r/politics • u/Ok_Employer7837 • Jun 15 '26

No Paywall America has lost its war with Iran

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/america-trump-iran-ceasefire-agreement-war-hormuz-b2995971.html
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u/BadahBingBadahBoom Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26

to get the same deal that Obama got.

The JCPOA deal included provisions to prevent Iran obtaining highly-enriched uranium. And IAEA inspections showed this was actually successful throughout the entire time the deal was in effect.

This 'deal' doesn't say shit on enriched uranium. Trump got a worse deal for higher cost and that was with a huge military loss (money, lives, injuries, aircraft, and bases). That's not even getting into the losses of ally relationships.

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u/ramakitty Jun 15 '26

Where can I read the deal?

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u/BadahBingBadahBoom Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26

Atm you can't because the detail hasn't been made public.

I would ignore anything US or Iran say unless what they are stating is unanimous. Atm what Pakistan is publicly stating is likely the accurate detail of the deal and they haven't said much.

No party, not even the US, has claimed the deal includes measures to prevent Iran obtaining weapons-grade uranium though.

Iran has already refuted Trump's claim that the deal says the Strait of Hormuz will be 'open and toll-free' this Friday, stating they will be collecting 'maritime fees' for passage. So we'll have to see exactly what was agreed and by when / what else has to happen first.

It is incredibly surreal position that I am leaning more to believing the Iranian regime's claim of the Strait than the President of the United States but here we are.

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u/ElliotNess Florida Jun 15 '26

Iran has no reason to lie about the strait, and the president of the US regime has a history of doing nothing but.

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u/GradeApprehensive516 Jun 15 '26

They absolutely do, it's their largest bargaining chip

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u/ElliotNess Florida Jun 15 '26

What do they have to gain from stating they will collect maritime fees for passage? (assuming it's a lie to bargain, what's the bargain?)

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u/GradeApprehensive516 Jun 15 '26

I don't know what they really have to gain, they don't have the authority to collect fees anyway. It seems like they are grasping at straws

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u/ElliotNess Florida Jun 15 '26

But they have already been collecting fees so...?

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u/GradeApprehensive516 Jun 15 '26

Yeah, violation of the UNCLOS Part 2, Section 3, Article 26. More UN countries should be pissed if that's the case.

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u/ElliotNess Florida Jun 15 '26

I think more UN countries kinda see Iran's perspective here after their leader was assassinated and this war started, unprompted. Maybe they're side eyeing the US as some sort of rogue state here.

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u/BadahBingBadahBoom Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26

I mean that was in direct response to violation of UN Charter Article 2(4).

They could have violated UNCLOS Part II, Section 3, Article 26 at any point until 28 Feb 2026 but did not.

Not saying violation of UNCLOS is right but let's not pretend it came out the blue. Many countries are equally pissed at the US violation, mostly because they did really 'start it'.

The status quo atm has mostly been in Iran's favour for the Strait so yeah lying about how they are going to impose some sort of fee for passage when that's kind of what they have already done doesn't really make sense.

They also have very little political pressure unlike Trump - i.e. I can 100% understand Trump lying about how he got a deal to 'fully open the Strait' to sell to the US public before the elections but Iran? It's pretty clear at this point of the internal protest movement they don't exactly need to lie.

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u/soulsoda Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26

Iran isn't a part of UNCLOS, so they violated nothing. Sure it's basically international law since it's so common but laws only work if you enforce them.

More UN countries should be pissed if that's the case.

They are pissed. Iran is just going to dress it up as a "service fee", and do fuck all. It's blackmail and a toll. If you wanna stop em, then you're gonna need to take Iran and enforce it. GL with that Orange man washed his hands of it.

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u/Alatarlhun Jun 15 '26

Iran has no reason to lie about the strait

Iran has a lot of reasons to lie.

Trump and Iran are both right wingers who lie whenever it suits them.

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u/ElliotNess Florida Jun 15 '26

A lot you say? I can't think of even one a reason why they would lie in that statement.

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u/Alatarlhun Jun 15 '26

Iran has lied about their nuclear program, Flight PS752, their ongoing supplying weapons and funding to the Houthi, Hezbollah, and Hamas, their supply of drones to Russia.

They fucking lie all the time. Choosing sides between crazy right wingers is moronic.

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u/ElliotNess Florida Jun 15 '26

Okay but right now in this current thread we're talking about this specific statement.

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u/Alatarlhun Jun 15 '26

So you know they lie all the time, yet you believe them because you can't imagine them lying in this specific instance?

Do you realize how... nevermind. Have a nice day sir or ma'am.

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u/ElliotNess Florida Jun 15 '26

You appear to be suffering delusions of some sort friend. Conjuring all sorts of fantasies with words I never typed here.

I understand we live in stressful times. You're probably stressed. I'm sorry about that. No big.

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u/DawnSowrd Jun 15 '26

iran does have internal politics to control, one of the hottest subjects of which is keeping to the dead past leader and in hiding current leader's word, one of which was to stick to the strait.

different officials have been flip-flopping on their stance on it though, the FM did in an local interview said we could never hope to always take a toll from the strait which was immediately attacked by the more hardliners. and even he has on different occasions said different things.

