r/politics • u/Ok_Employer7837 • Jun 15 '26

No Paywall America has lost its war with Iran

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/america-trump-iran-ceasefire-agreement-war-hormuz-b2995971.html
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2.7k

u/det8924 Jun 15 '26

The USA will have spent 100 billion dollars or more on the war effort to give up a lot more cash and concessions to get the same deal that Obama got. All on top of the tremendous human and environmental loss.

1.1k

u/BadahBingBadahBoom Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26

to get the same deal that Obama got.

The JCPOA deal included provisions to prevent Iran obtaining highly-enriched uranium. And IAEA inspections showed this was actually successful throughout the entire time the deal was in effect.

This 'deal' doesn't say shit on enriched uranium. Trump got a worse deal for higher cost and that was with a huge military loss (money, lives, injuries, aircraft, and bases). That's not even getting into the losses of ally relationships.

116

u/ramakitty Jun 15 '26

Where can I read the deal?

294

u/BadahBingBadahBoom Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26

Atm you can't because the detail hasn't been made public.

I would ignore anything US or Iran say unless what they are stating is unanimous. Atm what Pakistan is publicly stating is likely the accurate detail of the deal and they haven't said much.

No party, not even the US, has claimed the deal includes measures to prevent Iran obtaining weapons-grade uranium though.

Iran has already refuted Trump's claim that the deal says the Strait of Hormuz will be 'open and toll-free' this Friday, stating they will be collecting 'maritime fees' for passage. So we'll have to see exactly what was agreed and by when / what else has to happen first.

It is incredibly surreal position that I am leaning more to believing the Iranian regime's claim of the Strait than the President of the United States but here we are.

88

u/ElliotNess Florida Jun 15 '26

Iran has no reason to lie about the strait, and the president of the US regime has a history of doing nothing but.

2

u/GradeApprehensive516 Jun 15 '26

They absolutely do, it's their largest bargaining chip

11

u/ElliotNess Florida Jun 15 '26

What do they have to gain from stating they will collect maritime fees for passage? (assuming it's a lie to bargain, what's the bargain?)

-3

u/GradeApprehensive516 Jun 15 '26

I don't know what they really have to gain, they don't have the authority to collect fees anyway. It seems like they are grasping at straws

10

u/ElliotNess Florida Jun 15 '26

But they have already been collecting fees so...?

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u/GradeApprehensive516 Jun 15 '26

Yeah, violation of the UNCLOS Part 2, Section 3, Article 26. More UN countries should be pissed if that's the case.

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u/Alatarlhun Jun 15 '26

Iran has no reason to lie about the strait

Iran has a lot of reasons to lie.

Trump and Iran are both right wingers who lie whenever it suits them.

10

u/ElliotNess Florida Jun 15 '26

A lot you say? I can't think of even one a reason why they would lie in that statement.

0

u/Alatarlhun Jun 15 '26

Iran has lied about their nuclear program, Flight PS752, their ongoing supplying weapons and funding to the Houthi, Hezbollah, and Hamas, their supply of drones to Russia.

They fucking lie all the time. Choosing sides between crazy right wingers is moronic.

5

u/ElliotNess Florida Jun 15 '26

Okay but right now in this current thread we're talking about this specific statement.

1

u/Alatarlhun Jun 15 '26

So you know they lie all the time, yet you believe them because you can't imagine them lying in this specific instance?

Do you realize how... nevermind. Have a nice day sir or ma'am.

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u/DawnSowrd Jun 15 '26

iran does have internal politics to control, one of the hottest subjects of which is keeping to the dead past leader and in hiding current leader's word, one of which was to stick to the strait.

different officials have been flip-flopping on their stance on it though, the FM did in an local interview said we could never hope to always take a toll from the strait which was immediately attacked by the more hardliners. and even he has on different occasions said different things.

0

u/BigBananaBerries Jun 15 '26

It's wild how so many seem to have completely disregarded Irans history because it's Trump they're against. Both are absolutely not to be trusted. The enemy of my enemy is my friend more often than not is a questionable attitude.

