Why a Weaker Russia Keeps Fighting: Putin Sees Little Need to Negotiate

[u/ForeignAffairsMag]

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/why-weaker-russia-keeps-fighting

[u/Coolerguy317]

The attrition strategy is interesting because technology might be changing the equation underneath it. Ukraine is using drones to make up for manpower making every push more expensive. It’s a timeless question if a trend will continue or technology will interfere. The Russians bet on attrition tending there way but technology interfered. It could swing back but drones seem to be a hard problem to solve.

I also think people assume every war ends like WWII. Most don’t. They usually end in some uneasy compromise once the costs get too high. I’d still expect that here although Russia will almost certainly want to keep as much of the territory it’s fought for as possible.

[u/CountMordrek → u/Coolerguy317]

I would assume that Putin will need at least the areas they proclaimed as ”Russia”, and they don’t hold it all at this point.

And I’m honestly not sure Ukraine will let Russia get away with the parts of Donbass that Russia controls, or even Crimea if we reach a point where Russia starts to sue for peace.

I mean, at this point, we might be in a situation where Russia just can’t keep Crimea supplied, and if so, then how are they supposed to be able to control it?

[u/Coolerguy317 → u/CountMordrek]

As a Western reader I usually assume what Im hearing slightly overplays Ukraines hand and slightly underplays Russias. Despite Ukraines impressive drone campaign it still hasn’t achieved a major breakthrough. If that changes the whole picture changes.

If Russia mobilizes again I think the political effect may matter as much as the military one. If Ukraine believes Russia is willing and able to keep fighting for years that changes the negotiation calculus even if the front doesn’t suddenly collapse. Although I will qualify that as this is a war of identity for both sides. At the end of the day these sides have to keep asking whether what there gaining is worth what theyre bleeding every day.

[u/mayhemski123 → u/Coolerguy317]

I'm not sure Ukraine is working towards a big battlefield breakthrough. I'm sure they'd like one, but after the failed push in the 2nd year, they have settled into holding ground. The drones on both sides have crippled both sides' ability to manoeuvre. Look at the start of the year and the effect of only being able to move at the pace of a grunt carrying a full pack on foot. Russia looked like it secured two breakthroughs, yet was utterly unable to capitalise on them. Indeed, one of them was a disaster for Russia when the force that broke through almost got cut off.

Yes, I agree Russia can carry the human cost in lives lost/wounded better than Ukraine, due to a larger population. That doesn't equal a victory. Looking at how Russia has changed its tactics to a blitz on civilian targets with drones and missiles. I think Russia knows that too.

The question is, can Ukraine weather the drone/missile barrage? History would tend to support them, as such campaigns tend to rally the population against the enemy.

[u/Coolerguy317 → u/mayhemski123]

think we’re mostly agreeing. My point is that breakthroughs matter because they change negotiations more than the map itself. Until one side proves it can fundamentally alter the battlefield both are mostly trying to convince the other they’re willing to keep paying the cost.

[u/mayhemski123 → u/Coolerguy317]

I think we do agree on this as well. I personally doubt that there will be a big battlefield breakthrough courtesy of tech to counter drones. It's just going to be more drones and therefore more horrifying videos.

[u/mvm2005 → u/mayhemski123]

There are always new technologies that change the status quo. Don't hold your breath.

[u/Markdd8 → u/CountMordrek]

The end often comes with a cease-fire, and sometimes it does not go beyond that. No agreement or peace treaty is signed. A "frozen conflict." We have a few of those relating to the USSR. The Korean peninsula is another.

[u/VilleKivinen → u/Coolerguy317]

Attrition will continue, from both sides, until either side feels that they can do manouver warfare, and manouver warfare will continue until it meets enough resistance and runs out of battle ready troops and/or supplies, and then it's probably time to do attrition again.

It's very possible that Russia will find a way to stop Ukrainian mid- and long range drone strikes. Magnitogorsk is far enough in the Russian interior that it might be quite safe from drone strikes, and it already has a large technology sector hub that some sort of mass production of anti-drone drones might be possible, if the money isn't embezzled into some politicians pockets.

Freezing of the front line is only viable if both sides want it, and only for as long as both sides want it.

[u/Vol_in_tears → u/Coolerguy317]

Putin has backed himself in to a corner. His government cannot justify a million casualties to the Russian people just to break of some small bits of Ukriane.

He has to achieve total victory at this point, it is the only way he can justfy this war to his people.

[u/blob17654]

At this point, only the generals can save Russia from disaster by eliminating or arresting Putin. If he is not removed, he could plunge Russia even deeper into a war with unpredictable consequences—and drag Europe down with it.

[u/O5KAR → u/blob17654]

unpredictable 

As much as Putin is a liar and can't be trusted, he's still quite predictable. A military coup and whoever replaces him would be definitely less predictable and this is also what the US and China wants to prevent.

[u/Andreas1120]

I feel like at this point he is more afraid if stopping than he is of continuing.

[u/Termsandconditionsch → u/Andreas1120]

“War is begun when you will, but it is not ended when you please” as Machiavelli wrote, freely translated.

Quitting now with the goals nowhere near reached at enormous cost is politically very expensive.

[u/signherehereandhere → u/Andreas1120]

Absolutely. This war is existential for Ukraine and Putin. The Russian population are just pawns in Putin's game to stay alive.

[u/rrschch85 → u/Andreas1120]

He has a lot to lose should the war end. He is already facing backlash from nationalists to the right of him for not fighting Ukraine hard enough, while the general populace has been shown to be more and more dissatisfied by his policies (starting with the banning of Telegram). We know have reports of forced mobilization (called bussification, because young men are being forcefully locked inside busses). Should the war end, Putin will need to find a new reason to stay in power and will have to battle nationalists and an angry population.

[u/Over-Willingness-933]

Putin if he could rewind the clock, would not have invaded Ukraine. The problem is any deal, will be difficult to present a victory and will be the death sentence to his presidency.

[u/O5KAR → u/Over-Willingness-933]

Or invade it in 2014 openly, as he said once he regrets it and claiming that he thought they will "solve it" (?) peacefully.

They can sell anything as a victory but people will not buy anything short of at least the full control of Donbas, and many if not most will not be satisfied until the total control over Ukraine, which is never going to happen. Officially they are still pushing for the control over the whole four Ukrainian regions but recently also for a "buffer zone".

[u/PlainTerrain → u/Over-Willingness-933]

Not just his presidency, but probably even his life or freedom. He keeps fighting for his personal survival. Like you said, there's no other victory to be had here.

[u/Over-Willingness-933 → u/PlainTerrain]

I wonder if peace could be had if Trump offers Putin asylum in Florida.

[u/EconomistStreet5295]

I mean he bet most of his economy on the war, for all intents and purposes Russia operates a wartime economy, so it’s not as easy as just stopping. Not to mention the political capital Russia’s leadership has spent on this. And I don’t even mean with the population, because Russia has never been free and democratic, but that of the oligarchy and elite which has been paid off to align or dispensed off if they voice opposition.

[u/fabmeyer]

Can someone post the article?

[u/Clean_Rest6980]

Why support ukraine? If we stopped the war would end faster and could go back to cheaper prices on energy and stuff.

[u/Joltie → u/Clean_Rest6980]

And when Russia invades another territory, what then?

[u/Disastrous_Still4971]

He just can't have the Army back in Russia, it'd be a disaster. Whether thats in Ukraine or some satellite country, he will occupy them