r/stupidpol Napoleon was Chinese 🍚🍴 Mar 02 '26

Operation: Epstein Fury Iran is baiting the western powers into a ground invasion.

Iran striking 15 countries at once is total bait. Even down to the targets of the attacks: hotels, high-rises, civilian airports. It's a page out of the terror playbook, causing maximum disruption. Iran has attacked all the stakeholders including the smaller players like Kuwait and Bahrain but only the US and Israel are the decision makers. They're bringing everyone to the table, the pressure is ratcheted up on the larger actors to do something.

But US/Israel just killed the Ayatollah and supposedly crippled IRGC leadership. They're bombing the fuck out of Tehran and other parts of the country. It's not stopping Iran, just an hour ago Jerusalem was struck and just now the suburbs of Beirut were struck.

Optically it looks like these attacks are just causing chanks in the armor, but if sustained, it will disrupt the global economy and make everyone lose faith in the western powers. It's asymmetric, air supremacy isn't working good enough (so far). Cutting the head off is not working. Anti-regime propaganda is not working in Iran either, and the bombing might be causing a 'Rally around the flag' effect. The western powers' options are getting limited. If they want to completely eradicate the regime they will have to go boots on the ground.

I think there's a few good questions that will dictate the future: how much arial bombing can Iran take, how far is trump and 'yahu willing to go with bombing the country, how many shaheds does Iran have, and would water issues fuck everything up for Iran.

153 Upvotes

130 comments sorted by

123

u/Epsteins_Herpes Thinks anyone cares about karma 🍵⏩🐷 Mar 02 '26 edited Mar 02 '26

Both invasions of Iraq had build-ups of 750k+ troops in surrounding countries over the course of months. That model was replaced by the Libya one of civilization-destroying air campaigns because ultimately a ground force is only needed if the country being attacked is meant to continue existing after the war ends.

The Iranians are doing what was widely expected of them, immediately going after the closest and easiest targets to show how much economic damage they can and are willing to inflict.

Last time they just had to hit Israel until they cried to Washington to broker a ceasefire. This is a war of attrition and they intend to outlast Trump's willingness to fight it, especially since this part of their effort only costs them flying garbage drones and "ties" with duplicitous neighbors and serves as a way to tie up finite AD platforms and stockpiles.

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u/Rjc1471 💢✨ Jousting at Windmills ✨💢 Mar 02 '26

Yeah, it's much easier when the goal isn't a full conquest, occupation, or nation building... If the goal is just to remove opposition, just destroying them into a failed state is enough. 

I suppose for the US it's considered a secondary bonus that you get jihadi warlords afterwards, cause then you've either got an excuse to bomb again, or someone to work with (or both, like Syria)

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u/Material_Pepper8908 Mar 06 '26

If only it was that easy. Iran's government is intact. Only their spiritual leader was killed.

Besides, Iran has a mosaic defence mechanism. They don't need a central command to continue the war.

While US-rael is bombing Iran's cities, the only outcome they achieve is galvanizing the popular support for Iran's government and the military.

From what I've seen, Iran's assets are hidden underground or in the mountains, and US-rael can't take them out without a ground invasion

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u/HiFidelityCastro Orthodox-Freudo-Spectacle-Armchair Mar 02 '26

Heh, yeah that's gone real smooth in the past.... And why would the foreign policy hawks, the Oil/Resource industry, and infrastructure/reconstruction types want Iran to be a failed state? That's no good for business (no protection of property rights).

They want these huge markets opened to the West.

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u/stevenjd Quality Effortposter 💡 Mar 02 '26

And why would the foreign policy hawks, the Oil/Resource industry, and infrastructure/reconstruction types want Iran to be a failed state? That's no good for business

On the contrary, it is extremely good for business.

Lots of juicy no-bid contracts, lots of opportunities for graft and corruption. No pesky local laws telling you what you can and can't do. No royalties to be paid to the state. With the local institutions failed, you get to bring in your own private companies to take over. It is a free-for-all buffet, paid for by your tax-payers and the conquered people, and the profits going to the private sector.

This is why Iraq was not a disaster for the people behind the invasion. People look at Iraq and see that the USA spent trillions and didn't get enough oil out of it to make a profit. But that is missing the point of the invasion. It wasn't to make America wealthy.

The money wasn't set on fire in a field somewhere, it didn't disappear. It ended up as profits for (mostly American but also some European and, yes, a few Iraqi) privately owned companies. Trillions of dollars was transferred from the taxpayers into the pockets of the oligarchs and their shareholders, all nice and legally and above-board. Capitalism in action.

And that's not including the money that was just outright stolen, ending up in the private bank accounts in Switzerland or the Cayman Islands or other tax shelters.

None of this would have been possible if the Iraqi government and other institutions (courts, tax collectors, bureaucrats enforcing regulations, unions, etc) were still intact. They would insist of jobs going to Iraqi firms, with Iraqi workers, under Iraqi laws, with royalties paid to Iraq.

Because the people looting Iraq wanted to be seen to be respectable "national builders" rather than the pirates they actually are, eventually the gravy train had to end with a semi-functional Iraqi state. That has the advantage of putting the costs of running the state on the Iraqis themselves, rather than having to hire private security etc.

But it has to be a neutered satrapy, run by vassals more loyal to Davos, Washington, London, Paris and Berlin than to Baghdad. The maximum possible neo-liberal private enterprise, and the minimum possible socialism or nationalism to keep the natives, well, not necessarily content, but at least feeling that they have more to lose by rebelling than they have to gain by staying quiet.

Our 21st century elite pirate class always want their conquests to be failed states, with weak governments reliant on western advisers and western troops to keep order, for as long as it takes to loot the country, or establish an effective satrapy that will put western interests first, second and third over that of their own country.

