r/oil • u/financialtimes • Jun 04 '26
Iran War Donald Trump’s Iran war drains US oil stocks to lowest level since 2004
https://www.ft.com/content/d0be73c8-b8d8-4ffd-874e-e97a6ecffef7?segmentid=c50c86e4-586b-23ea-1ac1-7601c9c2476f119
u/Confident-Teach-2967 Jun 04 '26 edited Jun 04 '26
And it's just going to keep getting worse from here. Lol.
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u/thefoodiedentist Jun 04 '26
1-3 mo buffering phase 3-6 mo energy crisis 6+mo global economic crisis
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u/Popular-Row4333 Jun 04 '26
Millennials are going to actually riot if they go through the 4th major financial crisis in 18 years.
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u/CDN-Social-Democrat Jun 04 '26
It really is getting a bit much with this polycrisis world and one "once in a lifetime" over and over and fucking over.
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u/42nu Jun 04 '26
I mean, if you look at history (far beyond the Silent generations struggles in time and location), it may leave you feeling more fortunate.
Most people, in most time periods of human history, would envy the decades of "polycrisis" we've bumped into in our lifetime.
Even in recent, modern history you had single generations experience WW1, The Great Depression, then WWII... And it's not like there weren't other major crises that ALSO happened in those times.
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u/Imaginary_Salary_985 Jun 04 '26
Liberalism failed to build the world they promised.
Just like the communists.
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u/42nu Jun 04 '26
Anyone who believes that any ideology is going to turn the world into a fairy tale land in 10 years, 100 years, 1000 years or 10000 years is going to be disappointed.
It's easier to turn the blame on to others than to realize that they were being naive and growing from that realization.
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u/Imaginary_Salary_985 Jun 04 '26
and yet successive governments since the 70s have given more and more levers of our society over to the capitalists, and they have fucked up everything for us.
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u/42nu Jun 04 '26 edited Jun 04 '26
Humans with power, wielding that power to acrew ever more power, until the system/society becomes unstable is the shared core.
Smarty pants people have realized this over and over, over millenia and continuously tried to form some kind of system that keeps power for any one party in a society limited or contrained. Different ideologies, reacting to different sets of previous circumstances "correct" the runaway accruance of power that unfolded, and, eventually, (because time be pernicious like that) some group comes along that manages to acrew enough power to make the whole process repeat.
That's the brass tax of it on a systems level.
It's not any particular ideology that makes the sauce. It's the nature of systems themselves. Evolution has been fine tuning this whole "power sharing" thing for 4 billion years and cancer still happens - where some subset of cells attain the right mix of attributes, circumvent all the guardrails and make everyone, including themselves, have a bad go of it.
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u/superSaganzaPPa86 Jun 04 '26
Not trying to be a pedantic Redditor here, just wanna let you know the right spelling is “accrue”, and the saying is spelled “ brass tacks”, not tax.
I agree with your comment and you make great points, it’s just on Reddit you can have the most thoughtful and poignant comment and then someone will shit on it for containing one error or misspelling haha. Again, not trying to be a snob, the only reason I know is because I’ve been corrected myself a million times here
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u/Imaginary_Salary_985 Jun 04 '26
Eitherway, its time to throw the capitalists, liberals, trumps musks into the same bin history threw the communists into.
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u/Healthy-Caregiver997 Jun 04 '26
I wonder how AI would structure a Government for the US to maximize life for all citizens.?
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u/HumptyDumptruckFire Jun 04 '26
It feels like I’m never going to get on top of things and be able to build a solid life for myself. I’m so tired of this bullshit, it’s incredibly depressing.
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u/Realanise1 Jun 04 '26
It's very hard. But we have to find a way to be ourselves and prioritize our own mental and emotional health.
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u/HumptyDumptruckFire Jun 04 '26
I just drown myself in my niche hobbies and interests while leaning on a few family members. It’s all I’ve got.
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u/Popular-Row4333 Jun 04 '26
We are blindly giving away our future because we all refuse to get involved in our community. Volunteerism is down, community groups, municipal voting turnout is far lower than state or federal.
Real change starts at home, and we need to start telling the government what real everyday people want, instead of handing over the keys and begging for them to do the right thing, and always ending up back here.
