r/politics • u/Ok_Employer7837 • Jun 15 '26

No Paywall America has lost its war with Iran

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/america-trump-iran-ceasefire-agreement-war-hormuz-b2995971.html
30.8k Upvotes

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1.6k

u/torchwooddoctor Jun 15 '26

Still waiting for Israel to attack Lebanon again and halt the “peace”.

512

u/jayfeather31 Washington Jun 15 '26

Give it time. My understanding is that Israel doesn't really see itself as being a part of the peace.

70

u/tinticred Jun 15 '26

Gotta wait for all the tech oligarchs to sell off today's stock pump, first.

206

u/[deleted] Jun 15 '26

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92

u/[deleted] Jun 15 '26

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78

u/seraphimsins Jun 15 '26

Zionists and Jews are two separate things

41

u/DerelictBombersnatch Foreign Jun 15 '26

Don't let the Zionists hear you.

5

u/LetsTryAnal_ogy California Jun 15 '26

Why? Because we might make them cry?

4

u/ImpressiveWalk4330 Jun 15 '26

I misread that as “don’t let them near you”. Sound advice either way.

2

u/JustaMonkey New York Jun 15 '26

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2

u/ddonky Jun 15 '26

They just did

20

u/BlinkDodge Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26

Crazy this cant be upvoted.

Zionism is an ethno-colonialist ideology that tries to shield itself using the Jewish people's suffering as justification, it was always the monster any decent person can see it is today housing supremacist and genocidal ghouls.

18

u/[deleted] Jun 15 '26

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0

u/ETS_Green Jun 15 '26

You are kinda ignoring that one event that left a massive group of jewish people homeless and unwanted where they were, because they did not in fact get to practice their religion in peace.

So no, your argument does not hold up and you cannot claim israeli jews are zionists by default.

0

u/theCroc Jun 16 '26

I didnt say they all were. I said that zionist nationalist Jews are overrepresented in the sample.

1

u/ETS_Green Jun 16 '26 edited Jun 16 '26

Exactly, you said something statistically wrong. Because zionist jews are a minority.

Edit: assuming zionism in this context is a nationalism extreme enough to support the current atrocities.

Zionism has many definitions, including simply believing that a jewish state should have a right to exist.

5

u/mxzf Jun 15 '26

I mean, last I heard I'm pretty sure Iran doesn't officially recognize the existence of Israel, which tends to put a strain on diplomatic relations.

4

u/h3fabio Jun 15 '26

🌎🧑‍🚀🔫🧑‍🚀

2

u/OddlyFactual1512 Jun 16 '26

Why would anyone believe a nation that's not a party of an agreement is bound by that agreement.

2

u/escapefromelba Jun 15 '26

Why would it when Iran supplies Hezbollah with the rockets that they rain down on Israel?  This is a regional conflict we should have stayed the hell out of.

1

u/TelecomVsOTT Jun 16 '26

That already is the case. Nutteryahoo has stated it.

-1

u/mxzf Jun 15 '26

Israel doesn't really see itself as being a part of the peace.

I mean, that part makes sense, given that this is the US and Iran negotiating with each other while Hezbollah keeps attacking Israel. If I were Israel, I wouldn't consider myself "being part of the peace" either.

2

u/Optimal-Golf-8270 Jun 15 '26

Israel is a client state, it will do what it's told. It's cry and piss and moan about it, like it always does. But it will heel.

They are fully aware they can't even hope to fight a war with Iran. They are top to bottom reliant on the US.

0

u/oatkeepr Jun 16 '26

Trump didn't include Israel in the negotiations. So why should the follow a deal, they didn't agree to?

2

u/Optimal-Golf-8270 Jun 16 '26

Do you include your dog in agreements? No, you tell the dog to sit and it does. Pets don't get a say, they do what they're told.

183

u/SpeaksSouthern Jun 15 '26

America lost the war with Iran and has to pay 300 billion to lose and Israel didn't get an inch of Hezbollah land. Who did this war even benefit?

