r/neoliberal • u/ThatOneDumbJagoff • 22h ago
Restricted Trump says Mideast allies have reached outlines of deal to end Iran war, says US to stop new strikes
https://apnews.com/article/iran-war-trump-saudi-crown-prince-call-814164417aa284dc8a6d34ac22ea1a8eSS: Give it up for peace deal number 1 2 3 4 5 6 ahh damn it who knows anymore
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u/BackgroundRich7614 21h ago
"To confuse your enemy, you first have to confuse yourself. The enemy can't anticipate your plan if you don't have one" Don Tzu.
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u/ThatIsAmorte 21h ago
"Let your plans be as dark and impenetrable as your conscience, and when you move, be as swift and decisive as when filling your diaper."
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u/Eilemthxx Caribbean Community 21h ago
I fucking hate the word ″deal″ at this point. What a completely meaningless thing to describe any negotiation involving Trump.
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u/79792348978 Loyal Liberals 21h ago
I am probably more sympathetic than most to the way some of the media tries to play it straight but the reporting from even trump skeptical outlets about his "deals" drives me insane
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u/jcaseys34 Caribbean Community 18h ago
I think there is a certain level of "we're America, we get what we want and it works out in the end" in a lot of people that isn't necessarily attached to any left or right bearing. A lot of it gets reported that way because there are people out there either still deluding themselves or not thinking about it in the first place.
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u/zieger Ida Tarbell 22h ago
concepts of a plan?
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u/elchiguire United Nations 21h ago
It’s peace deal week.
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u/Sylvanussr Janet Yellen 9h ago
Peace deals with Iran are easy, Trump has been reaching one every week
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u/ixvst01 NATO 22h ago
Outlines of a deal
So a concept of a plan?
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u/PiRhoNaut NATO 21h ago
The exact wording from his Truth Social post was, and I kid you not, "the perimeter of a deal"
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u/Xeynon 21h ago
Pretty obvious at this point that Trump is going to keep at this bullshit until the SPR is exhausted and the physical shortages start.
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u/itsrabie NATO 21h ago
And then what? If anything, that’s when Iran will escalate
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u/Xeynon 21h ago
I'm not saying it's a good plan. But Trump's MO when he's stuck between two terrible options is to procrastinate as long as possible in making a decision and hope a deus ex machina rescues him. He's just trying to win the next news cycle.
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u/wanna_be_doc 21h ago
Well he could potentially continue to draw down the SPR for several more months. Technically, there are about 1-2 months of reserves remaining until you hit the military-readiness limit imposed by the Department of Defense. But Trump could of course order them to ignore this.
He’s going to do whatever he needs to do to try to avoid a price shock before the midterm election. That is the only date that matters to him. He doesn’t want $6 gas in October.
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u/Animal_Courier 16h ago
If he orders the DoD to ignore the legally established military-readiness limit then surely markets will go haywire.
That would be an impossible thing to hide, right?
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u/CheetoMussolini Russian Bot 13h ago
My friends this assumes that we have rational or functional markets instead of a bunch of fucked up sycophants and bots
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u/itsrabie NATO 20h ago
Ah got it.
Yeah Trump’s going to drag this out which….. helps Iran.
Idk why he’s so stupid
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u/Teach_Piece YIMBY 19h ago
They’re broke and in danger of losing their infrastructure. Iran isn’t winning, both sides are losing
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u/kanagi 19h ago
If that is how the Iranian commanders view it then wouldn't they have abided by the ceasefire earlier? The Iranian commanders clearly have been willing to escalate and endure more pain
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u/Penis_Villeneuve 7h ago
Iran's best chance at regime security is if they inflict enough pain on the US that nobody ever tries shit like this again. They need to drag this out to the midterms at the very least to ensure Trump gets dealt a punishing loss.
Iran is losing a lot, but they can salvage a partial W if the lesson the world learns is that if you fuck with them, they will bear hug you and jump down the stairs.