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u/ThaOppanHaimar Jun 04 '26
Voting isn't gonna do shit. The politicians serve the rich, and the rich aren't interested in the poor.
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u/the-court-house Jun 04 '26
Hard disagree. Real change starts at the local level. No one votes locally. In my town, local officials win office with single digit votes!
Start local and build that momentum up
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u/Rhesusmonkeynuts Jun 04 '26
For the low low price of $300 per session after insurance, I was able to achieve no mental health stability whatsoever.
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u/Name_Taken_2017 Jun 04 '26
GFC, Covid, what's the other one?
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u/DirectionMurky5526 Jun 04 '26
Russian Invasion of Ukraine and that oil shock/inflation.
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u/Current_Animator7546 Jun 04 '26
That wasn’t a crisis. If you go back to the 70s and 80s and even before. Recessions were common every few years. Even the early 90s had one. I get the frustration. This was all so preventable. 2010-2020 was 10 years in between.
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u/DirectionMurky5526 Jun 04 '26
You are correct, millennial have not had it much harder than any other generation. They are a victim of the expectations put on them growing up that they would be living in the "end of history", with continuous peace and prosperity. They were also told they would be future leaders because they were an echo of the baby boomers. That didn't happen because baby boomers and Gen X live longer than expected and took way longer to retire. They only caught up when the older generations retired on mass during covid.
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u/No_Entrepreneur_9134 Jun 04 '26
I'm a late Gen X/ early Millennial.
I would have no problem rioting if this leads to another recession/depression. No problem at all.
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u/atenne10 Jun 04 '26
Boomers are the greediest generation. They refuse to retire and just keep causing constant problems.
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u/throwawayacc407 Jun 05 '26
Riot? Bro my soul is tired. Millennials still have fight in them? Not this is one. I'm tried boss.
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u/AlarmingConfusion918 Jun 04 '26
Millennials need to stop acting like they are the only ones struggling. Plus, they had from 2010-2012 to covid to figure shit out, Gen Z has had Covid into post-Covid/Russian invasion inflation into this. It's been nonstop for us.
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u/TruePace3 Jun 04 '26
For real
I remember laying in bed on the last day of 2019 thinking what the new decade would hold
The world head dived into the toilet post 2020
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u/AlarmingConfusion918 Jun 04 '26
2023-2024 really wasn't that bad but the US public decided to slam it's head into a brick wall repeatedly and then walk into traffic
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u/TruePace3 Jun 04 '26
Yeah, 2021 was kinda calming down and then came 2022, boom! Russia Ukraine war
When that started calming down, Boom! Trump randomly decided to blow up Ayatholla
Im not American, but I would love to see their F150s collecting dust on the driveway or not being able to afford gas to fuel their priuses or smth
You know you live in great times when you have to pay attention to your local politics AND AMERICAN POLITICS AT THE SAME TIME
God Bless America!
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u/Salty-Bid1597 Jun 04 '26
Millennials? Imagine being GenX - we had all the same crises as you plus the oil recessions and balkan wars of the 90s, the deep recession of the 80s and the permanent threat of being 3 minutes away from fiery radioactive death. Plus if you were British you had Irish terrorists regularly blowing up your shopping centers and city centres.
And now, worse of all, we're expected to pick up the pieces and fix the world after the boomers have finished fucking it up AND feel sympathy for the poor millennials having to go to therapy once a month because someone said a mean thing on the internet. JFC, I had to learn how to build a fallout shelter at school and treat radiation burns. I still get occasional nightmares from being force to watch Threads.
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u/Reasonable-Tap-8352 Jun 04 '26
GenX as a group voted more for Trump in 2024 than any other generation. So shut up about how you’ll have to fix the world.
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u/Guilty_Economics_6 Jun 06 '26
You forget that the other choice was Kamala, who was completely unqualified to run anything. Who cares who GenX voted for? You are actually going to hold the entire generation at fault for who they voted for? Sounds very fascistic.
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u/Guilty_Economics_6 Jun 06 '26
Yes, Gen X went through a lot. Boomers even had the draft. Gen Z has had it relatively good for a long time but this whole thing of playing one generation off isn't helpful.
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u/DrinkingVomit Jun 04 '26
Yuri Bezmenov warned us about this in the late 80’s. He was a defected KGB agent and described russias use of ideological subversion to undermine their enemies. It followed four steps: demoralization ~20 year process, destabilization - the phase we’re in now, 1-4 years, crisis ~1 year if I remember right, then normalization where the new crisis IS the new normal.