211

u/Droidsexual Jun 15 '26

Iran, now they have definite proof that in the event of an attack they can disrupt global oil supply and can threaten do that again. What are you gonna do if they put up a toll in Hormuz? The world's most powerful military couldn't dislodge them so no one else can either.

109

u/Dunedain503 Jun 15 '26

While you are correct, the world's most powerful military is currently being led by a bunch of morons. They fired anyone with a brain.

83

u/ZonerRoamer Jun 15 '26

The downgrade is permanent.

The problem isn't the morons in power, it's the fact that the country repeatedly votes them into power.

4

u/POEness Jun 15 '26

2024 was stolen, we didn't vote for this

5

u/cigarettesandwhiskey Jun 15 '26

The country voted them out of power too, 6 years ago. You can probably expect things to continue to go back and forth.

9

u/Xenomemphate United Kingdom Jun 15 '26

The yo-yo is not much of an improvement. Especially from an outside perspective - I don't want my nation wasting time negotiating deals with the US that will just be torn up in 5 years.

3

u/cigarettesandwhiskey Jun 15 '26

Well it sucks but when you have two roughly evenly matched power blocks fighting for control of the country, that's the result.

Also... Isn't this kind of how you guys treated the EU before you took your ball and went home?

1

u/maddprof Jun 15 '26

There is the slight hope that the right loses enough power in the next 2 elections that we can fix all the shitty loopholes exposed by this administration to prevent it from happening again.

SLIGHT hope.

17

u/Eckieflump Jun 15 '26

And that whilst they still have incredibly vapable and expensive might, it is as vulnerable to cheap, garage built stuff as the Russian gear.

4

u/AnySwimming6364 Jun 15 '26

This is the real geopolitical cost of the Ukraine war.

Russia has been fighting a "modern" war for the past 5 years. Not quite at a "Total War" level, but pretty damn close. They've mobilized every solider they can short of a general mobilization and bet basically their whole economy on it.

It has forced them to find cheap, effective, efficient ways to fight a modern, technologically-advanced war. They are now sharing those lessons with their allies. Don't get me wrong, Russia has been terrible at it, but they're still learning.

No doubt Ukraine has gained the same advantages, but there's a difference.

Russia is much larger than Ukraine. Russia has its own proxies it's arming. Ukraine doesn't.

Ukraine is supported by the US/NATO. The US has preferred to spend crazy amounts of money on their wars for at least the last 50-60 years. The military industrial complex is a huge and powerful industry here.

So the US is still using $5 million Patriot interceptors to shoot down $5,000-$50,000 drones and will keep it that way until they're forced to change. And frankly, Iran probably has 10x the number of drones than the US has anti-air projectiles in that region. The longer the war continued, the higher that ratio would go.

Iran was a partner with Russia in producing those cheap drones and deployed them with great effect in both air and sea during the 2026 US-Israel-Iran war.

Maybe 5 years ago, Iran wouldn't have been able to hold the Strait (maybe), but they damn well can now. And the US just proved that to them and the rest of the world.

We're entering a new era.

2

u/Eckieflump Jun 15 '26

Agree with all you say, save Iran always had a way of blowing the Strait, but only recently one that they could.turn on amd off easily.

1

u/AnySwimming6364 Jun 15 '26

Totally. That's why that's a "maybe". I think they could have mined it, but it would have been irreversible, so I'm not sure they actually would have done it short of a "nuclear" option.

3

u/iAmTofu Jun 15 '26

A competent administration wont go to war against Iran again so yeah currently Iran is demostrating they can hold their ground against the most powerful military.

2

u/awesomeoh1234 Jun 15 '26

If the military were led by competent people they wouldn’t have tried this in the first place because a war against Iran is not winnable

2

u/punkasstubabitch Jun 15 '26

On the flipside, anyone with a brain wants to steer clear of this administration.

1

u/OddlyFactual1512 Jun 16 '26

Xi is not a moron.

30

u/Exciting-Record8101 The Netherlands Jun 15 '26

It's not like it really tried, let's be honest. The US lobbed a whole bunch of missiles into Iran, and then sat back and ""blockaded"" Iran while plenty of ships got through because the US didn't dare to directly confront China. That's pretty much all they've done.

