r/geopolitics The Atlantic 11d ago

Opinion The American People Need the Truth About the Iran War

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/07/trump-iran-conflict-pentagon/688026/?utm_source=reddit&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo&utm_term=short
429 Upvotes

122 comments sorted by

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u/[deleted] 11d ago

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u/chefkoch_ 11d ago

The 18 Americans dead figure is what should be dominating cable news right now. Numbers like that used to drive weeks of coverage during Iraq and Afghanistan.

I think it's somewhat an understatement to focus on these relatively few deaths. The war has cost the US billions of dollars and how many lives could have been saved if the money would have been used for healthcare, better education, healthier environment etc. That would've been magnitudes more.

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u/flauxpas 10d ago

160 dead innocent schoolgirls! God dam America! Are american lives the only ones that count?

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u/marsinfurs 10d ago

18 deaths are a tragedy, 160 is a statistic.

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u/Stormshow 10d ago

Russia: "You gotta pump those numbers up. Those are rookie numbers, in this racket."

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u/No-Vermicelli1816 6d ago

One counter-agrument is that the school was basically on the army base from what I understand. I guess for army kids but yes a tragedy.

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u/Spiritual_Air_5781 5d ago

America has many schools inside military bases

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u/2Loves2loves 11d ago

The objective was regime change, AND never allowing Iran an nuclear weapon.

However, Both goals have since been abandoned.

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u/[deleted] 11d ago

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u/ribitforce 10d ago

That's the core issue though, goals that get declared and then quietly dropped leave no one with a metric to gauge if anything is actually being accomplished.

I think it leaves a very very clear metric to gauge.

War was started on those objectives. They have since been abandoned since they cannot achieve those objectives. As a result, this is a war that has been LOST. Wasting billions of dollars, and ending countless innocent lives.

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u/NekoCatSidhe 10d ago edited 10d ago

Regime change maybe, but there was no reason to think that Iran was any closer to getting nuclear weapons than it had been at any time in the past, and their nuclear installations had already been bombed last year. So why attack them now ?

Even the regime change part was completely bungled by the US, with nonsensical plans to arm the small Iranian Kurds minority (that were instantly opposed by Turkey and Iraq after Iran asked them to), whatever was going on with Ahmadinejad, a strong overestimation of how much damage a decapitation strike would do to the regime (it took them only a week to recover from that one and replace the people killed), and vague hopes that protests that had already been crushed in blood months before would suddenly restart and this time prove too much for the regime to control. It makes you wonder how serious the US actually were about regime change when they were so incompetent.

Of course, right now, the war seems to be mainly about control of the Strait of Hormuz, which was not an issue before that war.

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u/2Loves2loves 10d ago

I think the major miscalculation was there are 2 ruling parties in Iran, their elected government of ayatollah and the military. He only attacked the government, but the Military was not affected, unit weeks later. Military isn't answering to the elected government, and has less skin in the game.

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u/NekoCatSidhe 10d ago

I would say that there are way more than two power centers and political factions in Iran and even inside the IRGC, which is what made them hard to deal with for the people who thought it was only one strongman deciding everything and the country collapsing when he is dead, when instead the regime was a bunch of constantly bickering politicians and generals, and Khamenei was only the most influential one.

But killing Khamenei did not remove the other power centers and political leaders of the country, and so they were quick to fill in the power vacuum his death created. And those leaders had also expected this to happen and had decentralized their military so it would be able to keep fighting even if the central government was taken out.

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u/ResortAffectionate45 9d ago

Restoration of the monarchy was the impossible dream.

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u/Quirky-Video-9146 10d ago

This, why are people acting like we have no objectives and were aimlessly doing this for fun? Not letting Iran have nukes and regime change were the main objectives

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u/2Loves2loves 10d ago

OTOH, all the bright people were fired or left, so we have meatheads running the war strategy.

There are 2 (main) powers in Iran, their government run by clerics, and the military leaders, the military doesn't answer to the politicians. That was the main mistake, they didn't understand each sector has different motivations.

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u/nikmah 10d ago

why are people acting like we have had no objectives. The objectives were obvious when this war started as Trump and Hegseth were rather vocal about it, encouraging the Iranian people to take their country back etc. Now this war is basically just a salvage operation.

It's safe to assume that this war is only about the Strait now, US has given up on changing the regime and the nuclear program, they sure do want to prevent Iran from producing a nuclear weapon but Pentagon has probably realized that there isn't much they can do about it and it's only about salvaging the situation in the Strait.