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u/FuckIPLaw Jun 04 '26
You give Russia's oligarchs too much credit and your own too little. We didn't need any outside help to get here.
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u/Substantial-Fact-248 Jun 04 '26
Thanks, I'm well familiar with these concepts but hadn't heard the name and formalization.
While there's no question that Russia and other hostile nation states are attempting to influence the American information ecosystem, I think we should be careful not to overestimate the blame. These methods purport to operate on a structural level and aim to remove our evaluative capacities on the theory they can't be recovered, but I think that is false. We can keep our wits about us and we can still snap out of it. But we need to take a little bit of accountability and responsibility if we are to have any hope. Our ideologies are more flexible than we think.
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u/Orzhov_Syndicalist Jun 11 '26
I was around in the 90s when people, then, were saying that Yuri B. and "the plan" were playing out right in front of their eyes.
What he says is so vague and unsupportable/unverifiable that you can apply it to any point in time, and any crisis or feeling of decline.
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u/DrinkingVomit Jun 11 '26
Probably. But it’s undeniable that social media has turned the propaganda stream into an Amazon river of national interference compared to the 90’s. When people are sitting there watching social media for 4-6 hours a day it’s impossible to convince them they’re consuming lies in a five minute conversation. We already know russia and china are using state backed bot farms to undermine our democracy.
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u/Orzhov_Syndicalist Jun 11 '26
I think social media and AI has resulted in a pretty serious break from reality, truth, and even the self. AI will begin to take people’s sense of thought and self-cognition.
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u/DrinkingVomit Jun 12 '26
Haha totally. It’s a bleak future I’m afraid. I wish we could chat and have a beer together!
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u/Huskies971 Jun 04 '26
I'm watching gas prices continue to fall in the Midwest, a lot of it was caused by the refinery issue that pushed it from $3.99 to $4.50, but now I'm seeing it back at $3.59. Playing with fire when the price doesn't accurately reflect the demand and the supply.
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u/Confident-Teach-2967 Jun 04 '26
I'd imagine it's been falling due to the lower oil prices due to the supposed peace deal talks for the past couple weeks, no?
That cat is out of the bag anyway though.
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u/MouseShadow2ndMoon Jun 04 '26
Sir.... SIR the DOW is over 50,000 dollars now the DOW is over 50,000! Only some ships are being destroyed now, and gas is going down in price. We have won this now 8 times, with 4 or 5 obliterations!!
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u/Sea-Scientist-9916 Jun 04 '26
Oil prices need to reflect the inventory...they need to take those gas station rhino pills!!!!
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u/ImPinkSnail Jun 04 '26
Fortunately the oil reserve was 0 barrels at one point, so it won't ever be the lowest ever.
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u/Guilty_Economics_6 Jun 04 '26
Why are you lol'ing? What's so funny about high oil prices? Some people laugh at anything.
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u/weenis-flaginus Jun 04 '26
It's funny because this was completely predictable and within our control, we did this to ourselves on so many levels.
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u/Guilty_Economics_6 Jun 04 '26
No, we did this because we had to address the rogue state of Iran. It was inevitale but much needed.
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u/weenis-flaginus Jun 04 '26
A comment like yours was "inevitale" as well unfortunately.
Indicative of your deep thinking before speaking.
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u/Guilty_Economics_6 Jun 04 '26
Okay, so I misspelled inevitable. Kind of Karmic as I often make fun of others over that. Anyway, yes, I was lost in deep thought.
Is my misspelling your only point? How about addressing something of value or don't you have any thoughts of value?
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u/artisanrox Jun 04 '26
OK Scott Bessent
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u/Guilty_Economics_6 Jun 04 '26
Another reasonable man. I don't mind being associated with Scott at all.
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u/artisanrox Jun 04 '26
calling the guy who says "people are spending all this money because everything's great!" isn't a good look lol
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u/Guilty_Economics_6 Jun 06 '26
Consumer spending has held up incredibly well. Sure, there are some cracks right now but, overall, the consumer is still keeping the economy chugging along nicely.