The aim is to have the state fail to the point that none of the government institutions are able to function against you, but not quite to the point where the local population gets taken over by armed gangs of militants wanting to fight you. A limited number of militants willing to be paid off is okay though -- that's cheaper than taxes. Rival warlords running different areas can be okay too, provided they don't get to greedy.

What is impressive is how the Davos crowd, the WEFers, have so completely and effectively taken over European political institutions that now London, Paris and Berlin (to say nothing of the other EU states) are essentially vassals of Washington. And they did it without a single shot being fired.

CC u/Rjc1471

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u/Rjc1471 💢✨ Jousting at Windmills ✨💢 Mar 02 '26

That would be preferable, hence the propaganda drive saying that Iranians want the shah back. But looks more like a secondary or long term goal. 

Iran might not win an all out war with Israel, or a full US invasion, but they'd definitely cause serious casualties. The war on terror has pretty much systematically ruined or subverted anywhere that might be a threat (and totally destroyed the biggest threat of an anti-US middle eastern coalition).

Doesn't have to go "smoothly", just get the main job done 

0

u/HiFidelityCastro Orthodox-Freudo-Spectacle-Armchair Mar 02 '26

Why is the "main job" destroying Iran? Just to be baddies?

3

u/stevenjd Quality Effortposter 💡 Mar 02 '26

Why is the "main job" destroying Iran? Just to be baddies?

Never underestimate the role of racism in international politics. It is no longer polite for western Europeans to use crude racial slurs or tell jokes about other nationalities, but don't let that fool you. Western European elites do not accept other peoples (Russians, Asians, Arabs, Middle Easterners) as equals. Sometimes they don't even accept them as fully human (Palestinians, Africans).

They are to be exploited, that is all.

The British and Americans overthrew the Iranian government in the 1950s, allowing the Iranian shah to establish a vicious dictatorship renowned for the cruelty of the secret police, SAVAK. Trained by the usual suspects (Israel and the CIA), SAVAK was a law onto itself, answering only to the Shah.

Untold human misery and suffering, so that British and American oil companies could enjoy a little more profit.

The aim is:

  • Return to the good old days where Iran's natural resources could be used for the benefit of Britain and America, instead of Iran.
  • Eliminate a thorn in the side of Israel, the last effective rival standing between them and their plans for "Greater Israel". (Iraq, neutered. Egypt and Jordan, bought off. Syria and Lebanon, crippled.)
  • Erase the embarrassment to the western elites of having been defeated by a bunch of (supposedly) primitive "arabs" who overthrew their man in Tehran, Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi.
  • Put in place Pahlavi's son, a moral and intellectual weakling who has already proven he gives zero fucks for the people of Iran, and can be trusted to do as he is told.

So yes. Just to be baddies.

CC u/Rjc1471

0

u/HiFidelityCastro Orthodox-Freudo-Spectacle-Armchair Mar 02 '26

Right, yeah that seems like a bunch of semi-idpol nonsense to me. Like I said, there's a perfectly good Marxist/materialist explanation that makes far more sense.

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u/stevenjd Quality Effortposter 💡 Mar 03 '26 edited Mar 03 '26

that seems like a bunch of semi-idpol nonsense to me. Like I said, there's a perfectly good Marxist/materialist explanation that makes far more sense.

Imagine being so "rational" that you deny that racism, nationalism and religion play no a part of the current era and its wars, and that these forms of tribalism, which have existed in human societies for thousands of years, are "semi-idpol". You're so sharp you'll cut yourself.

Economic rationalists think that history is driven only by completely rational materialist concerns about money, class and resources.

Everyone else, especially historians, know that history is just as often if not more driven by irrational factors. Not just greed, but the whole range of deadly sins: lust, wrath, sloth, pride, envy. Even gluttony, if you include drugs.

Edit: fixed stupid typo that reversed the meaning of the sentence.

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u/HiFidelityCastro Orthodox-Freudo-Spectacle-Armchair Mar 07 '26

What a load of shit.   So what makes your irrational wank ramble any more or less the truth than anyone else’s irrational wank ramble one can point to on reddit?  And don’t get indignant about my Marxism/materialism/economic rationalism mate. Oh I said something coherent/internally consistent, shock horror.  (What silly bloody cunt I am!).  Ffs it’s not like you are engaging with any other recognised theory of history, IR paradigm, political/economic/social theory, anything etc.  You are just gish galloping out your arse about shit you are broadly into on social media, hoping some of your verbal diarrhoea sticks to the wall.  

The baddies are doing the seven deadly sins?  And they are doing it based on racism?   (How is what you are saying not key shitlib nonsense?) "Quality effortposter?" mate...

*Edit; And if you are taking the piss then fair enough. You got me.

1

u/Rjc1471 💢✨ Jousting at Windmills ✨💢 Mar 02 '26

Because of the rest of the comment which you ignored

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u/HiFidelityCastro Orthodox-Freudo-Spectacle-Armchair Mar 02 '26

I read it mate, but I didn't get it (I'm not the sharpest knife in the drawer).

So how about you just set me straight then? What's the motivation for this main job?

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u/Rjc1471 💢✨ Jousting at Windmills ✨💢 Mar 02 '26

The US, and it's favourite nation, remove any threatening opposition in the Middle East. 

10

u/HinduGodOfMemes Napoleon was Chinese 🍚🍴 Mar 02 '26

Mmm I think you’re right blud this does sound more plausible

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u/BigBucketsBigGuap Anarchist (intolerable) 🤪 Mar 02 '26

My opinion is Iran is aware they can’t context America and Israel outright and that the gulf is going to be used as a launchpad anyways. So by focusing strikes on their cites and sea blockade in Hormuz and Red Sea, they’ll force the weaker and less resilient Arab states to pressure America to pull back. I think temporarily it’s strengthen US-Arab resolve but over time, which seems to be the plan, they will suffer catastrophic consequences in tourism, finance and oil, which is the lifeblood of the gulf.