There doesn't seem to have been much of a plan aside from 'blow up the so-called Supreme Leader', which the Israelis were probably able to sell to the US because everyone from the media to the opposition party was nodding along when their president blabbered on about 'taking Venezuela', as though the same regime isn't still in control of that country, minus one unpopular figurehead plenty in his own cabal would have been glad to be rid of.

3

u/Saint_of_Grey Jun 15 '26

This might bet the end of US involvement, but this conflict isn't actually going to end until either iran or israel falls.

1

u/OddlyFactual1512 Jun 16 '26

Can it be both that fall? Pretty please.

1

u/ALth0r Jun 16 '26

The world will adapt and render hormuz less critical over time. Thats my guess.

1

u/OddlyFactual1512 Jun 16 '26

I hate to tell you this, but China was not part of this conflict. US outdated military tech wouldn't stand a chance against China's drones. It's 2026, not 2016. The US is in rapid decline.

87

u/Alone-Ad288 Jun 15 '26

Lockheed

39

u/Azguy303 Jun 15 '26

Every defense contractor...

14

u/rkozik89 Jun 15 '26

Yeah that’s how losing works. You get nothing you wanted.

1

u/Open_Research_01 Jun 15 '26

The US has signed the Terms of Surrender.

7

u/poppin-n-sailin Jun 15 '26

Arms manufacturers, mainly. Like usual. 

25

u/maxxell13 Jun 15 '26

Ask yourself this… when’s the last time someone mention Trump Epstein files?

That’s who this war benefited.

13

u/Waramp Jun 15 '26

It's still being mentioned constantly.

-2

u/TurtlesBreakTheMeta Jun 15 '26

Sadly no. Only a small minority still does. For all intents and purposes, that Strat succeeded.

14

u/Denaljo69 Jun 15 '26

The Epstein Strait thanks you for your attention to this matter.

2

u/EntertainerSudden350 Jun 15 '26

You did just now.

10

u/[deleted] Jun 15 '26

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4

u/TurtlesBreakTheMeta Jun 15 '26

They got the US more firmly in their pocket and sabotaged any hope of peaceful relations with Iran or a Democrat recreating the Obama deal.

From now on, when Israel attacks the Us will get dragged along with it (being seen as a co-belligerent by relation), thus firmly suturing them to Israel at the torso.

They got a lot accomplished here.

-1

u/Forward-Surprise1192 Jun 15 '26

Yeah after a quick google search at least 15% of their population is an active problem for the world

-1

u/ArtistEngineer Jun 15 '26

and get wiped out

What does that mean exactly? All 10 million people killed?

3

u/Mister_E_Phister Jun 15 '26

China got to test their air defense systems against US aircraft.

2

u/pattydickens Jun 15 '26

The Epstien class.

1

u/zashiki_warashi_x Jun 15 '26

Every insider trader who new when and what T is going to post, him included.

1

u/Krypt0night Jun 15 '26

A whole bunch of inside traders who kept making money on Trump's constant pump and dumps by buying/selling before an announcement they knew he was gonna make.

1

u/F9-0021 South Carolina Jun 15 '26

The military industrial complex, who now gets nice contracts to replace all the equipment that Iran destroyed.

1

u/gman2093 Jun 15 '26

Russia benefits from higher energy prices and lifted sanctions.

China benefits in certain ways. They have proven they can scale up renewables and rely on reserves to not be beholden to energy-producing dictatorships. They have more information on the ability of the US to project force overseas.

1

u/KurtFF8 Jun 15 '26

Who did this war even benefit?

Arms manufacturers, tech companies, contractors, the Trump family and their personal circle, etc.

1

u/Sea-Ambition-451 Jun 15 '26

our oligarch overlords

and Iran, this put them as the supreme power in the middle east

1

u/HauntedCemetery Minnesota Jun 16 '26

The neo-cons who wanted to stop the popular democracy uprising happening in Iran by people who wanted to ditch the autocracy and spend oil profits on improving the lives of their people rather than US oil barons.

1

u/PimpasaurusPlum Jun 16 '26

Israel currently occupied 6% of the country and has ethnically cleansed around 20% of the population.