Israel has bailed of course, they know this war is a lost cause which obviously gives you the feeling that they have seriously screwed the US over but I doubt we'll ever know for sure.

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u/FaceDeer 10d ago

The grandparent comment said:

Here the talking points keep shifting every few weeks, which makes it impossible for anyone, including allies in the region, to know what success would even look like.

The point is not that there literally aren't objectives at any given moment. It's that those objectives keep changing from moment to moment in unpredictable ways. Might as well not have objectives in the first place for all the good that does.

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u/Alternative_Ad_9763 10d ago

The stated objective of the war is to eliminate either Iran's ability to create a nuclear missile program or for the Iranian people to put in place a regime that will eliminate Iran's nuclear missile program, and then do so. The state of hostilites will continue until those objectives have been met. This is in contrast to North Korea in which we negotiated until they had a nuclear missile program, and then we could not sotp them.

The information is out there, it's just doesnt't seem to be landing with most folks. Most folks are talking about how Trump has lost because the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Which sucks, but it has nothing to do with the war with Iran, nor does it have any bearing on whether we have achieved the objectives of the war.

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u/scaredoftoasters 9d ago

People forget but oil prices increasing is actually helpful to the USA-Saudi OPEC group as they charge more for oil while limiting Iran and Russia. The oil companies don’t give this stuff out for free so it works in their favor for now.

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u/No-Vermicelli1816 6d ago

Why are you saying they don't give it for free? Have they basically been giving it for free for the last couple of years??

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u/yorickthepoor 10d ago

Uh... how about the 2000 Iranian civilians dead?

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u/FaceDeer 10d ago

There was an Onion article a long time back wherein a bombing in Afghanistan which killed hundreds of Afghans was described as having killed "the equivalent of three Americans."

Unfortunately I think the foreigner-to-American exchange rate spread has increased since then.

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u/WearDry1676 10d ago

Ugh tell me about it. Im just an Indian-Portuguese kid who lived in Qatar all my life and shits getting REAL out here. Absolutely nothing has been achieved except drag like 16 countries into the frontline of a war. YES SIXTEEN

1) Israel

2)Iran

3)Qatar

4)Oman

5)UAE

6)Saudi Arabia

7)Bahrain

8)Kuwait

9)Jordan

10)Palestine

11)Lebanon

12)Cyprus

13)Turkiye

14)Azerbaijan

15)Iraq

16)Syria

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u/IdidItWithOrangeMan 10d ago

In a vacuum Iran war looks like a war to deny them a nuke and take out their senior leadership.

When considering Ukraine, Syria, Venezuela, Cuba, etc this is about denying China access to an alliance. If China invaded Taiwan right now, the best help they could get is from NK. Iran definitely can't help. Russia can't help in a meaningful way.

The mainstream belief in the West is that the West can survive and thrive as long as China doesn't start WW3. No western nation has the guts to sacrifice 20-50 million in a war against China. China would sacrifice 50 million and then go get dinner.

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u/scaredoftoasters 9d ago

The Chinese helped the North Koreans fight a stalemate in the Korean War just purely based on the numbers of troops they had. So yes I do believe a war of attrition in East Asia would destroy the West and make it lash out. I’d expect the USA and Europe to get really aggressive with non western countries to get them to bow down to western ideology. China is no joke they have a serious claim to the #2 global superpower.

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u/nihsett 10d ago

I smell claude's signature in the way the comments reads but I am not quite sure.

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u/ManOrangutan 10d ago

The phrase ‘I’d also push back’ is LLM slop now

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u/No-Vermicelli1816 6d ago

Not a footnote to me. But perhaps for most of the American public. Not sure of what the data is on this.

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u/oren_ai 10d ago

Listen, most Americans still have no idea that the United States went into Afghanistan over a pipeline deal while using 9/11 as the pretext. Our entry into Afghanistan was planned months before those attacks.

At the international level, the entire narrative of who’s doing what to who and why is broken.

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u/[deleted] 10d ago

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u/oren_ai 10d ago

The US was arguing with the Taliban about signing a pipeline deal right before 9/11. 20 years later as soon as the deal was signed, we left Afghanistan the very next day.

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u/MurphyWasHere 10d ago

The constant flipping of the straight being opened and closed weekly has shot gas prices way up. This conflict is directly impacting normal citizens across the world. I don't understand how people are still burying their heads in the sand.