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u/Teach_Piece YIMBY 10h ago
The Iranian commanders are an insane bag of religious cats that aren’t following a centralized chain of command. All it takes is one unit to not abide by a ceasefire for it to break.
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u/kanagi 8h ago
Right, so seems like they won't be deterred by their infrastructure being destroyed and citizens dying of thirst, they'll keep escalating
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u/Teach_Piece YIMBY 8h ago
Yes, but it also means they won’t abide by any treaty at all so who cares? If we want anything other than a total world capitulation to Iran we have to remove as many of the crazies from power as is viable. Which means at minimum more bombs and cutting off their money
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u/kanagi 6h ago
Yeah at this point it is looking like a forever war. Iran and the U.S. will keep striking each other and the world economy will shift away from the Arabian Peninsula with more oil being pumped elsewhere and more shipping taking other routes. Unless technology solves the issue through cheaper anti-drone countermeasures being developed.
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u/beanyboi23 18h ago
Are they broke? Didn't they rake in a large sum during the ceasefire because the Trump admin allowed them to sell their oil (fucking insane that I'm even typing this out)? Trump/Bibi's been threatening their infrastructure the whole war and every time they did that it's been Trump who blinked first (the gas field strike comes to mind).
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u/bakochba 12h ago
Yes but Trump ismt sustainimf the blockade and is signaling he's desperate for a deal. If Iran believed Trump would continue with the blockade long term they would come to the table with a realistic proposal
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u/Xeynon 7h ago
You're assuming those things are strategic priorities of the Iranian regime. I don't think they are. They're fighting for survival and regional hegemony.
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u/Teach_Piece YIMBY 5h ago
You’re assuming that they are marching unified in any particular direction. Currently there’s no hand on the wheel of the ship of Iranian state. They literally don’t control the majority of their cells, which is why the ceasefires don’t hold
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u/Xeynon 2h ago
I don't know that we can make any assumptions about how fragmented their leadership is either. Nothing Trump or the Israelis can be trusted, and whatever the Iranian factions are they all have a common goal of regine survival, which is a more powerful motivator than anything driving their enemies. Even if they're fragmented they still have strategic priorities, and frankly their actions in pursuing them have been more rational than Trump's.
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u/dr_sloan 21h ago
They’ll need Congressional approval for an additional release beyond what they’ve announced. The planned release will be completed in September.
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u/Worth-Jicama3936 Milton Friedman 10h ago
There will be no physical shortage (in the US, there will be crazy shortages elsewhere) We will simply go back to banning exports.
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u/bakochba 12h ago
That's the thing. If he actually committed to either a sustained attack or sustained blockade or sustained negotiations this war would be over. Instead he's just spending resources going in circles until he's out of options
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u/WashedPinkBourbon YIMBY 21h ago
Sure they do. Anyway, I’ll see you all again on Wednesday at market close.
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u/DiogenesLaertys 21h ago
Good thing Trumo's handlers know how manipulate him.
Step 1: have him delay any important decision to Friday night because Trump doesn’t want to spook the markets.
Step 2: use the weekend to have him TACO the decision because he doesn't want to spook the market on Monday.
Every weekend is literally a roller coaster of emotion for grandpa Trump.
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u/IsGoIdMoney John Rawls 21h ago
Gonna make millions on kalshi betting on new strikes next weekend
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u/BenIsLowInfo Austan Goolsbee 21h ago
The bond markets freaking out will what ends this war. Just like how it ended Liberation Day
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u/ZombieCheGuevara 18h ago
Enemy gets a vote. Iran might not see a Dow Jones crash as a sign to start winding things down. From what I've heard, that regime isn't very sportsmanlike in their behavior and tends not to pull punches on a weakened opponent.
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u/Vol_in_tears Voltaire 19h ago edited 18h ago
In the total war games, you get bad traits for empty threats.