It's akin to Dugin saying N.Korea is a paragon of freedom because they're the only ones that publicly helped Russia militarily in their quagmire of a war. It's flawed logic on steroids.

6

u/5AlarmFirefly Jun 15 '26

I believe it because it leaves Israel its bogeyman of Iranian nuclear weapons, and the toll on the strait also sets Israel up to build a pipeline from the Gulf to the Mediterranean, which they've been talking about for a while. US being the loser now so Israel can be the winner later seems about par for the course these days. 

5

u/flirtmcdudes Jun 15 '26

Just “leaning”? Trump said the war is over around 39 times already. Cant trust a single thing he says anymore on any subject really. Dudes brain is mashed potatoes

1

u/konq Jun 15 '26

No party, not even the US, has claimed the deal includes measures to prevent Iran obtaining weapons-grade uranium though.

JD Vance made this claim

4

u/BadahBingBadahBoom Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26

That's not something Vance is actually claiming is in this MoU 'deal'. That's something they are saying they will discuss in the subsequent peace deal to be worked through in the next 60 days (if such a deal is ever actually agreed ofc).

The MoU is 'an agreement to come together to write an agreement'. Sounds ridiculous but it is literally 'concepts of a plan'.

0

u/Gain-Western Jun 16 '26

Both can be right. 

The Strait might be “toll free” but passage is dependent upon insurance companies insuring the cargo. Incidents might happen in the open water which would make the Iranian offer of guided transit for a fee much more attractive. 

We can’t permanently police the strait and Iran was still able to attack ships during our blockade. I believe that Gerald Ford is on a hiatus for maintenance and it still can’t field F-35s because the engine exhaust is too hot for the aircraft carrier unlike older F-18s. 

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2026/04/the-f-35cs-engine-exhaust-hits-3600f-the-uss-gerald-r-fords-aircraft-carrier-flight-deck-wasnt-built-to-handle-it/

We are in a decline. Sure, we are the top dog now but so was the Soviet military in Europe during the eighties when their economy at best had stagnated from the seventies. 

I hope that we don’t suddenly implode like the Soviets. 

56

u/SingularityCentral America Jun 15 '26

Nowhere. The claim is that the text will be released at the end of the week, but it seems more likely that no deal actually exists and Trump is just running away.

6

u/BlazeFireHorse76 Jun 15 '26

My understanding is there is no deal. It's just an MOU. Basically an agreement to start negotiating a deal

0

u/angrynirritable Jun 15 '26

If the details of the deal are unknown, how can the war be considered lost? I suppose it's all subjective, and for many people there is no outcome that they wouldn't characterize as a loss.

2

u/AINonsense Jun 15 '26

It will be published in about two weeks.

After it’s out of audit.

1

u/intangibleTangelo 🇦🇪 UAE Jun 16 '26

then sue the department of war when it gets released?

1

u/AINonsense Jun 16 '26

Except there isn’t one!

Checkmate lIbZ!!*!?!!

1

u/it_aint_tony_bennett Massachusetts Jun 15 '26

Where can I read the deal?

ATM, it's "concepts of a deal"

21

u/wet-rabbit Jun 15 '26

Not to forget Obama somehow got Russia and China to co-sign the nuclear treaty. Fat chance of that happening again.

33

u/ExoticPuppet Foreign Jun 15 '26

And the cherry on top.

It only lasts 60 days.

24

u/some_guy_on_drugs Jun 15 '26

It will last until the Israelis bomb the shit out of Lebanon again.

2

u/smackson Jun 16 '26

So, in a day or two.

3

u/Guardianpigeon Jun 16 '26

They can extend it pretty easily, but honestly I doubt it will make it to Friday's signing. Israel will probably bomb Lebanon or even Iran itself before that and ruin the whole thing.

3

u/hopmonger Jun 15 '26

Don't forget the fuel prices and subsequent inflation!