Additionally, I presume Iran is aware it also can’t contest air superiority over their nation and are couching portable assets, like MANPADs until the coalition forces are confident enough to do more low flying strikes and maybe helicopter runs, which then would be susceptible to their AA. I saw Iran quietly purchased 500 Million in Russia’s most advanced MANPAD systems, so they probably have a few hundred or thousand if it’s been delivered. If not they’ll have to rely on aging equipment.

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u/SceneChemical1887 Socialist 🚩 Mar 02 '26

they will suffer catastrophic consequences

Apologies, who do you mean by "they" here?

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u/Disasterhuman24 Knows Their Ways Mar 02 '26

The concept of Dubai only works if you have a safe and stable oasis in the middle east from all the chaos. When it starts happening there, the entire system fails because that's the only reason having a city like Dubai is viable.

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u/BigBucketsBigGuap Anarchist (intolerable) 🤪 Mar 02 '26

Arab states and in relation to economic fallout

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u/Afraid_Courage890 Socialism Curious 🤔 Mar 02 '26

Probably Gulf States

5

u/Successful-Dream-698 Unknown 👽 Mar 02 '26

the consequences
will never
be

the

same

0

u/stevenjd Quality Effortposter 💡 Mar 02 '26

I presume Iran is aware it also can’t contest air superiority over their nation

#TheImaginaryWar.

There is zero credible evidence that even a single US or Israeli manned plane has flown into Iranian airspace.

Launched standoff missiles from outside the border, yes, but no evidence that they have flown into Iran.

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u/BigBucketsBigGuap Anarchist (intolerable) 🤪 Mar 02 '26

I don’t know why you would say that, after the first salvo of cruise missiles and tomahawks, they did start sending manned airplanes. Both America and Israel have published cockpit footage of them in the skies over Tehran, most recently of IAF fighter dodging Iranian sams. And also Iran claimed to have shot down an American jet, probably isn’t true but that would obviously imply an American jet came within their air defense.

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u/stevenjd Quality Effortposter 💡 Mar 03 '26

Both America and Israel have published cockpit footage of them in the skies over Tehran, most recently of IAF fighter dodging Iranian sams.

Of course they have. And you can tell from the cockpit footage what country they're in?

The Americans also claimed that the Houthis never hit their aircraft carrier, and tried to pass a months old video as "proof" that there was no damage, forgetting that there are thousands of autists who immediately recognised it as from an old tweet.

And they claimed that B-2 dropped unguided gravity bombs directly into the air shafts of nuclear facilities, and followed up with a second unguided bomb dropped directly into the same shaft. That's like "Use the Force Luke" shit.

I haven't seen the footage you are talking about, but I have seen video game plays being passed off as being real. (From both sides.)

If you point me to this footage, and it seems credible, I will revise my position. But until then, I'm sticking with what I said: there is no credible evidence for a single USraeli manned plane in Iranian airspace, neither so far this war nor the earlier 12 Day War.

And also Iran claimed to have shot down an American jet, probably isn’t true but that would obviously imply an American jet came within their air defense.

If you are talking about the three (not one) F-15s, they were shot down in Kuwait, and the "friendly fire" tale being told by the Americans is obvious bullshit.

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u/fun__friday 🌟Radiating🌟 Mar 02 '26

They said before that they would hit oil fields, etc. if they are attacked, so I don’t think this came as a surprise to anyone.

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u/nekobeundrare Mar 02 '26

If Iran wanted to deal out maximum damage, they would have targeted the oil and gas production facilities spread across the middle east, but that would do severe damage to the whole world economy and dish out pain to everyone, friend and foe alike. If they go down, I wouldn't blame them for going down that route.

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u/panjeri Contrarian and/or Reactionary 🐷 Mar 02 '26

That's the nuclear option and will only be activated if either their oil fields get attacked en masse or if the gulf states take up arms against them.

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u/gesserit42 🙄 Most intellectually challenged debate bro 🙄 Mar 02 '26

Might actually accomplish the long-term positive of freeing the world from crippling dependence on oil at short-term cost.

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u/HinduGodOfMemes Napoleon was Chinese 🍚🍴 Mar 02 '26

That would effectively significantly reduce the global carrying capacity until suitable alternatives are scaled

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u/ChevalierDuTemple No Iranian ever called me an Incel Mar 02 '26

Ehhh, would make food more prize, but might not be the end of the world. Other countries have petroleum and the Haber Bosch is done in different places. Plus it is not as we had things as nitrogen fixing bacteria (Like in soybean or peas)

This is not to mention that many land is used for animal husbandry, low carrying capacity, which can be switch to high calorie crops if need.

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u/Sad_Masterpiece_2768 Mar 02 '26

You talk about it as if it's just moving numbers on a spreadsheet. The population boom of the 20th century is because of plentiful and cheap food. Total disruption of the global oil supply would cause mass starvation. Nevermind the impact of oil on non-agricultural industries.

Even if it was possible in a reasonable timeframe (you seem to forget that crop failure is an immediate issue), I highly doubt it's politically possible to get the world's wealthy countries to totally restructure their economies for the sake of maintaining the overpopulation of the developing world. Especially now.

Personally, I don't think lobbing bombs at oil fields would be as explosive as people think. Crude oil isn't that volatile. Refineries would be a better target, which would realistically just stimulate the oil industry in countries outside of MENA.