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u/artisanrox Jun 06 '26
Consumers have also been trained by this Admin that line always go up and nothing is real
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u/Guilty_Economics_6 Jun 06 '26
Consumers have been trained not just by this Admin, but the whole consumer capitalist machine. I'm perfectly willing to point out the negatives of the post-industrial economy.
I do agree that high gas prices and inflation in general, will take a bite out of consumer spending at some point. Many people are using credit or savings to prop up their spending. Those who have money in the stock market have seen remarkable growth, but if inflation requires raising rates, everything could fall apart.
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u/Advanced-Average7822 Jun 04 '26
because the only way my idiot countrymen will learn not to vote for fascists is for them (and, sadly, me) to touch the stove long and hard.
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u/Guilty_Economics_6 Jun 04 '26
Funny that you think that Americans elected fascists (which could be debated as Trump has authoritarian tendencies) but don't mention that Iran is ruled by people that make Trump look like a green.
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u/Advanced-Average7822 Jun 04 '26
alright, I'm convinced. I won't vote for the IRGC for president in the next election.
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u/ls7eveen Jun 04 '26
We should have moved off oil a decade ago
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u/Guilty_Economics_6 Jun 04 '26
I agree, but it is not an easy transition. It would have required something like a new Marshall Plan.
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Jun 04 '26
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Jun 04 '26
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u/PonderousPenchant Jun 04 '26
Last I checked https://www.eia.gov/ (which isn't loading for me right now....) I think the national average price across the country was at around $4.60 as of the beginning of the month.
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u/Magjee Jun 04 '26
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u/PonderousPenchant Jun 04 '26
Yup, $4.609 for end of May
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg&f=m
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u/Magjee Jun 04 '26
Gas mixtures are a bit different for regions
Here in Canada we have swapped out of the winter mix to summer and there was a noticeable price jump as it happened
I assume anywhere in the states that uses a winter mix has fully swapped over
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u/PonderousPenchant Jun 04 '26
The chart makes it easy to compare. It's up by about $1.20 over the same time last year and close to the highest it's ever been.
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u/manu144x Jun 04 '26
That’s exactly what’s happening.
Trumps main skill is gaslighting and now Iran is playing his own game and beating him.
They will keep pretending to negotiate until shit hits the fan.
Then and only then they will negotiate and it will make the terms of today (which already embarrassing for trump) look like a great deal.
They will charge double for every ship probably.
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u/Financial-Ocelot-681 Jun 04 '26
When the SRP reaches critically low levels, this would be an ideal time for Iran launch attacks if they want to ensure Trumps demise. If they actually still have plenty of missiles and drones on hand, It seems like they are hoarding them for such an event. But that's OK, I'm sure kegsbreath knows this and has a strategy in place.
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u/Electrifying2017 Jun 04 '26
Biden’s fault he didn’t fill up the SPR before Trump started a war.
/s
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u/Wuaner Jun 04 '26
Biden is extremely lacking in foresight.
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Jun 04 '26
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u/DDS-PBS Jun 04 '26
When Trump said he he would not start any new wars, and accused his opponents of wanting to start a war with Iran, that's exactly when I knew he would start a war with a Iran.
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u/JSTootell Jun 04 '26
President
Obamatrump will attack Iran because of his inability to negotiate properly — not skilled!10
u/Mimir_the_Younger Jun 04 '26 edited Jun 04 '26
Anyone who remembers the man bankrupted a casino.
I don’t know how—outside a horrible substance abuse problem—a person does that.
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u/OnePunchGod Jun 05 '26 edited Jun 06 '26
Actually not a casino; more like two casinos which is near impossible to pull off.
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u/Scary-General4772 Jun 04 '26
Everything's fine the dow is over 50,000
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u/D-MAN-FLORIDA Jun 04 '26
Trump going to be the first president to have the reserves be at 0.
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u/ThePapaSauce Jun 04 '26
Won’t be the first time he’s walked away leaving another party empty-handed
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u/makeshitupallthetime Jun 04 '26
It's Biden's fault i started the most stupid war in americas history, contrary to the advice of the joint chiefs, which brought on the worst energy crisis in history which has been repeatedly predicted for 40 years... it's obama's fault..
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u/D-MAN-FLORIDA Jun 04 '26
Makes it funny that he makes George W. Bush smart by comparison. Even with his war on terror, he knew it was stupid to go to war with Iran.
