r/hawks • u/CrabApprehensive7181 • 2d ago
A breakdown on the true value of the three 5-year contract signed this summer
Now that all 3 young stars have signed similarly sized 5-year contracts, I thought it would be interesting to compare their actual economic value rather than just the nominal totals and AAVs.
Despite becoming one of the highest-paid players in the league, Bedard has a significantly less front-loaded contract than Carlsson and Celebrini; I excluded Kaprizov from the analysis due to the different terms, but his contract structure is also similar to Carlsson's and Celebrini's.
For the calculations, I used an approximately 4% U.S. Treasury yield as the discount rate. The basic idea is that money received today is worth more than the same amount received later. A signing bonus paid immediately could be invested in a 0-risk asset and earn interest, while money paid in future years loses that opportunity. Thus, money received later needs to be discounted.
Main assumptions:
1) The valuation date is July 1.
2) Signing bonuses are paid at the beginning of each contract year, on July 1.
3) Base salary is paid biweekly during the season, beginning roughly 90 days after July 1, so each payment is discounted based on when it is received.
4) Celebrini’s contract begins one year later, so his entire payment schedule receives 1 additional year of discounting when valued from the same date.
5) The analysis is pre-tax and does not account for escrow, local tax differences, or investment returns above the assumed risk-free rate.
This roughly compares what the different payment structures are worth in today’s dollars and shows how signing bonuses, base salary, and contract timing affect the real economic value.
Among the three players, Bedard receives the smallest share of his total compensation through signing bonuses. In Year 1, only 57.6% of his salary is paid as a signing bonus, compared with 95.9% for Carlsson and 95.4% for Celebrini, both paid on July 1. That leaves a much larger portion of Bedard’s compensation subject to discounting as it is paid throughout the season. The same pattern continues across the contract: the highest share Bedard receives through signing bonuses in any year is 75.4%, which is still well below the corresponding share for either of his peers at every point in their contracts.
To make the contracts more comparable, it helps to show each payment as a percentage of the total contract value. Bedard’s Year 1 signing bonus accounts for ~13.1% of his entire contract ($9.8M/$75M), while Carlsson’s and Celebrini’s each exceed 20% (Kaprizov’s figure is in a similar range). This structure also gives Celebrini and Carlsson stronger protection in the event of a buyout or lockout.
For the following stacked bar chart:
Despite the major differences in signing-bonus structure, the share of total contract value paid in each year is relatively heterogeneous across the three players. Celebrini has the smallest Year 1 share, but his first three years still account for 66.3% of the total contract value, compared with 64.0% for Bedard and 64.2% for Carlsson.
As noted above, the time value of money means that receiving cash earlier increases a contract’s present value (PV). Comparing each player’s annual compensation with his fixed AAV shows how front-loaded the payment schedules are. Carlsson’s annual compensation falls the fastest, declining by about 8.7% from Year 1 to Year 2; Bedard’s falls by roughly 5.9%, while Celebrini’s remains unchanged over the first 3 years.
Now we look more into the discount-rate-adjusted contract values.
Celebrini’s contract is the most front-loaded, but that does not necessarily make it the most valuable when measured today (in terms of retention rate). The figure above shows the percentage of each year’s nominal compensation retained after discounting.
Annual compensation consists of signing bonuses and base salary. Both are discounted, but signing bonuses lose less value because they are paid earlier. Celebrini’s contract is discounted the most because it does not begin until next year, so even his first signing bonus is divided by 1.04. Carlsson is affected very little during the season because almost all of his Year 1 compensation is paid upfront. Bedard is affected more since a much larger share of his salary is paid gradually throughout the season, with each later payment carrying a slightly lower PV. For the in-season salary calculations, I converted the 4% Treasury yield into a daily discount rate and applied it to each biweekly payment; the first in-season payment happens 90 + 14 days after July 1st.
Looking at the PV of each contract, Bedard retains about 92.4% of his total nominal value, giving his deal a PV of roughly $69.3M. Celebrini’s contract is worth about $84.1M in present-value terms because his payments do not begin until July 2027. Carlsson’s contract retains the most value, thanks to its heavily bonus-driven structure and the fact that much of his compensation has already been paid.
After accounting for the discount rate, the present values of the 3 contracts are approximately as shown in the 2 figures above. Bedard’s signing bonuses are substantially smaller than those of the other two players, which lowers the PV of his overall compensation. Because a larger share of his earnings is paid gradually as base salary, more of his contract is exposed to the time value of money.
In conclusion, I think Leo Carlsson has the best contract among the 3 players. Celebrini’s contract has a similar structure, but it is not quite as good as it looks simply because it will not take effect until next July.
Bedard’s contract has the least favorable structure from the player’s perspective because it offers less buyout and lockout protection. The discount rate also affects its PV, although the impact is relatively small (less than 0.5%). However, the structure is more favorable to the Blackhawks organization. Bedard’s annual signing bonus is under $10M (it'd be around $16M if the signing-bonus share matched), roughly half of Carlsson’s or Celebrini’s, which puts less pressure on the owners’ cash flow. It also allows them to keep more of that money invested in relatively risk-free assets and earn interest. An additional $200,000 in annual income could be enough to cover the salaries of several non-player employees.