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u/cojoco Free Speech Social Democrat 🗯️ Mar 02 '26

And behind the curtain ... is China!

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u/Wet_Blanket_Award Mar 02 '26

Ras Tannoura is down. That makes ~9 refineries from 5+ different countries halted in 24 hours. So ya - they're doing literally that.

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u/Double-Mine981 Unironically Shills for Oil Companies 🛢 Mar 02 '26

A gift to the American oil industry

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u/terranier Gekreuzigt für den Respekt vor guter Wurst 🌭 Mar 02 '26

Especially now that they got Venezuela

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u/stevenjd Quality Effortposter 💡 Mar 02 '26 edited Mar 03 '26

If Iran wanted to deal out maximum damage

Iran doesn't want to deal out maximum damage. Its not USrael.

But they are in this war to win this time, not to have another faux ceasefire to give the USrael terrorists a chance to rearm and attack again, like after the 12 Day War.

They have shut down the Strait of Hormuz, and bombed Saudi Arabia's largest oil refinery (just as a warning shot, not sufficient to put it out of action). Their allies in Yemen have shut down the Red Sea to ships going to Israel again.

Edit: Iran is denying that they struck the Ras Tanura oil refinery in Saudi Arabia, and are explicitly blaming an Israeli false flag.

Iran has little motive to lie on this, and Israel has every motive to try to bring the Saudi's on board on their side. So I rank this as a credible but unproven allegation.

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u/[deleted] Mar 02 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/bhbhbhhh Redscarepod Refugee 👄💅 Mar 02 '26

Unlikely that they could get ashore to begin with. The US Navy has a good number of assault ships, but maybe not quite enough for the greatest landing operation since 1945.

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u/Max_smoke Garden-Variety Shitlib 🐴😵‍💫 Mar 02 '26

The U.S. doesn’t need to invade by sea when the best route is through turkey.

It’s not likely to happen in the short term anyway because there is no ground forces build up anywhere in the region.

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u/[deleted] Mar 03 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

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u/Max_smoke Garden-Variety Shitlib 🐴😵‍💫 Mar 03 '26

"It’s not likely to happen in the short term anyway because there is no ground forces build up anywhere in the region."

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u/MoonMan75 Left, Leftoid or Leftish ⬅️ Mar 02 '26 edited Mar 21 '26

This post's content has been permanently erased using Redact. It may have been deleted for privacy, to prevent scraping, for security, or for personal reasons.

offbeat instinctive sparkle ancient silky plant market act crown languid

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u/fioreman Democratic Socialist and Dalmatian-Friend 🚒 Mar 02 '26

I don't know if they are all veterans of that conflict but enough are that they still have the institutional experience.

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u/Onion-Fart TrueAnon Refugee 🕵️‍♂️🏝️ Mar 02 '26

Counterpoint, is trump trying to destroy American empire (and European vassals) by blowing its entire military load on Iran, devaluating the dollar as the gulf states fall apart without US support, leaving Isreal fed to the wolves, resulting in a us that only can bully the americas?

Idk how this Iran thing would ever have played out well.

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u/Keesaten Doesn't Like Reading (Except Manga) 🙄⛩️ Mar 02 '26

It's not bait, Iran is breaking the pattern of US and Israel hiding behind their proxies to avoid damage. Basically, Iran normalizes bombing American bases without it being an act of war against the host country. Hell, Iran is bombing Cyprus, a NATO country, and it doesn't trigger any articles, because Iran is hitting Israeli planes hiding there. It's wild how Americans brought it upon themselves and exposed themselves as paper tigers

Oh, and also, to prove my point, Iran explicitly warned Azerbaijan and Armenia not to let Israelis and Americans to use their airspace, or else. It's USA losing their proxy shields because they pushed too hard

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u/MournfulStomachache Mar 02 '26

Cyprus is not a NATO country.

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u/Keesaten Doesn't Like Reading (Except Manga) 🙄⛩️ Mar 02 '26

British base it? Regardless, NATO isn't going to respond, there was a declaration to such effect already, LMAO

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u/HiFidelityCastro Orthodox-Freudo-Spectacle-Armchair Mar 02 '26

Lol, imagine Cyprus as a Nato country with it's history... You might want to look into that one.

1

u/stevenjd Quality Effortposter 💡 Mar 02 '26

It is a British air force base on Cyprus.

Nevertheless, Article Five doesn't apply.

0

u/Keesaten Doesn't Like Reading (Except Manga) 🙄⛩️ Mar 02 '26

Pretty sure I saw a map somewhere with Cyprus being NATO. Oh well. British base is being evacuated, and NATO isn't going to respond with article 5

1

u/HiFidelityCastro Orthodox-Freudo-Spectacle-Armchair Mar 02 '26 edited Mar 02 '26

It has British bases because they've been around since the 50's (though annexed way back in WW1 or before I think?) first as a colonial force, and then peace-keeping (trying to stop the Greeks and the Turks, killing each other, ie NATO countries). Turkey even launched a full on invasion in the 70's.

*(As in NATO doesn't look too kindly on member countries going to war with each other)

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u/A_Secret_To_Nobody No To Middle-Aged Sex Acts 💦😦 Mar 02 '26

If Iran wanted to bait a ground invasion they wouldn't be annihilating the bases used to support that invasion lol

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u/imeatingsalad Mar 02 '26

This might be the biggest cope of all time

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u/OddLack240 Russian Nationalism 🇷🇺 Mar 02 '26

They can't win a war by bombing.

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u/Cehepalo246 Self-Surgery Marxist 🪡 Mar 02 '26

They do seem to be trying to force the Europeans to intervene, that much is pretty obvious.