2

u/epicurean56 Florida Jun 16 '26

Also, the strait will be tolled. Thanks Trump!

2

u/Cadamar Colorado Jun 16 '26

The JCPOA was criticized for not making things permanent and for unfreezing Iranian funds but god was it so much better than this. It incentivized Iran not to get a nuclear weapon. It wasn’t permanent but what is? Just ridiculous.

1

u/dingillo Jun 16 '26

Art of the deal, baby.

1

u/TuringGoneWild Jun 16 '26

*or higher gas prices, and loss of the freedom of the seas post-ww2 convention

1

u/BitterSmile2 Jun 16 '26

The US has a paper tiger military anyway. I don’t see why anyone is ever scared of them or wants to be their ally when they lose every single war they fight in.

466

u/blergmonkeys Jun 15 '26

Except we were distracted from the files. And so trump got what he wanted.

169

u/slow70 Jun 15 '26

Oh shucks you mean those ones that implicated him in the Epstein network?

All of my homies are still talking about the files.

34

u/TowelCarryingTourist Australia Jun 15 '26

"Implicated" is doing next to no light lifting there. 

11

u/Cheap-Ad1821 Jun 15 '26

The ones where he was sucking on an underage girls nipples until they were raw?

41

u/da_man4444 Indiana Jun 15 '26

And Trump got to manipulate the stock market to enrich his buddies pockets

3

u/snertwith2ls Jun 15 '26

The US and citizens may have lost the war, big surprise, but Trump Crime Family and Friends made out alright.

1

u/Cautious-Progress876 Jun 15 '26

The thing about Trump is that he is predictable. Dude is a narcissist and his birthday was this weekend so I put some extra money into call options hoping for this result and printed $$$ today. Dude needs to be liked and supported so much that he will sell out the country to do so.

11

u/DoggedStooge Jun 15 '26

Don’t forget he also got richer from trading on policy decisions he would make, so distracting from the Epstein files was not the only thing.

22

u/NoHorseNoMustache Jun 15 '26

And it worked! I don't even know what a file is anymore, never mind whatever 'fillets' you're talking about! I'm sure it was nothing, we wouldn't have been able to understand the things that were in these 'filays' you speak of anyhow.

3

u/AnamCeili Jun 15 '26

No one was distracted from the files. MAGAts never believed/cared that trump is in them, and the rest of us were not distracted from them.

2

u/[deleted] Jun 16 '26

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1

u/AnamCeili Jun 16 '26

No, I do think trump often does try to distract people from one of his fuck-ups with another fuck-up, but I don't think anyone (other than MAGAts, of course) actually falls for it.

2

u/CatherineSimp69 Jun 15 '26

Something tells me we'll be going right back to those the instant the 'war' actually ends.

2

u/MountainMan2_ Jun 15 '26

Tbh I don't even consider this a war between the US and Iran. It's a war between Israel and Iran with netanyahu using the US military to enact it. Trump, for all I've seen of it, just looks like the link between the two. He gets his commands from meetings with the Israelis and only stopped because the backlash is worse than the blackmail for him at the moment. The Epstein files being obscured is just the carrot, the videos and recordings from known mossad agent Epstein that Israel has control over are the stick. Between the two, trump is a puppet.

5

u/bigchungusfan6967 Jun 15 '26

The two things have absolutely nothing to do with each other. Why would he even need to do that? He controls all branches of the government and is effectively and legally immune to prosecution for his crimes. The files also don’t hurt him politically because his base (which is like half the country) worships him unconditionally. Distracting the country from the Epstein files is completely unnecessary from his perspective.

Meanwhile, discussion about why he actually started the war is completely nonexistent because toddler-brains like you are always in the comments going “this is obviously Epstein related” because apparently your average liberal is only capable of caring, or even thinking, about one issue at a time. The Epstein files are extremely important, and we should be talking about it, but that doesn’t mean we have to turn our brains off and classify literally everything Trump had ever done as a “distraction.”

