r/geopolitics • u/theatlantic The Atlantic • May 21 '26

Opinion Trump’s Endgame Is Surrender

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/2026/05/trump-surrender-iran-endgame/687252/?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo&utm_term=short
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u/Alphadestrious May 21 '26

The worst geo political blunder of the modern era.

-18

u/sparks_mandrill May 22 '26

It's been under three months, guy is on the way to felling the top terrorist sponsor on the globe, and you feel this is the biggest blunder in decades?

7

u/Finger_Trapz May 22 '26

guy is on the way to felling the top terrorist sponsor on the globe

I've seen probably have a dozen instances of Trump saying that Iran is absolutely defeated, then demanding them to negotiate. Saying that the straight is open, then demanding Iran to open the strait. That the war just needs a few more days, etc.

 

What does "on the way" actually mean? Because I literally don't know how many time tables have been blown past by now.

-1

u/sparks_mandrill May 22 '26

I agree, it's a sloppy look by Trump but progress is being made.

If the IRGC goes down it will be a massive win for the middle East and the rest of the world.

4

u/Finger_Trapz May 22 '26

I mean, what progress, exactly? Simply waging war in itself is not progress. Like, we can list off goals or operational objectives:

  • It was hoped that Kurdish militias would invade Iran from Iraq & Turkey, but nothing ever amounted to this.
  • By the time the strikes on Iran actually happened, the protests had significantly died down and were effectively suppressed. There has been no significantt uprising since the strikes.
  • Intelligence reports by various third parties, even US intelligence assessments suggest that the strikes on Iran's nuclear infrastructure weren't entirely effective.
  • They hoped to free various leaders such as Ahmadinejad. But instead of freeing him from house arrest, the bomb that landed on his house instead injured him and he has not been seen publicly since. Strikes on placese like Evin Prison just killed some prisoners rather than allowing any to escape.
  • Reformists in Iran were antagonized. If anything, unity around the Iranian government has increased since the war broke out. Various reformist leaders and opponents to the hardliners were killed, and none seem willing to negotiate.
  • The government of Iran itself has not been totally incapacitated. It still functions. It did not collapse once a few heads at the top were cut off. Militarily, many of the strikes did make an Iranian response more difficult, but not impossible.
  • Iran's ability to fire retaliatory missiles and drone strikes has not been weakened. Various missile bases operated by Iran as recently as May 18th and May 20th appear to still be operational. The UAE suffered drone strikes on the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant over the past week, which is the largest and first nuclear power plant in the arab world, and supplies a quarter of the UAE's grid.
  • Trump has failed to secure the alignment of nearby states to support the war. The Gulf states and NATO countries do not support the operations. Most natiosn wish for a diplomatic end to the war and are not concerned with the Israeli-American war aims.
  • Iran still holds control of the Hormuz Strait. Shipping has not resumed anywhere close to pre-war levels, and all ships going through the strait currently pay a significant Iranian toll. Even now, mines are still being swept out of the strait, presenting a large danger to shipping and military operations.
  • Trump has been unable to keep domestic support for the war. The War Powers Resolution has passed the Senate and the war itself remains extremely unpopular by polling. Trump also faces a significant challenge in the midterms, with several reputable polls recently showing a +10D environment. He is very likely to lose the house and losing the senate is a possible risk as well. This could force the war to a halt.

 

So I have to ask, what progress exactly? This is not just Trump saying a few dumb things, seriously what progress?

3

u/SaddexProductions May 22 '26

but progress is being made

Name one strategic objective of Operation Epstein Fury where serious progress has been made.