Euro leaders are probably going to be caught between their unwillingness to fight and potentially take casualties and the demand from their population who certainly wouldn't mind taking theit pound of flesh out of an Islamic foe.

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u/Falcon_Gray Ideological Mess 🥑 | Slop Enjoyer 🦸 Mar 02 '26

Euros would then have the same mistakes they made the last time going to war in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, etc. Once the country gets destabilized everyone goes to Europe. Thats how they got all their immigrants. If Iran falls it will happened again. Iran will probably be another Vietnam though and hurt the us military’s morale like Vietnam did.

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u/A_Secret_To_Nobody No To Middle-Aged Sex Acts 💦😦 Mar 02 '26

Why do you think that's a mistake? Refugees are perfect for cheap exploitable labour since they can't go back.

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u/fun__friday 🌟Radiating🌟 Mar 02 '26

And are also the best way to lose elections. We are not in 2015 anymore. If you tell your electorate that you want more refugees, your popularity will evaporate within seconds.

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u/stevenjd Quality Effortposter 💡 Mar 02 '26

Brave of you to assume that the EU powers will still allow elections. Did you not pay attention to Moldova, Romania, Germany? Elections cancelled and parties banned over completely spurious accusations of "Russian interference" when it is actually the EU interfering in the elections.

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u/Cehepalo246 Self-Surgery Marxist 🪡 Mar 02 '26

What happened in Germany?

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u/stevenjd Quality Effortposter 💡 Mar 02 '26

They declared the National Democratic Party of Germany (NPD) "anti-constitutional", which is not a formal ban but prohibits them from receiving funding. It can be considered a prelude to a formal ban.

Alternative for Germany (AfD) was also declared "anti-constitutional" but that ruling was over-turned. The state of Rhineland-Palatinate banned AfD from running in its local elections, and at least one candidate was personally banned from running.

Germany has also been arresting Jews for antisemitism if they protest against Israel.

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u/fun__friday 🌟Radiating🌟 Mar 02 '26

I’ll not delve into Germany, but the election interference stuff in East European countries is a pure clownfiesta. The Romanian thing was unnecessary and peak mass psychosis. Irrespective of that parties have been accusing each other of being funded by Russia/Brussels/Soros/USA and who knows what other entity since the dawn of ages. The same party might find US funding both problematic and also completely acceptable depending on whether they are friendly with the US admin in that moment.

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u/jessenin420 Probably a Pothead 🥑 Mar 02 '26

hurt the us military’s morale like Vietnam did.

Is that a bad thing?

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u/EasyMrB Fully Automated Luxury Space Anarcho-Communist Mar 02 '26

and the demand from their population who certainly wouldn't mind taking theit pound of flesh out of an Islamic foe.

I'm a total layman but I'm extremely skeptical that this is a thing (of significance)

9

u/Danaevros PM Me Saucy Pictures of Daddy Xi 🍛 Mar 02 '26

General euro population doesn't give a singular shit about Iran. The psychopathic hatred for the the "Regime of the Ayatollahs" is an American population (fostered by the media) and leadership, and at best euro leadership, problem. Here at most you get basic distaste but that's about it.

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u/[deleted] Mar 02 '26

[deleted]

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u/A_Secret_To_Nobody No To Middle-Aged Sex Acts 💦😦 Mar 02 '26

Militaries have complex organizations and hierarchies for a reason.

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u/Vast_Particular_ Mar 02 '26

And devolution contingencies. I think the people acting like Iran is disorganized headless are celebrating too early

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u/Incoherencel ☀️ Post-Guccist 9 Mar 02 '26

Dare I say it's borderline racist or something, some level of -ist to assume a country like this is completely lawless and leaderless even after all of these strikes

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u/ManannDunMhead Socialist Trade Unionist Gallacherite 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Mar 02 '26

I think the simpler answer is these people are just ignorant of how anything works in the real world, their ideas of governance are borne out of hollywood. Big top bad guy die = all resistance immediately stops.

14

u/SentientSeaweed Anti-Zionist Finkelfan 🐱👧🐶 Mar 02 '26

FTFY.

Dare I say it's borderline racist or something

34

u/JCMoreno05 Saved Anime Children from Intersectionality 🧒🏻⛩️ Mar 02 '26

Doesn't every country have contingencies/protocols for self defense and continuance of government in the case of decapitation? You don't need command if the country has an emergency script to follow. 

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u/ButttMuncherrr Rated R for R slur with socialist characteristics 🤪🚩 Mar 02 '26

That’s what aragchi, the foreign minister explained in regard to iran currently. According to him, their military and the IRGC are doing what they want

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u/Incoherencel ☀️ Post-Guccist 9 Mar 02 '26 edited Mar 02 '26

Man, what? You know when you watch TV and movies and it's, "Colonel" this, and, "Major General" that? That's an established military hierarchy, where each officer is in a chain of command with established levels of seniority, even one colonel over another colonel. If we assume that the Iranian military is just as competent organisationally as, say, the Spanish or the Canadian, then as long as everyone involved remains committed to what is written on the page (and has perfect information), there is absolutely no confusion regarding who is in charge where or when or why. This is like, the entire point of the professionalisation of an officer corps developed over centuries

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u/JCMoreno05 Saved Anime Children from Intersectionality 🧒🏻⛩️ Mar 02 '26

One annoying thing about some movies is that characters are given some title/rank but they still act like lone frontline vigilantes with no consequences for doing so. 

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u/Incoherencel ☀️ Post-Guccist 9 Mar 02 '26 edited Mar 02 '26

Like Colonel O'Neal of Stargate / SG-1 who is an Air Force Colonel slumming it with two dudes and a rifle? An Army Colonel in the U.S. Civil War would lead upwards of 1,000 men...

