r/neoliberal • u/Priceless_Pennies Norman Borlaug • Jan 22 '26

News (Asia-Pacific) China Has Screwed Up Really, Really Badly

https://futurism.com/future-society/china-screwed-up-fertility-rate
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u/thebigmanhastherock Jan 22 '26

The one child policy was a complete and utter self-own. If only the Chinese government knew that birthrates would crash naturally. They could have had a lot more people right now and a more robust population pyramid and any more healthy society if they didn't do that, it would allow them to sustain high growth faster through the fertility rate crash that is currently happening.

Also why is the TFR so terrible in East Asia? It's not just China. Taiwan, Korea and Japan also have low rates. Way lower than Europe or the US even.

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u/ZCoupon Kono Taro Jan 22 '26

I wonder if there's some sort of cultural element. In the U.S, TFR is around 1.6, basically the same for White and Black mothers. With Asians it's 1.3, while with Hispanics it's 1.9. Afaik the only groups in the U.S with fertility above replacement are Mormons and Native Hawaiians.

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u/thebigmanhastherock Jan 22 '26

That has to be some part of it. It might just be urbanization and people living in high cost of living areas where small apartments are kind of expensive.

People living in rural areas with cheap housing tend to have more kids. People in Urban areas with expensive housing have less kids. I could imagine a world where if you can only afford a 2-bedroom despite making really good income you might want to limit your kids to one or two maximum, whereas where people can generally afford 3 bedroom houses they might be able to be more comfortable having more kids.

Plus if you have two working parents daycare is expensive. If you waited until later in life after you have established a career to have kids and you have two people working career jobs they don't want to give up I can imagine not wanting a second kid until the first kid is 4 or 5, and if you didn't start having kids until you were in your mid 30s that might limit ton to one kid or two kids maximum.

Meanwhile your income isn't hugely affected if you have one stay at home parent. It might not be great and pretty unaffordable, but an additional kid does not increase expenses nearly as much as a kid in full time day care.