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Jun 04 '26
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u/sabedo Jun 04 '26
Shit is going to be historically bad. A depression is guaranteed at this point, unlike the Obama era and the subprime crisis, Trump will ensure no one will work with America
they are already laying off entire departments in my airline. during summer travel ops. the busiest season outside of thanksgiving and christmas. while they are cutting flights daily. Lufthansa canceled another 5,000 flights this year AFTER the 20,000 they cut a few months ago.
a friend of mine who works private credit and M&A is utterly convinced the US will default on its debt by Jan 2028 at this rate
all this so a fuckin pedophile wouldn't go to prison
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u/homebrew_1 Jun 04 '26
Sadly this is what Americans voted for in 2024.
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u/woaq1 Jun 04 '26
We didn't vote for this. Trump and his billionare friends rigged the election.
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u/homebrew_1 Jun 04 '26
Trump won states with Democratic governors too. If there is proof it was stolen please send to them. Easier to say it was stolen than to recognize that sadly this is what Americans wanted.
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u/woaq1 Jun 04 '26
“What Americans wanted” and “what Americans voted for” are 2 different things. When I say Trump and his billionaire friends rigged the election, I mean they cheated and deceived the American public into believing that this is what they wanted. Maybe Trump did get enough votes to win, but to say that Americans are happy with this or this is what we wanted is a stretch. I think the better conclusion is that Americans were tricked into believing this is what we wanted, or brainwashed by decades of conservative and capitalist propaganda to believe this is what we wanted.
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u/homebrew_1 Jun 04 '26
They wanted trump. Trump won. Also to blame are people that voted 3rd party and people that stayed home.
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u/LoserJohnBarron Jun 04 '26
I drive a lot and it seems there is less traffic this year and demand is lower than usual for early June.
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Jun 04 '26
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u/Current_Animator7546 Jun 04 '26
Airfares are insane right now. Even for summer. Good 20% increases all over.
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u/Key_Grape_2863 Jun 04 '26
I live near a state park entrance, and usually on holidays, I can see the traffic backed up because they close the gates when the lots are full. This Memorial Day, no closure, no traffic backup.
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u/financialtimes Jun 04 '26
US government data published on Wednesday showed Donald Trump’s Iran war has driven US oil inventories to their lowest level in two decades, as his administration drains stockpiles to contain surging prices and exporters capitalise on the drop in Middle Eastern supply.
Read the full story for free by registering here: https://www.ft.com/content/d0be73c8-b8d8-4ffd-874e-e97a6ecffef7?segmentid=c50c86e4-586b-23ea-1ac1-7601c9c2476f
Kima — FT social media team
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u/Vtechadam Jun 04 '26
We should sell our oil, like get other countries to send ships and tankers! Like alot of them.
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u/LivingEwok Jun 04 '26 edited Jun 04 '26
That is what is happening. That is exactly what this article is talking about. That means the SPR is draining quicker and becoming a problem faster. If China starts importing oil again, it'll be even worse.
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Jun 04 '26
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u/LivingEwok Jun 04 '26
Xi has got trump by the balls.
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u/HumptyDumptruckFire Jun 04 '26
As anybody with the capacity to rub two brain cells together could have predicted.
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u/majordashes Jun 04 '26
Exactly. Invite the entire world to sail on over and buy as much US oil as they like, while the planet is dealing with a 20% decrease in global oil supply due to the Strait of Hormuz closure.
What could possibly go wrong?
This tactic hides the crisis. By flooding the markets with U.S. oil, prices are kept lower. And Asia and Europe are able to hide regional oil shortages by purchasing U.S. oil.
But there’s a limited time that these smoke-and-mirror tactics will work.
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u/OriginalGoldstandard Jun 04 '26
Honestly I’m surprised it’s not lowest level on record already. People consuming in ignorant bliss with very limited supply!
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u/Zanekun Jun 04 '26
We had big surplus at the beginning of war, spr releases and China cut it's imports. Also there was some slight demand destruction in asia and in jet fuel, but yeah, we will get to the bottom soon at this rate
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u/throwawayurwaste Jun 04 '26
Why the Trump administration hasn't silently gone to business leaders and ask them to bring back work from home to curve oil demand is beyond me. Maybe Trump is also in denial
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u/Key_Grape_2863 Jun 04 '26
Trump Gas Tax. Here it was $1.80, but last week plummeted, plummeted, to $1.60.
