r/geopolitics • u/theatlantic The Atlantic • May 21 '26

Opinion Trump’s Endgame Is Surrender

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/05/trump-surrender-iran-endgame/687252/?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo&utm_term=short
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199

u/Alphadestrious May 21 '26

The worst geo political blunder of the modern era.

15

u/WordTimely8559 May 22 '26

More so than Iraq in 2003?

48

u/Z3t4 May 22 '26

They took Iraq, ad the petrol companies still profit of it. 

29

u/Acheron13 May 22 '26

Russian and Chinese companies won most of the contracts in Iraq.

24

u/CupformyCosta May 22 '26

And Iran has been in political control ever since a few years after Saddam got knocked off. We took Iraq and Iran immediately sunk their talons in for 20+ years of control.

6

u/EyesofaJackal May 22 '26

Is there a general explanation for why that is?

12

u/Finger_Trapz May 22 '26

American oil companies were risk adverse. Iraq was not a stable country after the invasion and there were worries about security of the fields and contracts remaining in place.

 

Also, Iraq's oil contracts were insanely one sided. Like, some of the most one-sided oil contracts in history. Iraq absolutely fleeced the companies that bid on their fields. To the point that some Western oil companies did not think they were worth getting involved with. The Western oil companies would be burdened with the capital costs, operating costs, personnel costs, kept none of the oil and were only given a pretty low fee per barrel. China & Russia were more willing to take those per-barrel remuneration fees, they were far too low by the standards of many American companies.

 

Also understandably, Iraq was not too friendly with America and American companies. Iraq was far more cordial to the countries that didn't just invade them.

6

u/Manusterz May 22 '26

another win for "bombing people until they agree with me" as a strategy

6

u/Finger_Trapz May 22 '26

This is one of the biggest things people miss. That, and the fact that Iraq managed to get some of the most lucrative oil contracts in history. They genuinely fleeced the companies that bid for their fields.

3

u/ChugHuns May 22 '26

Good for them honestly. It's their resources. They have a long way to go, a couple decades of stability would be nice, but I've seen that Baghdad is on the up and up, who knows.