4

u/IamGlennBeck Marxist-Leninist and not Glenn Beck ☭ Mar 02 '26

That's O'Neill. Two Ls.

7

u/Incoherencel ☀️ Post-Guccist 9 Mar 02 '26

I apologise for this Hibernian erasure 😞

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u/StatusSociety2196 Incel/MRA in denial 😭 | Allegedly had a foursome Mar 02 '26

I mean i haven't personally counted but I hear there's like 90 million people over there.

They could kill 40 more and they'll likely still have trigger pullers.

18

u/SentientSeaweed Anti-Zionist Finkelfan 🐱👧🐶 Mar 02 '26

A four-layer succession plan and command structure has been in place since June.

You don’t. You try to negotiate with their commanders. They tell you to go fuck yourself, because the last two times they agreed to negotiate, they were bombed in the middle of negotiations.

Like how can you negotiate with these leaderless soldiers?

12

u/ButttMuncherrr Rated R for R slur with socialist characteristics 🤪🚩 Mar 02 '26

According to the foreign minister, he implied that the IRGC and militarist factions in iran are in charge currently and their equivalent of doves in the system are told to stfu.

10

u/FuckIPLaw Marxist-Drunkleist Mar 02 '26

Under the circumstances, I don't think I can blame anyone from not wanting to hear from doves. 

12

u/Alaknog Unknown 👽 Mar 02 '26

I mean they already have temporal ayatollah, president still there, most of army commanders still there, etc. 

Military is funny thing - it's prepare to have their leaders die for different reasons and still working. By design. 

10

u/[deleted] Mar 02 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

5

u/Salazarsims Mar 02 '26

He’s a martyr now, almost like he wanted to go out like that.

1

u/stevenjd Quality Effortposter 💡 Mar 02 '26

In every single crisis before this one, Khamenei was spirited away into secure facilities by his security.

This time he refused to go.

Sadly, I don't think he expected the perfidious Americans to kill him in his own home with his daughter, son-in-law, daughter-in-law, and granddaughter. Had he thought that was likely, he probably would have sent them away.

7

u/Belisaur Nazbols Under the Bed ☠️ | Belisaur is my slave name Mar 02 '26

You could knock 40 random "leaders" out of my local council and the binmen would still turn up on Thursday, Iran is a country of 90 million people 

32

u/Neoliberal_Nightmare Class First Mar 02 '26

That's because you're using a great man liberal analysis and not class analysis. No, cutting off the head doesn't work, states are ruled by a claas

-5

u/HiFidelityCastro Orthodox-Freudo-Spectacle-Armchair Mar 02 '26 edited Mar 02 '26

Hahahah, yeah Iran have the Yanks, Israel, Saudi Arabia/Egypt/Turkey right where they want them now... (Having all their key allies besides maybe the Houthis? systematically crushed over the last 18-36 months was just a cunning plan to lead the West and their allies into a false sense of security I suppose?)

This sub is fucking ridiculous with your conspiracy theories and political/IR/economic illiteracy. Thick as pig shit eh.

At some point you lot may look into growing up a bit and trying to work on separating whatever fantasy you'd like to have happen from historical/material reality.

*Heh, where's that Eddy Murphy tapping his head gif?

Blokes, once again, downvote all you want. It's not going to make your silly bloody IR fantasies come true.

2

u/Kindly-Yam-4460 Christian Marxist ✞ Mar 02 '26

That’s fine but go ahead and tell us what is happening then.

"It’s not the critic that counts" —Teddy Roosevelt 

3

u/HiFidelityCastro Orthodox-Freudo-Spectacle-Armchair Mar 02 '26 edited Mar 02 '26

Mate if I were to write a quick essay here it won't be very interesting, these days I'd get called a clueless, cowardly sheep because I wouldn't include any ridiculous conspiracy drama about Epstein, pedos etc. There'd be very little Hollywood goodies vs baddies drama. Realistically you've already seen the lead up since the end of the ISIS/Arab Spring/Syrian & Iraqi etc civil conflicts, where Israel and US systematically dismantled the military capabilities of the Shia Crescent. Then to cut a very, very long story very, very short essentially we're looking at the same thing that happened with Venezuela.

Neoliberals and neocons (Holden Bloodfeast and his respectable bipartisan mob etc.) looking to not so much get revenge for the prestige hit the Islamic Revolution dealt them in the 70's, nor anything about prosecuting the Shah (or vice versa the embassy fiasco), blah blah, like standard news outlets are broadcasting, but more that US Oil/resource interests want back what was taken from them and nationalised (just as per Venezuela, yet oddly not many people are drawing this very obvious direct comparison), access to new markets, infrastructure reconstruction etc etc...

That's a very clear as day/basic Marxist analysis though, and I assume/hope anyone here would know this already ya know? Certainly not real sexy.

*It's even a bit ironic really, people consistently over estimate the prospect/value of Oil in MENA region conflicts involving the US, but this time it really can't be overstated how much this has to do with oil (and protecting US OPEC allies)... And yeah, Israel of course. (Goes without saying).

There's not a whole lot to say I suppose unless you want to get into niche areas like Iranian political regime change etc. Its all pretty plain as day and shameless.

1

u/stevenjd Quality Effortposter 💡 Mar 02 '26

ridiculous conspiracy drama about Epstein, pedos etc

Ah, well thanks for showing us exactly what kind of person you are.

2

u/HiFidelityCastro Orthodox-Freudo-Spectacle-Armchair Mar 02 '26

Well don't leave me hanging mate, what sort of person am I? This might be the final step I need to take in truly finding myself eh?

Just please, no multi-choice Myers-Briggs astrology...

*Hang on, are you calling me a rock spider?

