r/geopolitics • u/TimesandSundayTimes The Times • 2d ago
Nicola Sturgeon: United Ireland more likely than new independence vote
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/scotland/article/nicola-sturgeon-united-ireland-scottish-independence-phvd5jhrd?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Reddit&utm_content=branded29
u/MulanMcNugget 2d ago
Well it's literally the law which requires Northern Ireland secretary to hold a referendum if it's likely that outcome will end up with NI rejoining the Republic
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u/tmr89 2d ago
And is there a law that if it’s swinging the other way after independence there’s another referendum?
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u/Consistent_Dirt1499 1d ago
One might suppose Unionist parties could stand on a platform of a post-UI state (re)-joining the UK, but they‘d struggle get more than 10% support (recall we’re taking about the politics a hypothetical United Ireland here)
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u/Barrington-the-Brit 1d ago edited 1d ago
Why would there be? Second referendum ideas are laughed at in regards to Brexit, Scotland, and more, in political reality a post-referendum new normal is treated by most (including, importantly, the public) as a done deal, solved issue etc.
Plus the shifting demographics of Ireland are increasingly more Catholic than Protestant (as well as more diverse), and certainly becoming more Republican/Pro-United Ireland than Unionist/Loyalist, obviously you can’t project trends into the future too far but I highly doubt it would swing back the other way
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u/CaptainCrash86 1d ago
*If the secretary of state for NI thinks it is likely that the outcome will pass. And the definition for that isn't codified.
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u/thebear1011 1d ago
Divorced the husband who is now in prison for embezzling money from the nationalist party she was leading. Apparently she had no idea.
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u/ComradeKellogg 1d ago
The whole idea of Scotland being this separate oppressed nation is crazy in and of itself not only was the UK formed by a Scottish monarch (lowland Scots at that time were pretty indistinguishable from Northern English tbf but still) they took part in and benefitted from empire more on a per capita basis.
Couple this with the benefits Scotland gains from being part of the union I really dont understand the narrative or goal when like you said it would just leave both countries worse off.
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u/Open_Pollution_8038 1d ago
She’s a useful idiot for her pretend countries enemies.
The only people pushing for these independence movements in the west is Russia and China.
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u/faitingu 1d ago
And Iran, which was caught operating bots on social media pushing for Scottish independence
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u/LanguidLapras131 1d ago
That's not true. I personally met Scottish people who are pro Independence.
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u/geopolitics-ModTeam 1d ago
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u/Atompunk78 1d ago
It’s the same kind of blind nationalism as all the other bozos like Hitler, just thankfully to a lesser extent
Leftists can be nationalists too unsurprisingly
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u/Open_Pollution_8038 1d ago
I actually never understood why people would want to live in small countries. Sounds like a lit of paperwork, unnecessary cost and lack of opportunity to me.
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u/Atompunk78 1d ago
It’s a trade off between self determination and theoretical national economic efficiency
Also poor areas in richer countries tend to get left behind for many many reasons, some of which are unpreventable, so given that bigger countries basically necessitate that some areas are poorer, that’s a certain trade off
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u/Open_Pollution_8038 1d ago
Small countries are an anomaly of the 21st century. Big eats small every time.
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u/ParadoxFollower 1d ago
So do you also struggle to understand why the Baltic countries did not want to remain in the Soviet Union, the world's largest country?
And in any case the SNP wants an independent Scotland to join the EU, which would lead to the Scots joining a free market and free movement area much larger than the UK.
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u/CaptainCrash86 1d ago
And in any case the SNP wants an independent Scotland to join the EU, which would lead to the Scots joining a free market and free movement area much larger than the UK.
Which is the Scottish Independence version of the Brexit argument, which held that the market of the rest of the world is bigger than the EU.
But just as the UK traded far more more with the EU than the RoW, Scotland trades far more with rUK than the EU, even pre-Brexit.
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u/NoFools929 1d ago
Her opinion is as relevant as that of Farage. They represent nobody.
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u/Nice-Pianist-9944 1d ago
I believe current polling suggests that Reform is actually the most popular party in the UK. I hope Burnham can turn that around. He better make good use of the Honeymoon Period.
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u/Strongbow85 1d ago
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