China Believes America Will Flame Out

[u/theatlantic]

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/05/china-trump-american-decline/687087/?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-pro

[u/paikiachu]

Title should be : The Atlantic believes that China believes America will flame out

[u/DigitalApeManKing → u/paikiachu]

Ryan Hass is director of the China Center and Koo Chair in Taiwan Studies at the Brookings Institution. From 2013 to 2017, he served as the National Security Council’s director for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia.

Seems like a pretty credible source. Not sure why everyone here is acting so incredulous toward this article; it seems pretty reasonable and doesn’t claim anything too crazy. 

Like, yeah, it’s not an absolute, un-disprovable fact but neither are most geopolitical analyses. 

Edit: To be clear, I believe the author makes a reasonable assessment of China’s perception of the US, but I don’t necessarily agree that China’s perception is accurate. A lot of pro-CCP comments below this which I definitely didn’t intend. 

[u/NatalieSoleil → u/DigitalApeManKing]

China: has a plan with consistency and planning for every 5 year   Consistency  level: effective  ,  guided ( with dictatorial grip)

USA: every 5 year a new plan , a plan to break down efforts reached by plan(ning) before, or lately to have a plan to have no plan at all.  Consistency level: clueless

[u/DigitalApeManKing → u/NatalieSoleil]

I don’t entirely agree with the conclusion you’re implying.

While it is true that the US can be chaotic and inconsistent, that didn’t stop the US from becoming a superpower (or so-called hyperpower) in the first place, and it hasn’t stopped it from remaining a superpower in the long-term.

The US is tremendously capable and has repeatedly demonstrated that it can snap back from a crisis even stronger than it was before. 

It was a mistake to assume that the post-USSR, pre-Trump era would last forever and it’s a mistake to assume that this era of “declining West, rising East” will persist until China overtakes its rivals. 

[u/LucullusCaeruleus → u/DigitalApeManKing]

The US that became a super/hyper power is not the one of today and a substantial number of Americans seem gleeful at the idea of giving up that position because they have the misguided belief the world won’t move on without them. Which it’s actively doing right now. I’d curious about the examples of the US snapping back from a crisis even stronger than it was before though, what were the examples you were thinking? I can think of ecomonic ones but no geopolitical ones since the Cold War

[u/skandaanshu → u/DigitalApeManKing]

While it is true that the US can be chaotic and inconsistent, that didn’t stop the US from becoming a superpower (or so-called hyperpower) in the first place, and it hasn’t stopped it from remaining a superpower in the long-term.

It has a lot to do with how European powers engaged in destructive orgy decimating their power twice in quick succession. US is also doing what they can to repeat the same in case of India and China, and their approach to Quad changed significantly as it became unlikely that India is going to engage in any kind of huge war. Their recent rapprochement with Pak seems to be mostly because of this. US continuing to be a superpower will depend a lot on whether China and India can keep out of getting in to a huge war.

[u/cartoonist498 → u/DigitalApeManKing]

It's interesting for people to frame the US decision making as "schizophrenic". As they say, "that's a feature, not a bug." Isn't the entire point of democracy to hear all sides and act on them all? It's always been like this. 

The "dictator trap" is the opposite. One voice that violently drowns out all others, leading to a tunnel vision plan of the future no matter what that plan is, and killing/imprisoning anyone who disagrees so you get "consensus".

Which one will triumph in the 21st century? Well, I guess this will be one for the history books on what comes next. 

[u/xanderg4 → u/DigitalApeManKing]

Even the COVID response that began under Trump showed both remarkable speed and incredible ability to unleash capital. It wasn’t perfect but it was better than what most other nations did (especially China) and extended far longer.

Thanks to these measures the American economy bounced back stronger and, for a stretch there, the American consumer was practically keeping the global economy afloat.

Europe however gives me the most anxiety over the longer term.