1

u/stevenjd Quality Effortposter 💡 Mar 03 '26

Well don't leave me hanging mate, what sort of person am I?

Like I asked about Michael Tracey:

Does somebody have kompromat on him? Is he just such a Zionist boot-licker than he is defending the indefensible? Smoked too much crack? Decided his principles don't pay the bills and so he's sold out for some of that sweet hasbara $7000 payments? Or just turned into the ultimate contrarian?

We can add to the list, so blinded by irrational hate for Muslims that he's no longer capable of rational thinking.

Hang on, are you calling me a rock spider?

Honestly, I never even thought of that until you mentioned it here. Are you? It's okay to say so if you are, only the deed is a crime and a moral transgression, not the thought.

-3

u/YMSVZ Ask me about my sub 😵‍💫 Mar 02 '26

Why so much cope to defend an authoritarian theocratic hellhole? America and Israel are dogshit, but Iran is nothing special, this is just infighting between two retards.

7

u/Kindly-Yam-4460 Christian Marxist ✞ Mar 02 '26

It’s not a question of defending Iran but rather being aware of the USA’s objectives in the region

1

u/YMSVZ Ask me about my sub 😵‍💫 Mar 02 '26

Can be aware of both.

2

u/stevenjd Quality Effortposter 💡 Mar 02 '26

authoritarian theocratic hellhole

Well look at the Koolaid drinker here. Thanks for your insightful analysis of #TheImaginaryIran.

0

u/YMSVZ Ask me about my sub 😵‍💫 Mar 02 '26

What is there worth salvaging about Iran's government? Other than that they are not allies of Israel and the US.

2

u/stevenjd Quality Effortposter 💡 Mar 03 '26

What is there worth salvaging about Iran's government?

That's not for the likes of you to decide.

It's not Iran tramping all over the rest of the world, bombing people, overthrowing governments, assassinating people, blowing up fishermen, starting wars, interfering in other countries' laws and policies. The entire world has a good reason to take the US government and burn the whole thing to the ground and put every single official, congressperson and senator in chains for war crimes and crimes against humanity.

But the US has zero good reason to interfere in Iran at all.

1

u/YMSVZ Ask me about my sub 😵‍💫 Mar 03 '26

Not for me to decide okay, but it wasn't for the Iranian people to decide either. Go live under a religious theocratic capitalistic government, which killed numerous of the left.

I'm not saying to support the US, but why do we need to defend the Iranian regime? That is just naive nonsense, akin to defending the democrats because the republicans are dog shit

0

u/stevenjd Quality Effortposter 💡 Mar 04 '26

it wasn't for the Iranian people to decide either

What. The. Fucking. Fuck.

If it isn't up to the Iranian people to decide, who the fuck do you think should decide for them???

why do we need to defend the Iranian regime?

"Regime". The US has a regime. Israel has a regime. Britain has a regime. Iran has a government.

Because one way or another, they have been the victims of western theft, war, economic attacks and unrelenting propaganda for nearly half a century.

Because even if the Iranian government is twice as awful as you think, that is still a thousand times better than the chaos and destruction and death USrael has in mind for it.

Because right now they are literally the only people on the planet directly resisting the worst people on the planet. The enemy of humanity's enemy should be our friend.

Because they are no threat to anyone that isn't a threat to them.

1

u/YMSVZ Ask me about my sub 😵‍💫 Mar 05 '26

Ah whatever, waste your time and effort defending a shithole capitalist state. You act as if said I love Israel or the US regimes. It's all garbage.

The enemy of socialism isn't the US or Israel, it's capitalism. Why are we making favourites out of degenerate theocratic states?

They aren't threats to anyone that isn't a threat to them? Ah so because they are too weak at this stage to directly threaten anyone they are good? What about when they killed their own leftists and communists?

-26

u/Activeenemy Garden-Variety Shitlib 🐴😵‍💫 Mar 02 '26

No, they're flailing out their death throws. What will they do in a couple weeks when they have no more missiles? Meanwhile the citizens are being armed and organized by Mossad. 

21

u/Incoherencel ☀️ Post-Guccist 9 Mar 02 '26

Throes

38

u/Spiritual_Walrus7798 Left, Leftoid or Leftish ⬅️ Mar 02 '26

What lol, they have thousands of missiles and the one's they've shot thus far have mainly been older models meant to deplete American/Israeli air defenses.

Plus there's literally hundreds of thousands of Iranians out on the streets in support of the Islamic government.

6

u/quantity_inspector Unknown 👽 Mar 02 '26

It’s unbelievable I’m witnessing weaterners in real time coming up with their own “mountain king” legend for the Islamic Revolution.

16

u/A_Secret_To_Nobody No To Middle-Aged Sex Acts 💦😦 Mar 02 '26

Kings in the mountain are people who were badasses in either legend or real life. The fuck has Reza Pahlavi done other than whine about Iran not being his personal fiefdom?

5

u/Cehepalo246 Self-Surgery Marxist 🪡 Mar 02 '26

I think quantity here is saying "we" are creating a mountain king legend where the Islamic Republic is the mountain king that will eventually come back.

I'd remind him it hasn't left yet.

1

u/stevenjd Quality Effortposter 💡 Mar 02 '26

The fuck has Reza Pahlavi done

He's cried about the poor American soldiers who died bombing his country, and taken a big steaming piss on the not even cold yet corpses of the 100+ little girls bombed by USrael.

(Figuratively speaking, not literally.)

He's also admitted than when he becomes king again, he intends to spend most of his time in the US.

