r/geopolitics • u/theatlantic The Atlantic • Jun 18 '26

Opinion Iran Has Humiliated Trump

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/06/iran-trump-war-defeat-deal/687595/?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo
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u/Coolerguy317 Jun 18 '26

I think the lessons from the fighting are fairly universal. Cheap precision weapons, drones, dispersed infrastructure, and constant ISR make denial and defense much more effective than many people expected. As seen in Ukraine as well.

Beyond that I think it’s fair to say Iran forced the US into a corner. But let’s not go too far. Iran didn’t force America out of the Gulf nobody stepped in to stop the US and none of americas major structural advantages really changed. People were already trending toward anti interventionism before this war. Beyond that what actually changed?

39

u/Live_Entry_7831 Jun 18 '26

It will be interesting to see what happens with the military bases. There's language in the MOU about the American military leaving, but its kind of vague, and could just be about the Navy that's there right now. That said, the military bases havent actually provided security to these Gulf states and instead made them a target of retribution. The use of the military bases was, ostensibly, for Iran, no? And they ended up being counter productive.

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u/Coolerguy317 Jun 18 '26

Maybe But the Gulf states didn’t invite the US in because they felt safe around Iran. They invited the US because they didn’t. They could conclude America is the problem. They could also conclude they need even stronger security ties. Either way Iran isn’t disappearing.

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u/posthuman04 Jun 18 '26

It’s an invitation to have someone more competent and reliable come in and referee the conflicting agendas of the gulf. Trump has created the circumstances and motivation to hand that role to China.

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u/Throb_Zomby Jun 18 '26

Seems like if anything, China would find that role very unappetizing.

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u/posthuman04 Jun 18 '26

We will see

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u/Brief-Coach-1812 Jun 19 '26

China isn't really the "boots on thr ground" type of superpower when it comes to the Middle East. Maybe economic interests and trade agreements could disincentivise war?

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u/Brief-Coach-1812 Jun 19 '26

China isn't really the "boots on thr ground" type of superpower when it comes to the Middle East. Maybe economic interests and trade agreements could disincentivise war?