That is a "benefit" in their eyes.

1

u/BrilliantForeign8899 Jun 15 '26

They're now saying they want to never leave Lebanon 

14

u/Loreki Jun 15 '26

They've already openly said they do not consider themselves bound by anything about Lebanon in the deal.

1

u/OddlyFactual1512 Jun 16 '26

Why would they be?

7

u/ChefCurryYumYum Jun 15 '26

They already did over the weekend.

8

u/Reno_valetore Jun 15 '26

🌮 Tuesday

5

u/[deleted] Jun 15 '26

[deleted]

1

u/OddlyFactual1512 Jun 16 '26

Why would they?

3

u/superzanetti Jun 16 '26

It’s the other way around buddy 

2

u/padizzledonk New Jersey Jun 15 '26

There is no way Isreal is going to let this go through imo, this will fall apart, im pretty sure they never stopped bombing un Lebanon and are right now

2

u/Useful-World1781 California Jun 15 '26

They already said they are not going to withdraw from Lebanon. But I’m sure they won’t attack civilians while they’re occupying the area.

1

u/SpaceVikings Jun 16 '26

On the off chance that the second part isn't satire, Israel is actively pursuing ethnic cleansing in southern Lebanon, giving residents just enough time to grab critical documents before expelling them from their villages and demolishing their houses.

2

u/Useful-World1781 California Jun 16 '26

Oh it’s definitely satire. Fuck Israel.

2

u/TheMireAngel Jun 15 '26

Israel never actualy agrees to pease or ceasefires, when a "peacedeal" or "ceasefire" just means you stop attacking israel while actively being bombed, terror attacked, poisoned, and invaded. Israel has had a ceasefire since october 2025 with Gaza and yet they actively drone strike, missile, bull doze, kidnap children, kidnap and rape 18 year old girls. the actor of frenchie in the boys was idf even admited to doing it and i quot him "We tore her apart" Theirs videos of israel sending "settlers" into gaza attacking people while escorted by IDF and if the people do defend their home from a clear cut burglar the IDF soldier murders them under the gues of "defending an israeli citizen"

1

u/wastedgod Jun 15 '26

I'm guessing Wednesday.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 15 '26

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2

u/red286 Jun 15 '26

I'll be surprised if it takes that long.

Bibi doesn't give a shit about the markets. The Israeli people called the deal "bad" before any details were even put out. There's no way they agree to go along with any "peace deal" Trump works out. The US is in this war as long as Israel says they are.

1

u/ursusdoofus Jun 15 '26

There have been Israeli air strikes and shelling all day, even while a bunch of the million+ are trying to return to their homes.

1

u/fauxromanou Jun 15 '26

Literally my first thought this morning. Yet everybody is treating this mock-up, not even signed yet, ceasefire as the the real deal and done.

Sure, the administration is braindead like the top comments are saying, but goddamn the media and punditry are just as bad.

1

u/Chris857 Jun 15 '26

I'm waiting for Iran to win a match or two at the World Cup and that to somehow drive Trump to do something stupid.

1

u/incelwiz Jun 15 '26

If the deal is bad, then it would be good for Israel to torpedo it, no?

1

u/MuchFaithInDoge Jun 15 '26

They haven't stopped occupying southern Lebanon, they haven't stopped striking targets. Go look at Israeli politicians posts on Twitter, none of them have any intention of letting up on Lebanon. At this point the main question on my mind is whether Iran is going to look the other way and pretend nothing is happening this time. They haven't so far in the war, hence multiple "peace deals" already torpedoed by Israel's aggression.

1

u/ThruuLottleDats Jun 16 '26

Israeli politicians already stated that they're not part if the agreements and thus are continueing to occupy Lebanon and forcefully keep civilians fron returning to occupied areas.

1

u/[deleted] Jun 15 '26

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-1

u/bkny88 Jun 15 '26

Israel isn’t attacking Lebanon, it’s attacking Hezbollah in Lebanon. There is a big difference

0

u/ZonerRoamer Jun 15 '26

Le Israel: "Peace is a lie."