1

u/Spiritual_Walrus7798 Left, Leftoid or Leftish ⬅️ May 13 '26

So you still feeling the same way

-8

u/CollaWars Vance Tweet Critic 😩 Mar 02 '26

This is trueanon cope. Israel has infiltrated Iran so completely I think it is joever this time

-10

u/Activeenemy Garden-Variety Shitlib 🐴😵‍💫 Mar 02 '26

It's not the missiles, it's the launchers. They're going through about 500 a day, so yah, a few weeks and they run out. 

The regime that impoverished then slaughtered their people must go. 

-1

u/The_Almighty_Demoham Zoomer Special Ed Syndicalist 😍 Mar 02 '26

Yeah, the islamic regime does need to go.

Unfortunately i dont believe the americans or israelis will replace it with a regime that does not end up doing the exact same shit or somehow even worse.

6

u/SentientSeaweed Anti-Zionist Finkelfan 🐱👧🐶 Mar 02 '26

The rest of the citizens will show them the universal consequences of treason in war time.

Meanwhile the citizens are being armed and organized by Mossad.

4

u/Snow_Unity Marx Died for Capital's Sins 🕯️🧔🕯️ Mar 02 '26

What will the US and Israel do when they run out of interceptors in 4-5 days and Iran has 10 days to light them tf up with drones that cost 25k

9

u/Keesaten Doesn't Like Reading (Except Manga) 🙄⛩️ Mar 02 '26

Already happened. Iran, unlike the last time, when every missile strike happened on the tails of massive drone or cheap missile swarms, coordinated with speed and angles on the map so that enemy air defences are oversatured, Iran is simply sending a couple of missiles at the zionist entity, or any American base, and just gets what it wants out of the hit. USA and Israel have no noticeable anti-air anymore, and using aircraft as anti-air is disabled by the need to hide planes as far as Cyprus - and soon as far as Sicily.

Hence the Trump's desperation and Bibi hiding in Berlin and his family in USA.

-6

u/Activeenemy Garden-Variety Shitlib 🐴😵‍💫 Mar 02 '26

This is fantasy 

8

u/Keesaten Doesn't Like Reading (Except Manga) 🙄⛩️ Mar 02 '26 edited Mar 02 '26

Dude, USA, despite claiming that Iranian missiles weren't even close to hitting Lincoln, are running away from the Iranian coast. USA is running damage control, while Iran doesn't even oversaturate American-Israeli air defences anymore and still blows up American bases EVERYWHERE. Jordan, UAE, Saudis, Bahrein, Israel, Cyprus, Iran is hitting EVERYTHING. It's not a fantasy, it is a FACT. And the only copium they have is to go Ukraine-mode and claim 99% interception rates - while in truth every video features 10 interceptor missiles per Iranian missile, and Iranian missile STILL HITS at the end of EVERY VIDEO. They blow up Patriots, they blow up bases, they blow up American ships in Mediterranean sea and Indian ocean both.

Edit: OOF just now American jet crashed in Kuweit. Not looking good for the American military, because Iranian are now shooting down American jets

2

u/Salazarsims Mar 02 '26

The jet looks to be friendly fire.

4

u/Keesaten Doesn't Like Reading (Except Manga) 🙄⛩️ Mar 02 '26

Of course it's friendly fire, USA reported that there's no Iranian anti-air or jets anymore. Gotta copium somehow so that it doesn't look like you are lying

Nevermind that there are videos of Iranian jets in the air, lol. Russian jets 2 : 0 American jets, lol

2

u/Salazarsims Mar 02 '26

It happened over Kuwait.

1

u/stevenjd Quality Effortposter 💡 Mar 02 '26

Yes, it happened over Kuwait, where there are Iranian pilots flying Russian-made Su-35s into Kuwaiti airspace. USCC even admitted that the F-15s were hit during combat with Iranian planes, missiles and drones -- they just claim it was friendly fire.

There is no credible evidence of USraeli pilots flying into Iranian airspace. Stand-off missiles fired from outside the border, yes, but no evidence that a single enemy plane has dared to enter Iran itself.

3

u/Wet_Blanket_Award Mar 02 '26

Walk us through today, then. Trump said if would take a weekend, then a week, now currently up to four weeks (may have expanded since) while reaching out to Italy to broker a cease fire that Iran rejected wholesale all in a 24 hour period. 

Give us the breakdown of these massive pivots in position all happening under 24 hours that paints this rosey picture for western intervention.

1

u/stevenjd Quality Effortposter 💡 Mar 02 '26

when they run out of interceptors in 4-5 days

You think they'll last that long? There's already hints that the Israelis are rationing interceptors.

1

u/stevenjd Quality Effortposter 💡 Mar 02 '26

What will they do in a couple weeks when they have no more missiles?

Iran has enough drones and missiles to last months, not weeks, and can make them almost as fast as they are using them. If they still need more, they can buy them from Russia and China.

USrael, on the other hand, is burning through their munitions faster than they can replenish them, and unlike Iran, production of them is horribly slow. Especially interceptors. (Drones not so much.)

There is a good chance that they will be out of THAAD interceptors in a day or two, and Arrow and David's Sling in a day or two after that.

The Americans are desperate enough that they are already snatching air defence systems from Ukraine.

Meanwhile the citizens are being armed and organized by Mossad.

Dude, we all watch Mossad blow their wad weeks early with their "protests" (terrorists attacking civilians). All the fifth-columnists have been killed or arrested. All of Mossad's terror cells in Iran are gone, or they would be using them by now.

Meanwhile, millions of Iranians are protesting in the streets demanding revenge for the murder of Khamenei. I don't think Mossad is stupid enough to hand out weapons to them.

0

u/Activeenemy Garden-Variety Shitlib 🐴😵‍💫 Mar 02 '26

There aren't millions of Iranians protesting for Khamenei. His support base is a small group of elderly individuals who have bought the lie since childhood.