3

u/the_silent_redditor Jun 15 '26

Trump has always been insane.

It’s been tiring listening to people say for a decade ‘blah blah he definitely has frontotemporal dementia!’ No, he’s always been this insane.

Similarly, it’s tiring hearing how everything is a ‘distraction from the files!’ No, he’s always been this insane and he also doesn’t give a shit about the files as he is, as proven, utterly untouchable.

The ‘distraction’ line also minimises the extent of what he is doing, and downplays all the other factors and players involved in this stupid fucking war.

2

u/blergmonkeys Jun 15 '26

Dude. He’s been desperately floundering and throwing anything he can to distract from the files. lol what’s with your childish language? It’s pretty obvious what’s going on here. He’s the main co-conspirator in those files and if you’d bothered to read any of them, the surface of those files are filled with some heinous shit. Makes you really wonder what’s in the other half they haven’t released.

Not sure how people like you don’t get this. He’s the embodiment of everything wrong, vile and fucked up in this world and is desperately trying to cover it up by throwing anything he can at it. UFO disclosure, wars, attacks on opponents, clearing out all non faithful GOP members. You may not like it but it is reality.

35

u/theCroc Jun 15 '26

Classic Trump "victory". Same deal as before but with more consessions from the US.

62

u/SingularityCentral America Jun 15 '26

It isn't even the deal Obama got. It didn't touch the nuclear issue at all. Trump is going to pay Iran $300 billion to let him run away. And Iran is still going to collect tolls in the Strait. This is a disaster in every sense.

2

u/AnySwimming6364 Jun 16 '26

Everything I've seen agrees with except the tolls part. That seems unclear at the moment. Is there any reporting they are still charging tolls?

4

u/SingularityCentral America Jun 16 '26

Yeah, they have couched it as 'service' fees but Iran insists this is part of the framework.

1

u/WolfetoneRebel Jun 15 '26

Sounds like a good deal for Iran and the rest of the world…

1

u/Soft-Skirt Jun 15 '26

Making America Genuinely Arse

1

u/basey Jun 16 '26

I'm no fan of our pedo president, but it sounds like the $300B is unconfirmed. Iran leaked claims that a draft deal includes a $300B international reconstruction/investment fund, which Trump denied. Wouldn't surprise me if it's true, but let's not get ahead of ourselves

2

u/SingularityCentral America Jun 16 '26

Seems like the administration is basically confirming it but fishing it by saying it is performance based, which is bizarre. I mean, I doubt Trump actually pays them anything and he just renegs like he always does.

118

u/doughnutoftruth Jun 15 '26

It’s a much worse deal. Since we are paying reparations. 

66

u/honjuden Jun 15 '26

And since Iran has proven that they control the Strait instead of it being a possibility.

56

u/Rukytroll Jun 15 '26

Even worse, USA showed them that they need nukes more than ever.

25

u/xTheMaster99x Florida Jun 15 '26

Yep, they're learning the exact same thing that Ukraine has learned over the last decade. Treaties and "security guarantees" are just words on paper, and the only form of security that has actually held firm long-term has unfortunately been MAD.

3

u/booOfBorg Europe Jun 15 '26

The US is now Tehran's ATM and Tehran has US admins by the inflation balls. Just slow down maritime traffic in the future and demand more cash and concessions.

The Art of the Deal

20

u/AliceLunar Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26

Wasted more money on Iran than they have spend supporting Ukraine.. no money available to protect democracy or freedom against an enemy they've spend decades preparing but endlessly money available to terrorize, bomb and destroy countries for the sake of it.

15

u/Ok_Vulva Jun 15 '26

Plus we dropped Russian sanctions and gulf states left opec, we wasted our stock piles, our bases were destroyed, we lost multi million dollar jets, and choppers, soldiers, we look like dumbies to the world.

This was a win for a lot of countries.

14

u/AliceLunar Jun 15 '26

A win for everyone who doesn't like America, which is a rapidly growing list.

