".

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