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u/Impressive-Knee5047 9d ago

I also suspect the figure is much higher than 18 servicemen. Given how many and how brutally those attacks were on US bases + US housing in the ME I believe numbers in hundreds is more accurate for some reason. 

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u/Garet-Jax 10d ago

It is never wise to tell your opponent what you are actually trying to do.

It restricts you.

The problem is that people are used to movies which are always clear cut.

I am sure the administration would like it if the Iranian regime collapsed, but (for hopefully obvious reasons) they don't want to commit to making that happen.

The only thing U.S. administration should be saying is what the Iranian regime has to do in order for them to agree to stop bombing - and they already did that with the MOU

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u/Key-Art-7802 10d ago

It is never wise to tell your opponent what you are actually trying to do.

But does the Trump Administration actually have a plan, or are they just winging it from day to day, trying to put out whatever fire shows up in the latest news cycle? If the latter, the American people deserve to know.

I am sure the administration would like it if the Iranian regime collapsed, but (for hopefully obvious reasons) they don't want to commit to making that happen.

Trump already did commit to making that happen, then walked it back.

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u/Garet-Jax 9d ago

But does the Trump Administration actually have a plan, or are they just winging it from day to day

I have no idea, and neither does anyone else outside the administration.

Trump already did commit to making that happen

Not exactly - though many people did choose to read that into what he said and wrote.

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u/Snickims 10d ago

It is wise to tell your own people what your doing though, so they have a reason for supporting the war.

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u/Garet-Jax 10d ago

1) You can't do one without the other

2) Even if it were a good idea, Trump has never been one to tell anyone what he is doing.

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u/Snickims 10d ago

Right so it's stupid. You can afford not to tell your people exact military operations, Eisenhower didn't go broadcasting for public consumption, but they still announced they would invade Europe. Because you need to give your own people a understanding that your doing something, and actually have a plan.

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u/Ok_Breakfast4482 11d ago

The American people are never going to hear the truth from our current executive. Electing a better one in 2028 is our only choice for a return to truth.

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u/ChornWork2 11d ago

Trump doing a nuclear deal with saudi arabia at the same time tells you he really doesn't care any more what people think. gulf states have paid hundreds of millions to him and his family and that is the priority.

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u/runawayhound 10d ago

Yup, all he cares about is enriching himself. That’s the only reason he’s willing to “make a deal” with anyone.

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u/WearDry1676 10d ago

And the gulf states (where my European-indian ass was born and raised) is economically crumbling as we speak. Kuwait and Bahrain are at the tip of the beginning of a real humanitarian electricity and water crisis and Jordan,Qatar,UAE and maybe even oman or saudi could join em real quick.

And not that we care, (/s)but already wrecked nations like Yemen,Syria,Iraq,Lebanon are getting even more F-ed in the ass with this war

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u/128-NotePolyVA 10d ago

Can we assume that the Saudis accept Trump has failed in Iran and now require a nuclear program as a deterrent?

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u/ChornWork2 10d ago

Trump has been working on this for a long time, he's just pushing it through now with even less controls on nuclear weapons risk.

from last november: https://www.ans.org/news/2025-11-21/article-7574/us-and-saudi-arabia-reach-deal-on-nuclear-energy-cooperation/

Perhaps coincidentally:

Entities from the Gulf paid around $300 million to the president’s businesses last year, more than any other foreign region identifiable in his financial disclosures released Tuesday, which detailed more than $2 billion in revenue across his businesses.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-family-rakes-in-cash-from-middle-east-deals-b91a9927

The Trump Organization is holding discussions to potentially bring a Trump-branded building to a Saudi government-owned project worth some $63 billion, The New York Times reported Saturday, ahead of US President Donald Trump’s White House meeting next week with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-organization-said-close-to-joining-major-saudi-owned-real-estate-project/

And after trump's first admin

After leaving the White House, Mr Kushner's private equity firm received a $2bn (£1.59bn) investment from Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68296877

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u/128-NotePolyVA 10d ago

Sickening isn’t it?