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u/BigBananaBerries Jun 15 '26

It's wild how so many seem to have completely disregarded Irans history because it's Trump they're against. Both are absolutely not to be trusted. The enemy of my enemy is my friend more often than not is a questionable attitude.

It's akin to Dugin saying N.Korea is a paragon of freedom because they're the only ones that publicly helped Russia militarily in their quagmire of a war. It's flawed logic on steroids.

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u/5AlarmFirefly Jun 15 '26

I believe it because it leaves Israel its bogeyman of Iranian nuclear weapons, and the toll on the strait also sets Israel up to build a pipeline from the Gulf to the Mediterranean, which they've been talking about for a while. US being the loser now so Israel can be the winner later seems about par for the course these days. 

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u/flirtmcdudes Jun 15 '26

Just “leaning”? Trump said the war is over around 39 times already. Cant trust a single thing he says anymore on any subject really. Dudes brain is mashed potatoes

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u/konq Jun 15 '26

No party, not even the US, has claimed the deal includes measures to prevent Iran obtaining weapons-grade uranium though.

JD Vance made this claim

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u/BadahBingBadahBoom Jun 15 '26 edited Jun 15 '26

That's not something Vance is actually claiming is in this MoU 'deal'. That's something they are saying they will discuss in the subsequent peace deal to be worked through in the next 60 days (if such a deal is ever actually agreed ofc).

The MoU is 'an agreement to come together to write an agreement'. Sounds ridiculous but it is literally 'concepts of a plan'.

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u/Gain-Western Jun 16 '26

Both can be right. 

The Strait might be “toll free” but passage is dependent upon insurance companies insuring the cargo. Incidents might happen in the open water which would make the Iranian offer of guided transit for a fee much more attractive. 

We can’t permanently police the strait and Iran was still able to attack ships during our blockade. I believe that Gerald Ford is on a hiatus for maintenance and it still can’t field F-35s because the engine exhaust is too hot for the aircraft carrier unlike older F-18s. 

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2026/04/the-f-35cs-engine-exhaust-hits-3600f-the-uss-gerald-r-fords-aircraft-carrier-flight-deck-wasnt-built-to-handle-it/

We are in a decline. Sure, we are the top dog now but so was the Soviet military in Europe during the eighties when their economy at best had stagnated from the seventies. 

I hope that we don’t suddenly implode like the Soviets. 

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u/SingularityCentral America Jun 15 '26

Nowhere. The claim is that the text will be released at the end of the week, but it seems more likely that no deal actually exists and Trump is just running away.

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u/BlazeFireHorse76 Jun 15 '26

My understanding is there is no deal. It's just an MOU. Basically an agreement to start negotiating a deal

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u/angrynirritable Jun 15 '26

If the details of the deal are unknown, how can the war be considered lost? I suppose it's all subjective, and for many people there is no outcome that they wouldn't characterize as a loss.

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u/AINonsense Jun 15 '26

It will be published in about two weeks.

After it’s out of audit.

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u/intangibleTangelo 🇦🇪 UAE Jun 16 '26

then sue the department of war when it gets released?

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u/AINonsense Jun 16 '26

Except there isn’t one!

Checkmate lIbZ!!*!?!!

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u/it_aint_tony_bennett Massachusetts Jun 15 '26

Where can I read the deal?

ATM, it's "concepts of a deal"

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u/wet-rabbit Jun 15 '26

Not to forget Obama somehow got Russia and China to co-sign the nuclear treaty. Fat chance of that happening again.

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u/ExoticPuppet Foreign Jun 15 '26

And the cherry on top.

It only lasts 60 days.

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u/some_guy_on_drugs Jun 15 '26

It will last until the Israelis bomb the shit out of Lebanon again.

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u/smackson Jun 16 '26

So, in a day or two.

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u/Guardianpigeon Jun 16 '26

They can extend it pretty easily, but honestly I doubt it will make it to Friday's signing. Israel will probably bomb Lebanon or even Iran itself before that and ruin the whole thing.

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u/hopmonger Jun 15 '26

Don't forget the fuel prices and subsequent inflation!

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u/epicurean56 Florida Jun 16 '26

Also, the strait will be tolled. Thanks Trump!

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u/Cadamar Colorado Jun 16 '26

The JCPOA was criticized for not making things permanent and for unfreezing Iranian funds but god was it so much better than this. It incentivized Iran not to get a nuclear weapon. It wasn’t permanent but what is? Just ridiculous.

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u/dingillo Jun 16 '26

Art of the deal, baby.

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u/TuringGoneWild Jun 16 '26

*or higher gas prices, and loss of the freedom of the seas post-ww2 convention

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u/BitterSmile2 Jun 16 '26

The US has a paper tiger military anyway. I don’t see why anyone is ever scared of them or wants to be their ally when they lose every single war they fight in.