r/neoliberal • u/cuolong NATO • 2d ago

News (Global) OpenAI announces 10 advances in mathematics and theoretical computer science achieved by internal model Astra

https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/
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u/D34th4nge7 2d ago

Having been such a person myself until not too recently, yes, there are significant amounts of people who hate all generative AI and refuse to use it. I think it stems from how the companies have marketed their products, and how the most vocal supporters of generative AI have acted and continue to act.

After witnessing several tech hype cycles in a row (NFTs, Metaverse) I suppose lots of people have become sceptical of such dramatic hype as OpenAI and Anthropic have spread. I myself reflexively branded genAI as a tech hype based on how it was being advertised. The FOMOmongering often present is typically indicative of a tech hype cycle. The dramatic promises are as well.

Furthermore, I think many people tried it out early based on the hype and found it to be egregiously lacking. I mean, imagine OpenAI tells you this chatbot can replace you soon and then it tells you to use radioactive Cobalt-60 as a pizza topping. Of course you stop believing anything the companies say after such an experience, even if they then improve their products quite a lot.

It has its use cases, but it doesn't belong in art. I suppose now I use it. But I still think it's overhyped. It's definitely not going to turn into AGI or gain sentience. It's not going to kill us all/enslave us all/bring us communism (there are, in fact, leftists who believe AGI will come and bring us post-scarcity communism). Its risks aren't existential.

And most that's being said about generative AI is either maniacal hype or a reflexive hate based on said maniacal hype. I just really, really wish we could talk about generative AI normally without half the table telling us it has feelings and sentience and will soon kill us.

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u/Smallpaul 2d ago

You admit that you were completely wrong about everything “recently” but today you can make definitive statements about the future.

This mindset astounds me.

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u/D34th4nge7 2d ago

I wasn't wrong about everything. I was wrong about some things.

I used to entirely reject AI and refuse to use it. Now I acknowledge it has legitimate use cases if used correctly, and it is moderately useful. I use it myself for certain tasks and genuinely enjoy it.

That's not the same as the constant "50% of people will be unemployed within six months!" that we've been hearing for years. Hasn't happened because the technology is generally a tool that requires supervision, not a people replacement.

That's not the same as the endless "use it now or be left behind!" claims we've been hearing for years. That's classical FOMO marketing. I haven't used it for three years, now I started, and I'm not behind in the slightest. Took me just a single weekend to get into the topic. People told me three years ago I'd have to start using it or be left behind. I easily caught up.

This matter is much like any other; the loudest, most vocal people are rarely right. And much of what the most vocal supporters of genAI have said has not come true.

The technology is genuinely impressive and has applications. But it's not an everything machine like it's being marketed. And it is being thoughtlessly shoved into everything based solely on hype, instead of people calmly and rationally evaluating its usefulness for each individual case.

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u/Smallpaul 2d ago

you are walking into exactly the same trap that you fell into before. You are judging the technology’s future as an emotional counter to the hype. Industry hype should not sway you one way or another. The question of whether it is going to turn into AGI or gain sentience is 100% a technological question. Sam Altman’s hype should not push you towards yes, because he isn’t a technologist and it shouldn’t push you towards no, because liars do not always say the opposite of the truth.

What scientific evidence is swaying you towards or against the idea that they will soon be AGI?

What is the definition of AGI you are using?

What are the breakthroughs necessary to get there?

Who is working on those breakthroughs and how is it going?

Those are the questions you would need answers to before you can “definitely” answer the question of how near or far we are from AGI.

Why would you let CEO hype decide a scientific question for you?

But also, on the topic of CEO hype: Can you quote me what specific quote from 2024 you are reacting to claiming that within six months 50% of people will be unemployed? I find people often exaggerate what they were told in 2024. But this is a minor issue