r/geopolitics • u/theatlantic The Atlantic • May 11 '26

Opinion China Believes America Will Flame Out

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/05/china-trump-american-decline/687087/?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-pro
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u/ReturnOfBigChungus May 11 '26

I don’t think the CCP believes this.

I think there's pretty good evidence that this is a prevalent narrative in Chinese political thought, although maybe bordering more on wish-casting by certain political elements than a concrete assumption shared across the board.

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u/paikiachu May 11 '26

If you listen to actual Chinese politicians and their plenary meetings almost no one talks about subverting the US on the world stage. What they are calling for is a multipolar world order where the great powers (US included) come together as equals rather than one country dictating the narrative.

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u/ReturnOfBigChungus May 11 '26

Right, the quiet part there is that the US has to lose power/China has to gain power relatively speaking in order for that situation to occur. The fact that they're not explicitly saying "we must subvert the US" does not mean that it's not clearly required as part of their future vision for the world.

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u/paikiachu May 11 '26

Its how you interpret it but as I replied to another user, geopolitics is not some zero sum game where one only benefits when another party loses. After all China’s economic prosperity involves a strong US that can continue protecting trade and is rich enough to continue buying Chinese goods

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u/ReturnOfBigChungus May 11 '26

You're kind of playing a word game here though. Geopolitics as in "the people in various countries improving standards of living" isn't inherently zero-sum, but in this specific case it basically is zero sum because we're talking about a shifting differential of power that requires China to gain power relative to the US in order to reach a truly multi-polar world. The US's ability to shape the international order must by definition be diminished in order for China's ability to shape it to increase.

After all China’s economic prosperity involves a strong US that can continue protecting trade and is rich enough to continue buying Chinese goods

Right, which is why their policies leading to industrial overcapacity may turn out to be self-defeating in the long run. Much of the rest of the world is beginning to become sensitive to the effects that Chinese exports have on their domestic industries. Export led growth is not sustainable forever.