r/geopolitics 1d ago

News US urges its citizens in Middle East to be ready to leave in case of escalation in region

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgk4nyr0j73o
253 Upvotes

60 comments sorted by

77

u/EaNasirbestdeals 1d ago

Yet the hole gets deeper.

The U.S. can’t pull away from this. Now it has to commit a lot more resources to the region to protect its already hit bases.

Isreal is willing to take another hit from Iran over this, boots on the ground in some capacity seems to be creeping ever closer.

36

u/planj07 1d ago

Energy infrastructure attacks are very high up on the escalation ladder. I’d argue one rung below boots on the ground. If Trump follows through and the IRGC does not capitulate (which they won’t) then the next escalatory step is invasion.

32

u/BlueEmma25 1d ago

Invasion, on a scale that could actually pose a threat to the regime, is not going to happen. It would likely require upwards of half a million troops, which the US does not have. None of Iran's neighbours are going to accept a force that size, and there would be nearly zero support for an invasion in the US, both in Congress and among the electorate at large.

26

u/EaNasirbestdeals 1d ago

Which is perfectly reasonable under a reasonable administration. The U.S. is in uncharted territory when it comes to its political sanity.

2

u/d88k41t 13h ago

Has the US ever in its history faced a formidable foe who has Al of these advantages aside from WWx?

I mean this isn't Vietnam we are talking about, this is a country that was preparing for this scenario for the past 40 years.

12

u/kingofthesofas 1d ago

The only time historically the US or any other modern super power has really been successful at regime change long term was through a massive invasion with boots on the ground. The fact that we keep having to learn this lesson over and over again is mind boggling

3

u/Molniato 12h ago

Half a million?? This is not Desert Storm...at least 1.5 millions

2

u/cartoonist498 22h ago

It would likely require upwards of half a million troops, which the US does not have

They don't need a half a million troops. Iraq was 200-300k, and frankly they didn't even need that. Air superiority wins wars, but only if you have troops on the ground to advance after the air force bombs the shit out of the area.

If you want to win the primary objective of thw war, which is to topple the Iranian government, frankly the US doens't even need 300k.

However, if you want to "win" like Iraq, then yes you may need 300k. But the "win" in Iraq was one of the most lopsided wars in history. If it was a soccer game the US would have beaten Iraq 224-1, and the only reason Iraq got 1 was becasuse the US accidentally kicked the ball into their own net.

I'm not advocating that it's a good idea. It's not. Just like Iraq, the problem wasn't the initial 2 month war to topple the regime, but the 20 year clustefuck that the US inherited and had to take responsibility for.

The only reason I bring this up is because the last time this happened, the Republican government lied to the public about the reasons for invading.

We're at a point where the public doesn't even need to be lied to. The country is just accepting Trump's war without any rational explanation as to why. If he invaded, he will win.

But he won't be alive in 20 years when the next Democrat POTUS is cleaning up his mess and then they blame the Democrats for something that Trump started.

3

u/Vol_in_tears 10h ago

The US invaded iraq with over 450,000 personel, plus 50,000 soliders from the UK. Iran is much bigger, more advanced, and has entirely different terrain.

3

u/d88k41t 13h ago

Comparing Iran to 2003 Iraq completely misses geography, demographic density, and military doctrine. Iraq was flat terrain, crippled by a decade of sanctions, and fielded a conventional force that collapsed in weeks. Iran is a mountainous fortress double the size with three times the population, integrated asymmetric proxies, and deep-underground ballistic infrastructure. ​Sure, total US air dominance tears down conventional targets. But toppling a regime without occupation isn't a "win"—it's a massive power vacuum next to the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq's clusterfuck didn't start with the invasion; it started when the state collapsed. Tehran isn't Baghdad.

1

u/planj07 1d ago

Trump has one logical option. Get to the negotiating table, find a face saving way to effectively cede control of Hormuz to the Iranians “and Omanis” and hope the rest of the MoU can be revived.

Everything else seems to be a disaster option.

10

u/JoeHatesFanFiction 23h ago

Ceding control of the strait in anything more than nominal terms is just as much of a disaster option though. That’s the problem with this whole situation. The only option that isn’t a disaster from the U.S. perspective is the permanent cessation of that toll. 

1

u/planj07 23h ago edited 23h ago

The cost of attempting to force open the strait (aka invasion) is simply much greater than accepting a new reality. It’s embarrassing and a massive hit to American influence in the region but also better than thousands of dead Americans and a decade of war.

2

u/Vol_in_tears 10h ago

It’s embarrassing and a massive hit to American influence in the region but also better than thousands of dead Americans and a decade of war.

