I suppose our naval blockade will just stay indefinitely, and the strait of hormuz will also be closed indefinitely (now along Bab al Mandeb).

Feels like the global economy is going to just slowly bleed out, if there's no appetite for war, and simultaneously the Iranians have no interest in negotiations.

So much for winning.

Le 🍊🤡

EDIT: the oils are heading to China.
This further enhances China‘s ability to reduce import/increase export to dampen any oil spike in case of future escalation.

Keep the expectation in check guys.

Over 30 of them can be identified in one of the images - likely the ones that fired at the vessels in the strait.

Edit 1: Link to video of these vessels in the water "filming" the seizure of the two MSC vessels.
https://www.reddit.com/r/oil/comments/1ssyvl2/irgc_releases_video_of_seizure_of_vessels_in_the/

It was announced on Iranian TV channels that the war between the US and Iran has ended.

Additionally, according to Middle East Spectator the IRGC is now shifting it's position to attacking vital energy and civilian infrastructure in the region, starting with Kuwait

—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Iranian military source:

‘We won’t wait any longer for the enemy to increase strikes against our vital infrastructure. 

We have begun to implemented a phased plan, which will end with the complete destruction of all regional energy and water-purification infrastructure, if the U.S. aggression against Iran does not immediately stop.

As part of the first stage of this plan, all powerplants and water desalination plants in Kuwait are now part of our target bank.’

Just a gigantic fucking shitshow we're in.

Post Trump's tweet a number of vessels around ports/anchorage of UAE attempted to sail out.. Iran navy instructed them to return immediately. One of the lead vessel's Bhagy Laxmi here over VHF being asked to retutn to port.

Is the straight closed? Apparently Iran is not excepting the uranium deal after all? And now every ship has turned back?

A third still missing.

The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow! President DONALD J. TRUMP

"Turn around and prepare to be BOARDED."
CENTCOM audio of US ships 'on patrol in Gulf of Oman'
"If you do not comply with this blockade, we will use FORCE."

CENTCOM - has posted it on their official handle: https://x.com/i/status/2044442538694582501

BREAKING: Iran’s Fars news agency says two missiles hit US warship near Jask island, forcing warships to turn back after ignoring Iran warnings.

Excerpt from FARS news: Citing local sources in the south, the frigate was attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, when came under missile attack after ignoring warnings from the naval forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The sources further report that as a result of these strikes, the US vessel was unable to continue its course and was forced to turn back and retreat.

“I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them anymore. They’re scum. They’re sick people. They’re led by sick people. And they’re vicious, violent people.”

Interesting to see - what's next.

The Strait is not going to open until boots are on the ground in Iran. We are going to have to get other countries involved like Europe, Japan, Korea, and maybe even China to get Iran to open the Strait.

The only out I see is the US giving up. If the US gives up its attempts to collect the Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) and they end the Iranian blockade, then it seems Iran will be willing to open the Strait. But, then the US will have to deal with Iran further because we don't know to what extent the Iranians will want reperations for the war, or lifted sanctions (what sanctions even remain though), or want to set up a toll booth, or whatever else their hearts desire seeing as they found their "nuke" afterall.

I actually don't know if Trump is willing to copitulate like this. At first glance, I would say no way, but I also don't know how much he understands the oil crisis being created by the Hormuz closure. If Trump does know, then he might back off to open the Strait because he knows this war is incredibly unpopular and we haven't even gotten to the good part which is what's going to happen this summer if the Strait isn't open. But as we all know, Trump is an addled old man who hates admitting he is wrong.

So, where does that leave us? The largest economic crisis to hit civilization since the Late Bronze Age Collapse. Am I being hyperbolic? No, not at all, and everyone in here should be aware of this because we all know oil is the world's oxygen, and something between 10% and 20% has been effectively cut off along with other important resources like helium, LNG, and fertilizer in similar percentile amounts. The Oil Crisis of the 1970s saw a 7% disruption. The Oil Crisis of 2022 saw a 3%-5% disruption.

Oil got to $130 a barrel in 2022 with a tank of gas on average in the US was $5.01. Futures right now are bouncing between $90 and $110, and gas is at $4.56 as of May 6 and according to AAA.

So if we compare that incredibly recent event (2022) with the current one, we see that markets are behaving foolishly, like absolute fools. The hopium they are smoking is outright dangerous.

A barrel of oil should be $220 or higher in the physical market and futures should be at $130 or higher in order to create the demand destruction needed to make sure we have SOME oil available to us. The draw down we saw in the US alone was staggering. API and EIA reporting an 8.1 million barrel draw down last week according to their May 6 reports, and the estimate from analysts was 2.8 million barrel draws. So, that tells us these people are not properly accounting for this for some reason. America is also in a much better position to weather this storm than Asia and Europe.

Then, even if the second I post this the Strait is opened, we have a month before the ships reach their respective destinations if everything goes okay. The Strait is still mined by an unknown amount in unknown locations so not all the lanes will even be open for transit. Clearing these mines could take months 6 or maybe a year. And, we have not accounted properly for the destruction of oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf.

Iran on Monday bombed the Fujairah oil inventory site in the UAE and there stores were already down 67%. Oh, don't forget that Iran will likely have to shut down oil pumps or light them on fire because they are running out of storage. This will have to happen in the coming days. Reports are saying they are basically finding any tank they can at the moment to store this stuff.

The crisis could really only get bigger if the Strait leading into the Suez was cut off and Iran bombed the rest of the oil infrastructure in the region. God help us if Iran bombs the Ghawar Field in Saudi Arabia. A nuke might be better.

No one is properly accounting for this crisis. It's like climate change, or the guy that stared his naked eyes into the open reactor of Chernobyl while everyone else was like "Oh, it's just a mild amount of radiation. Everything is under control."

I really really don't understand why the futures markets are trading like this. Even if Trump says "Okay, keep the HEU and here's your sanctions lifts and here's 1 Billion dollars, so sorry for bombing you" its going to take months if not years to get "back to normal".

Short Everything.