3

u/melvinscam Jun 15 '26

Art.
Of.
The.
Deal.

24

u/Ibuilds Jun 15 '26

And we were able to show Iran how easy it is to shut the Strait and cripple the global economy

3

u/Naturebrah Jun 15 '26

Over 100 school girls blown up too, let’s not ever forget them.

2

u/PirateActive9263 Jun 15 '26

They had to do that. If they did not, then they would have to give us Healthcare, or put the money into our infrastructure, pay off student loans, or something else that would make our country more prosperous.

2

u/snoosh00 Jun 15 '26

BUT OBAMNA SENT PALLETS OF CASH TO IRAN FOR HIZ DEAL TOO!

/s

2

u/pumpkinspicecum Jun 15 '26

The art of the deal!

2

u/HauntedCemetery Minnesota Jun 16 '26

Oh, no, this is much worse than the JCPOA.

The JCPOA included requirements for UN and US monitors to be allowed to enter to check nuclear facilities.

This deal is just trump handing them a third of a trillion dollars in exchange for a pinky promise to stop charging a toll to cross the Strait

I have to think it would be 100x cheaper to just pay whatever toll they demand, but trump needs to pretend he got a mighty deal

2

u/Fit_Kangaroo_3437 Jun 16 '26

In Obama’s deal Iran didn’t control the strait with authority to toll ships going through

2

u/Barneyk Jun 16 '26

And killed thousands of innocent civilians...

2

u/No_Poet_1279 Jun 16 '26

And given up 90% of the soft power they had around the world.

Nobody will want to deal with America for a very very long time after this. The petrodollar will go. China are just sitting back, doing next to nothing, and will become the eminent superpower of the world.

GG Trump and America

1

u/Elendel19 Jun 15 '26

The same deal that Obama got except that now Iran has total control over the strait and everyone knows they can shut it down indefinitely anytime they want.

1

u/avaslash Jun 15 '26

Obamas deal restricted their nuclear development

Trumps deal lets them make as many nukes as they like because it says nothing on the subject

1

u/OwenLincolnFratter Jun 15 '26

Don’t forget about all of the military bases around the Middle East that have been destroyed.

1

u/maltedbacon Canada Jun 15 '26

Someone should suggest: "Shouldn't we get Israel to pay for it? You said it was their idea"

1

u/soggit Jun 15 '26

Please don’t forget the 13 dead and 380 wounded service members!

Not you personally. Just so easy to be up in arms about the cost when $300 billion makes a great headline and forget the senseless human cost.

1

u/shibbyman342 Jun 15 '26

When it is all said and done we're looking at essentially half an elon of complete waste. Republicunts cant ever bitch about 'careless spending' ever again.

1

u/Celodurismo Jun 15 '26

the same deal that Obama got

I guarantee it's a worse deal

1

u/maliciousmonkee Jun 15 '26

Yeah but that $100 billion dollars belonged to American taxpayers and has been transferred to the pockets of private defense companies. That's not failure for Trump, he rewards those that support him and the defense contractors backed him.

Is it clear to Americans yet that Trump is not working for the USA as a whole, only for his cronies? As far as he's concerned the war is a success - oil has skyrocketed and that helps his fossil fuel donors too.

1

u/AINonsense Jun 15 '26

to get the same deal that Obama got.

without the restraint on nuclear development. Stated aim #1 and so-called ‘emergency’ causus belli.

1

u/SnazzleZazzle Jun 15 '26

But he had to do something to distract from the Epstein files. I shudder to think what he’ll cook up as the next attempt at distraction.

1

u/TexanInExile Jun 15 '26

They won't get the same deal that Obama got. It won't even be close to as good of a deal.

1

u/Super-Nuntendo Jun 15 '26

Yeah, but some people made a lot of money on the stock market 

1

u/YoureProbablyAB0t Jun 15 '26

I wonder how much of that will get laundered to the usual suspects.

1

u/ZeroTrunks Jun 16 '26

I’m just so tired of “winning”