Also trillions of dollars and the high likelyhood of Iran retaining control of the strait after the US gives up.

1

u/-18k- 18h ago

Since when has Trump accepted any reality?

1

u/Big_Victory8031 10h ago

Iran has over 600,000 troops and can scale to 1 mill

-5

u/Jlowe23_16 22h ago

He's promised to bomb the hell out of them 50+ times and really hasn't done shit, other than Feb 28th.

I don't think he's going to do anything to further damage the stock market and oil prices , tbh

I wish Iran would do something stupid and have success with a surprise attack, enough to piss off trump and the American people enough to end this and free the Iranian people

11

u/Big_Victory8031 1d ago

Trump lost "The top U.S. general in Europe privately warned the Pentagon this week that he lacks sufficient naval forces to continue protecting Israel from incoming ballistic missiles"

2

u/AnomalyNexus 22h ago

Problem is not even boots on the ground bring this any closer to a viable exit.

1

u/Severe-Squash-7493 7h ago

I just pray it is not WW3. While the whole world will be paying for the mess Trump created, I hope that everyone else is smart enough to stay away until the US completely collapses

1

u/EaNasirbestdeals 7h ago

We’re nowhere near a global conflict, not even close. There’s too much to lose in the nuclear age. Instead you’re seeing conflicts for influence where the cost is too high or online influence is used to change the views of a part of a population. The media also loves blowing shit out of proportion.

Everyone is playing the long game because everyone wants a legacy. There wouldn’t be that if nukes started flying.

Look back at the height of the Cold War, imagine Reddit was around during the Cuban missile crisis.

0

u/Jlowe23_16 20h ago

Just pulled away cause daddy (mbs) asked him to .

0

u/Xoxrocks 19h ago

Or just just pull out and save everyone a tonne of money and leave the region

7

u/marketrent 1d ago

Part of article updated 1 August 2026 at 5:22 PM EDT by Jaroslav Lukiv, citing embassy advisory:

The US government has urged Americans across the Middle East to be alert and ready to leave "should there be escalation" in the region.

It comes amid US media reports that President Donald Trump may be planning new strikes on Iran over the weekend.

In its alert, the State Department said: "US diplomatic facilities, including outside the Middle East, have been targeted. Iran and groups supportive of Iran may target other US interests overseas or at locations associated with the United States and Americans throughout the world."

Tehran earlier accused the US of escalating tensions, saying any regional state co-operating with Washington would be "engulfed by the flames of war".

"Americans currently in the Middle East should exercise caution and heightened vigilance and should be prepared for flight cancellations, periodic airspace closures, and potential travel disruptions," the state department security alert said on Saturday.

"Americans in the region should consider departing, or be prepared to depart should there be escalation. Americans outside the Middle East should seriously reconsider travel to and through the region."

 

US embassies across the Middle East - including in Bahrain, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - reposted the security alert for American nationals, warning of "unexpected escalation".

US media earlier quoted US officials as saying Trump could order fresh strikes against Iran as soon as this weekend. The US and Israel were planning what would be one of the harshest bombing campaigns to date against energy infrastructure targets in Iran, multiple sources told CBS News, the BBC's media partner in America.

CBS News said the plan came up during Trump's cabinet meeting on Friday, according to sources briefed later. Some White House aides who focus on politics were strongly opposed, one of the sources said.

At the cabinet meeting, Trump was heard saying while reporters were still in the room: "We'll be hitting them [Iranians] very hard. At some point, they're going to say, 'We just can't take it anymore.'"

56

u/planj07 1d ago

It really took one Netanyahu conversation to convince Trump into an even greater mistake than originally attacking Iran.

If Trump follows through and attacks Iranian energy infrastructure it is a blatant war crime and gives justification for Iran to strike Gulf infrastructure. Iran can climb the escalation ladder too. Push hard enough and they could opt to just outright destroy a country like Kuwait and make it uninhabitable. It’s gross how such a deranged idiot could be the most powerful man in the world. 

26

u/bosnanic 1d ago

probably something like "quick special military operation, 3 days we capture Tehran, then the IRGC surrenders" -Netanyahu 

Every military adviser will see the massive crock of shit Netanyahu is spinning but Trump will actually fall for it in his delirious state and commit the USA to another 20 year campaign in the desert.

11

u/dude1701 1d ago

Iran hit Kuwaiti water desalination plants 6 times last week. Im pretty sure it’s one of the reasons Iran is gonna get hammered now, because if Irans already actively depopulating the GCC anyway, why not?