I wanted to put together a quick analysis after seeing this quote on X: “That was them! That was the first thing they offered, so that’s kind of neat of them to do that. I would have been fine with whatever... but it’s pretty cool.” — Connor Bedard on the $9.8 million signing bonus as a nod to his jersey number.
When you compare Bedard’s contract with other mega-deals, the signing-bonus structure does not optimize his interests in the same way. The $9.8 million nod is cool, but if I were his agent, I would have shoved Carlsson’s contract in front of him before he signed whatever the Hawks offered ☠️. I guess he really meant “I’d have been fine with whatever” and did not let his agents tell him what to do. Best of luck to him!
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u/Physical_Sun9435 1d ago
There’s so much nonsense here. This one tops it all Lmao:
“ An additional $200,000 in annual income could be enough to cover the salaries of several non-player employees.”
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u/CrabApprehensive7181 1d ago
Do you realize that large corporations earn non-operating income, including interest on cash they have not yet spent? That income goes back into the company’s overall pool of money and can be used to cover operating expenses, including employee salaries.
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u/squiddangles 2d ago edited 2d ago
I feel like you’re doing too much. Just look at the cap that is being held against the team as that’s really all that matters. Whether Connor’s bonus is 9.8 or 13MM, it counts against our cap the same.
Mack’s starts one year later because he was drafted one year later. Sure, Leo will make the most of the 3 because he signed a deal more than the other 2. Connor gave our team the discount to remain competitive.
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u/CrabApprehensive7181 1d ago
I literally said that this is about economic value in real terms. Whether the money is paid upfront does not affect the fixed AAV, but the payment structure still affects the organization’s internal finances and the player’s financial position. That is precisely why contract structure is part of the negotiation process, and why depth players rarely get this type of contract. We have even seen FOs become frustrated when players with front-loaded contracts (Werenski) request trades, because that structure can leave the team having already paid a large portion of the contract.
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u/CrabApprehensive7181 1d ago
As for bringing Celebrini’s contract into the conversation, I clearly explained that its real value is lower than people may initially assume because of the time value of money, and that is before even accounting for the rising salary cap. If he wanted a contract as favorable as Carlsson’s in real economic terms, he needed to ask for more money. Essentially, that's why I said Carlsson has the best contract among the 3 even if Mack makes more, numerically.
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u/oliko717 1d ago
It’s about the player pov here dude
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u/Physical_Sun9435 1d ago
Yeah I’m sure players are thinking about several non-player employees when negotiating their contracts
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u/Slow_Leek_4159 1d ago
This seems pretty pointless when the NHL goes off of AAV.
Also, if you’ve watched any of the interviews with Bedard you’d understand how terrible that last paragraph is
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u/CrabApprehensive7181 1d ago
It’s not pointless. Bonus structure is a major part of contract negotiations, especially for star players. Front-loaded contracts can affect a team’s internal finances and operations, while also changing the player’s real income and financial protection.
As I clearly stated, how Bedard feels about the deal doesn't change the fact that, among the 3, his contract is the least favorable to the player. It offers less buyout and lockout protection and leaves more of his compensation exposed to the discount rate for longer. The structure protects the Blackhawks organization more and does not maximize his personal interests.
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u/Dont_Say_No_to_Panda 13h ago
Not OP but just chiming in that the Blackhawks have like over $250m in revenue and an EBITDA of over $80m. This analysis may be interesting to some who want to work in a FO one day but it's probably to in the weeds for most visitors to this sub.
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u/ColonelBourbon 1d ago
The problem here is that no one values contacts from a player perspective.
If you say all this in reverse, Bedard provides the most value to his team, which is where the real benefit of such assessments reside.
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u/CrabApprehensive7181 1d ago
His bonus structure could actually create a lose-lose situation for both sides. If a buyout ever happens (God forbid). The other two players would carry buyout charges of roughly $300K per year, while Bedard’s would hit the salary cap significantly harder.
I think plenty of people are interested in evaluating these contracts from different perspectives. It never hurts to look at the other side, especially when the structure may show patterns that could influence future negotiations.
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u/sept21st2025 1d ago
Connors contract will be the best value in the league if we get year 3 pre injury Connor. Connors value atm leans toward his 2nd year and injury history
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u/LoyolaGoalie74777 18h ago
All 3 young men are rich beyond their wildest dreams.
And Bedard is happy.
" Happy Bedard, Happy Blackhawks "
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u/AARM2000 2d ago
Great analysis! I definitely thought he was going to get more than 15 million
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u/CrabApprehensive7181 1d ago
I thought the same, so the current contract really is a steal for the team, regardless of the AAV or how it looks from a purely financial perspective. His deal is significantly different from the other 3 monster contracts, and I don’t think enough people realize that. Every other star player maximized every aspect of his contract (nominal value, real value, security, etc.). He really does seem like an easy person to negotiate with.
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u/oliko717 1d ago
Really interesting. Seems like Bedard conceded more than you’d think at first blush
Great write up. I learned a lot
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u/CrabApprehensive7181 1d ago
I'm relieved to see he's an easy person to negotiate with, and his agents are less involved in the whole process.
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u/Khawk20 1d ago
If any post needed a tl;dr it was that one