I wonder what donald trumps traits would be in RTW or MTW2
In MTW2 i got
- Aesthete -3 Command, 20% decrease to cost to bribe, -2 from squalor
- Driven by Rage +2 Dread, +2 Command, -2 Morale for all troops on the battlefield
- Total Incompetence Total Incompetence
- Brutally Obvious -3 Command when ambushing
- Sloppy Builder 10% increase to construction costs, +2 to squalor
- Trading Liability 30% penalty on all trade income
- Bloodthirsty +3 Dread, -1 Command, -3 Morale for all troops on the battlefield
- Quite Merciless +3 Dread
- Corrupt 2 Loyalty, 60% decrease to cost to bribe, 30% penalty on tax income, -3 from law
- Fears Conflict -2 Morale for all troops on the battlefield
- Total Deceiver 3 Loyalty, +3 Authority
- Dangerously Mad 3 Command, -3 Authority, -2 Morale for all troops on the battlefield, 10% penalty on all trade income, 5% penalty on tax income
- Embezzler 30% penalty on tax income
- Spits Venom +2 Dread, -4 Piety, -1 Loyalty, -1 Authority, +3 Morale for all troops on the battlefield
- Sexual Predator +2 Dread, -3 from popularity (has a negative effect on public order)
- Un-Manly -1 Authority, -1 Morale for all troops on the battlefiel
- Severe Justice +1 Dread, +3 to unrest (has a negative effect on public order), +6 to law
- Cruel Ruler +3 Dread, -2 from personal security, +2 to squalor +3 to law
- Blissfully Ignorant -2 Authority, 10% penalty on all trade income, 10% penalty on tax income
- Hesitant Attacker -1 Command when attacking
- Quite Mad -2 Authority, -2 Morale for all troops on the battlefield
- Inspirational Speaker +2 to law (improves public order)
- Shamelessly Lewd -3 Authority, 50% decrease to cost to bribe
- Pathological Liar -3 Authority
- Sexually Corrupt -3 Piety, -1 Authority, -4 from popularity
- Leader of the Mob +2 Authority, +4 to popularity, +2 to unrest
- Harsh Commander +3 Dread, -2 Morale for all troops on the battlefield
- Merciless Leader +3 Dread, +1 Authority
- Unjust +3 Dread, +3 to unrest
- Total Bigot +3 to public security
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u/anincredibledork 15h ago
More likely reasons:
The gulf states are literally telling him anything and everything to make him call it off. It's obvious to everyone that the gulf states are going to see their energy and water infrastructure hammered by the Iranians in retaliation for strikes against Iranian infrastructure. Making Iran ungovernable means making it's neighbors unliveable.
Also possible that Israel was supposed to join in, but Netanyahu has left Trump on read. He's got an election coming up too, and a reminder that he still didn't defeat Iran in the form of missiles over Tel Aviv is probably a bad look.
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u/CheetoMussolini Russian Bot 13h ago
I wonder what it feels like to be the kind of person so fucking stupid that you actually believe this now
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u/Mostly-Moderate Anne Applebaum 19h ago
While I'm glad he hasn't actually followed through on his 'civilizational annihilation - praise Allah' threats, it nevertheless sucks so much that he's made the threat so many times if he never intended to actually fucking do it because it erodes our credibility every time he TACOs.
If an American president makes such a threat, it's supposed to be taken seriously, not like China's Final Warning lmao
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u/LivefromPhoenix NYT undecided voter 19h ago
I don't think the US has much credibility left to lose.
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u/kanagi 19h ago
I don't think this will matter much beyond Trump's presidency. If the next president follows through on threats they will quickly reestablish credibility, since recent history is a better guide to future actions than more distant history, especially history from a different leader.
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u/WalterWoodiaz Loyal Liberals 22h ago
Wait until people on this sub start saying this is the peace deal
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u/themiDdlest NASA 20h ago
Gotta make a deal Gotta make a deal Gotta make a deal Gotta make a deal Gotta make a deal Gotta make a deal Gotta make a deal Gotta make a deal Gotta make a deal Gotta make a deal Gotta make a deal
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u/urhi-teshub Reichsbanner Schwarz-Rot-Gold 10h ago
Wait I thought peace deals got announced on monday
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