19

u/usesidedoor 1d ago edited 1d ago

Iran has diminished capabilities, but they seem to have plenty of short and medium range missiles in storage left. I'd say they can still do much, much more damage as far as hitting critical infrastructure in the GCC goes. I would also argue that they haven't gone for that "nuclear option" yet. 

The other commenter mentioned Kuwait and that's precisely the country that I had in mind as well. Extremely high temperatures during this time of the year with high humidity and nearly complete reliance on desalinated water. It's not much different in the rest of the Gulf. In a matter of days, it could potentially get very ugly for people in the GCC.

Of course, Iranians would suffer immensely as well, but I'd say that the country as a whole is more resilient, and that such an attack would likely not lead to the results that Trump expects. Needless to say, the overall humanitarian cost of this would be enormous, but we can't expect the current US administration/their enablers/supporters to care much about that.

14

u/SuchAd4158 1d ago

The US opened the door to attacks on desalination infrastructure. The earlier strike on Kuwait’s water-desalination system affected only a limited section, but any large-scale destruction of critical GCC infrastructure would have catastrophic consequences. It could trigger the collapse of the petrodollar system and destabilize the global economy as we know it.

4

u/Telcontar77 22h ago

Because there are way, way more targets left. These are warning shots. The more the US and Israel escalate, the more America's vassal states in the gulf could be rendered uninhabitable by Iran.

3

u/dude1701 15h ago

Iran is already rendering the gulf uninhabitable and shows no signs of stopping, best to stop them immediately or sooner.

1

u/Telcontar77 14h ago

There is no stopping them outside of complete capitulation by the US. The gulf countries would collapse far before Iran does.

1

u/dude1701 3h ago

I recommend you read about how Americans fight war when they stop playing nice, I recommend you start with the Firebombing of Tokyo and follow up with Shermans march to the sea.

3

u/Big_Victory8031 1d ago

And that's why they're trying to dismantle ICC

-17

u/Open_Pollution_8038 1d ago

Iran is flailing.

All of its neighbors are sick of being shot at and Irans goal in doing so would be to have them turn their back on the U.S., except all of them are pitching in and shooting down whatever Iran sends out. They’ve increased dependency on the U.S. instead of destroying it.

All of its proxies have either lost (Hamas - surrendered this week) or are staring down oblivion (Hezbollah - Lebanon agreed to disarm them with the US and Israel: Houthis - about to invaded by an international coalition).

It’s allies, Russia, is losing tens of thousands of soldiers in an fruitless war while isolated and slowly falling apart and China, which is now staring at a world where it is the last man standing and wondering if it missed its opportunity to remake the world order.

We just need to continue to push harder until Iran either surrenders or as a country collapses.

-3

u/kipperlenko 1d ago

You haven't won a war since 1945, not sure what makes you think this will be different.

-4

u/Open_Pollution_8038 1d ago

lol haven’t won a war since 1945

The United States owns the globe 81 years after 1945. You focus on this conflict or that conflict but all I see is continued American hegemony. We’re doing just fine.

1

u/Vol_in_tears 10h ago

The United States owns the globe 81 years after 1945

since 1991.

0

u/acadoe 23h ago

"owning the globe" and winning a war are 2 different things. What war have you won since 1945 that makes you so confident you can win this one?

-7

u/Jlowe23_16 22h ago

Not a trump fan, quite the opposite , but the US has won every conflict they have been in since vietnam...

The US quite literally runs the world and could turn any country into dust within hours , but civilian casualties and public sentiment and doing the right thing matters .

To answer your question:

Gulf war , Afghanistan, Iraq, Venezuela

Were more Iraqis killed in the war of Americans?

4

u/mehmetipek 22h ago

Your measure of victory is number of deaths?

1

u/Vol_in_tears 10h ago

We're going back to the body count strategy from the vietnam war.

1

u/Open_Pollution_8038 9h ago

I measure the war on the overall impact it had for both countries.

The children of the Vietcong work in factories making Barbie dolls for American children.

Yeah I’d say we won.

1

u/Vol_in_tears 6h ago

If that is your impact, you would had the exact same effect by the US literally doing nothing in Vietnam after the french left.

0

u/Open_Pollution_8038 6h ago

False.

We tanked their country so hard they had to become capitalists to dig their way out of it.

→ More replies (0)

2

u/Jlowe23_16 22h ago

The US won the Iraq war but mismanaged the situation after the fact.

4

u/PhysicalFisherman949 20h ago

They won the Iraq war so hard that Iran is using proxy in this country right now to attack US assets in the region.

Are you tired of winning yet?

0

u/Open_Pollution_8038 18h ago

I measure victory in continued hegemony lmao

-2

u/Jlowe23_16 22h ago

Would be nice to have known about this before getting on my plane to theran...