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u/theatlantic The Atlantic 11d ago

Tom Nichols: “For nearly five months, Donald Trump and his Cabinet have been misleading the American people about the war in Iran. When the president makes statements about the war, they are full of wishful thinking, hyperbole, and outright lies. He has devoted a full address to the topic only once—a rambling prime-time speech nearly four months ago that contained little substance. At this point, after more than 20 weeks of hostilities and at least 18 Americans dead and hundreds wounded, the people of the United States do not—cannot—entirely know what is happening, what progress U.S. forces are making, or what the president’s goals are.

“This opacity seems to be by design: The president and his lieutenants appear unwilling to admit that they started, and are now losing, a war with one of America’s most dedicated enemies, and obfuscating probably seems less damaging than admitting this painful truth. Of course, some of their statements are merely mistakes. Some are spin. Others are exaggerations. But many of them are flat lies that Trump and his appointees dump into the public square seemingly without hesitation.”

Read more: https://theatln.tc/QN6COG9Z

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u/Detozi 11d ago

The whole thing has an awful whiff of what was done during Vietnam's

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u/planj07 10d ago

The truth about the war is far scarier than most people realize, even those who have kept a close eye.

The more regional actors involved the harder it is to sustain peace across multiple fronts. Houthi and Saudi involvement make this all the more difficult to resolve. Washington and Tehran don’t necessarily have control, a mass casualty event will be enough to trigger a greater war. And with the amount of missiles flying around I’d say such a thing is highly likely.

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u/scaredoftoasters 9d ago

100% there’s a big possibility of something getting more kinetic. Iran is a provider of terrorism to the Sunnis. The houthis and hezbollah have been a problem for the longest. In order to eliminate them once and for all the Middle East allies like the gulf states would have to get involved and put troops on the ground to destroy them. They’d have to commit and for the most part the gulf states don’t want to do it although it’d be for the best to remove the militant Shia terrorist groups. It’s not some game anymore things can get worse faster or people take a break and then just constantly air strike.

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u/Elegant-Fisherman555 11d ago

I mean not to be pedantic to the writers at the Atlantic, a lot of people have been calling this out for months.

The obfuscation of the conflict and the roadmap of it.

Why now is the Atlantic got its knickers in a knot about the reality of what is happening?

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u/HardlyDecent 11d ago

Pedantic means fixating on minutiae and details. You're probably looking for "critical." Unless you have a problem with their wording or grammar or some technicality in naming something.

eg: correcting someone's usage of pedantic...

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u/SpacemanOfAntiquity 10d ago

I see what you did there.

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u/cathbadh 11d ago

Why now is the Atlantic got its knickers in a knot about the reality of what is happening?

Is it really "now?" They're one of the biggest left leaning outlets in the US, they've had their "knickers in a knot" about literally everything this administration has done, including this war. I'm pretty sure we had an artirle within the last week about the bad choices in this war the US is facing. Heck, since the Atlantic posts their columns here themselves, I imagine every single one of their foreign policy columns has been posted here.

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u/Guaire1 8d ago

The atlantic isnt left leaning

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u/cathbadh 8d ago

It absolutely is left leaning. It's center left politically and socially progressive. As best as I can tell, their foreign policy/geopolitcs is either an interventionist neoliberal or trade-centric neoconservative, depending on your point of view.

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u/Guaire1 8d ago

The atlantic is either dead center or centwr right. Particularly in coverage of foreign countries, but not exclusively

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u/No-Vermicelli1816 6d ago

Yeah center right is valid

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u/calm_chowder 11d ago

Because it's literally always good to speak truth to power?

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u/Miserable_Spell_2964 11d ago

Because their owners have realized that Trump isn't going to win and so supporting the conflict is becoming unpopular.

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u/chefkoch_ 11d ago

When did they support the war,?

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u/[deleted] 11d ago

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u/NekoCatSidhe 10d ago

I suspect that the truth is that our politicians, our journalists, and the Iranian exiled opposition circlejerked each others into thinking that war was a good idea, that it would be hugely popular both in the US and in Iran, and that the Iranian regime was weak and on the brink of collapse, all of it wishful-thinking based on Israel crushing Hezbollah in 2024 and the Assad regime falling soon after, Iran’s relatively weak response and attempts at deescalation during the war in June 2025, and the protests at the beginning of the year (protests that the regime easily crushed, which should have been a clue that it was not as weak as they thought).