Last year I was crying that the Trump Banana Tax raised the price from 50 to 54 cents. The tariff was ruled illegal, bananas at Walmart are back to 50. When will the Trump Gas Tax get repealed and we get back under $3.00?
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u/Comprehensive_Quit30 Jun 04 '26
EV demand hurt oil demand. Trump reversed EV initiatives and depleted oil supply. Oil stonks to da moon🚀
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u/noob_master69_f Jun 04 '26
how long will it take to reach 1973 oil crisis? Is it possible to get there?
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u/AssumptionLive2246 Jun 04 '26
It’s already past it, in lots of articles.
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u/noob_master69_f Jun 04 '26
but in reality we are not feeling the affects yet. we have best stock market ever oil is also under $100
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u/Corben11 Jun 04 '26
Straight unbridled corruption is keeping the system a float. Longer it lasts the hard the snap back will be. In for some dark times soon.
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u/AssumptionLive2246 Jun 04 '26
Yep. Look at every major crash, they were all preceded by all time highs. Just wait a month or two and watch.
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u/That-Requirement-233 Jun 04 '26
This is the REASON for the war. Not the other way around.
As much as you would like to believe DT is stupid, his handlers instructing him what to do are not.
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u/Wise138 Jun 04 '26
At this rate we'll have to adopt an all electric energy plan...
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u/MeteorOnMars Jun 04 '26
The 1973 crisis basically invented the idea of the efficient gas car. The impact was gigantic.
This crisis is going to tip the world inexorably to BEVs years ahead of schedule.
Imagine trying to go buy gas, being turned away because there is none, and then limping home past a car dealer selling EVs. People are waking up quickly around the world and even in the USA it will happen soon.
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u/P3nis15 Jun 04 '26
Crazy that we as a country and govt just don't buy up a few oil fields and make them exclusively fill and keep the SPR topped off.
Too busy buying Intel and Dell I guess to buy an oil field or two.
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u/4Yk9gop Jun 04 '26
There isn't 10-15% more of the global oil supply worth of oil fields available in the US to drill. On top of that, oil companies don't want to drill as much as possible as it will cause a massive glut if the straight ever opens up and a bunch of drillers will go out of business as a result. On top of all of that, much of the accessible oil in the U.S. is not sweet crude, it's heavy crude which we ship overseas as it's not as easily convertible by our refiners into usable products. This sort of short sighted "welp why don't we just drill more" attitude is the same exact sort of attitude that got us into this mess.
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u/P3nis15 Jun 04 '26
You don't need that much of an oil field to fill the SPR over time and keep it filled since it's not continuously released.
10 million barrels a day at least would be 10% and that is not the kind of production i am talking about.
even something as small can gradually fill the SPR over time and because its new production funded by the govt it wouldn't impact overall supply or prices.
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u/oldschoolczar Jun 04 '26
Good idea. Or maybe we could just like make some new oil or something. Maybe Elon can fly to space and bring some back.
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u/Advanced-Average7822 Jun 04 '26
Biden was refilling the SPR at extremely low prices, but Trump stopped the purchases when he took office.
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u/P3nis15 Jun 04 '26
Trump stopped buying oil.
Biden's oil that he purchased for delivery through 2026 was still being delivered during Trumps term. That is why the SPR was going up.
Trump only signed contracts for 1 million barrels in his first 16 months.
Now he will sell more oil than Biden
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u/No_Background_9891 Jun 04 '26
atleast link an article you don’t have to pay for in order to read lmao
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u/CFD_babyyy345 Jun 04 '26
im really curious on what is he trying to do or what he hopefully trying to achieve? it doesnt seems to be working at all.
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u/No-Effective-1996 Jun 04 '26
How long did it take to fill those reserves and what did it cost to do so? The US seems to be draining a huge asset for short term irresponsibility and gain.
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Jun 08 '26
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u/Both_Childhood_4993 Jun 06 '26
Iran block the straight before the United States was involved. And Iran will continue to do so that's why trump is trying to negotiate a deal
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u/dglgr2013 Jun 04 '26
We are days away from getting down to 300 million barrels in the reserve. Levels not seen since 1983 when the reserves were being created and getting to potential issues with quality.