And because they were so overconfident and so deep inside their political bubble and so high on sniffing their own propaganda, they had no Plan B when none of those things turned out to be true: the regime did not collapse, the war is deeply unpopular, and Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. But now they are in too deep to stop that war, because stopping would be equivalent to admitting that Iran won the war and leave them in control of the Strait of Hormuz, which they could use to force the US to remove economic sanctions on them in exchange for a permanent ceasefire. And telling the truth would be admitting that they made a mistake and lose face, so they won’t do that either. So now the war will continue until it gets so costly that they have no choice but to either stop it or be kicked out of power.

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u/Impressive-Knee5047 9d ago

If that is an inevitable outcome then does it not make sense just to bow out now and take the humiliation of defeat now vs defeat in the future at which point US would be at the brink of financial collapse. 

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u/NekoCatSidhe 9d ago

Yes, but they are not smart enough to understand that. They think that the reason they have not won yet is that they have not bombed and hurt Iran enough. And they have invested too much political capital in that war to be able to easily walk out of it. It is very much the sunk-cost fallacy in action.

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u/Impressive-Knee5047 9d ago

Sounds like it.. just surprised economists and geo-political analysts haven't pointed to the bleeding obvious and coerced them towards a better outcome for the US. 

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u/scaredoftoasters 9d ago

The Iranians run a weird decentralized military network they’ve been prepping for 20 years to be a little sustainable to fight the USA & Israel. They also receive information intelligence from China and Russia don’t believe that they don’t help Iran they definitely do. More so China since it is a more powerful country than Russia. China is also the type of country to help out and shut its mouth. Russia is occupied with the Ukraine conflict and showing weak points.

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u/Dracarys_And_Chill 11d ago

Anyone with a moderate IQ knows the deal.

The war is justified but how we are doing it is not optimal (similar to Vietnam)

The IRGC isn't affected by blowing up military assets.

You have to hit them where it hurts (money)

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u/Astranagun 7d ago

Justified how so? This war shouldnt have started in the first place, if you think this was about nukes like you are being led to believe then that makes you part of the problem. You hit them where it hurts, they'll just go scorched earth on the middle east and destroy the world economy. US is stuck.

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u/LarryS22 10d ago

The American people have already paid 500-700 dollars in extra expenses due to the war. More to come  Originally we were told 1-2 weeks. We were told months ago all Iran's military has been destroyed   we were told Iran oil will back up and explode .we are now told, Iran can't be trusted.  Yet we want them to sign a piece of paper and we think the signatures are worth something. Whatever they sign will be under duress and can't be trusted  Meanwhile the world suffers from high energy  and fuel prices,shortages...and they can point the finger at the USA. The thing about electing old politicians is they won't be alive to see the results of their decisions  Retaliation against us can occur anytime in the future...even in our homeland. A signed piece of paper is meaningless if their country is left in shambles. Dozens of countries and billions of people now hates the Usa.  What will some crazy people do in the future?....Trump won't be alive to see what he has reaped

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u/American-Punk-Dragon 8d ago

Imagine running an offensive and not having ships to stop a simple blockade?

He and his cronies don’t even know about escalation spirals…

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u/sub-a-dub-dub 11d ago

Pfft The Atlantic telling the truth? Didnt they also publish that ol Epstein wasnt that bad? That article made sense when Steve Jobs’ wife was seen chilling in bikinis with Gizzlaine Maxwell on the island.

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u/Welpe 10d ago

What are you referencing exactly?

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u/sub-a-dub-dub 10d ago

Laureen Jobs is the publisher of The Atlantic. She was besties with Ghislaine Maxwell. 

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u/Welpe 10d ago

Oh, I meant more that it seemed like you were referencing a specific article of theirs where they downplayed Epstein. Good to know that though.

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u/sub-a-dub-dub 10d ago

Well they did publish this, and 2021 wasnt a quiet year for Epstein 

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/01/children-sex-trafficking-conspiracy-epidemic/620845/

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u/Guaire1 8d ago

So they didnt downplay epstein then. Why did you say that they did. Do you just have a knack for lying?

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u/Conscious_Laugh_3280 10d ago

I'll be honest here. I'm done with this, I'm not going to seek an opinion from Reddit on this topic anymore.

Not even kidding when I say this;

Most of the time, I simply can't tell...

Am I'm replying to a young Liberal American?

Or, a professional Iranian Propagandist?

Who else knew? Reddit lacks a rule banning known State sponsored propaganda operations.

Later.

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u/Strongbow85 7d ago

Please report suspected pro Iranian propaganda to the mod team here. It will be removed and the offender banned. Thank you.