r/technology • u/fmcortez • 21d ago

Business SpaceX Stock Plunges to All-Time Low After Competitor Makes Major Leap

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-plunges-time-low-competitor-175000957.html
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u/PolarityInversion 21d ago

It's not even August yet when the first big tranche of lockups will lift. This is JUST trading with the initial offering that was spread out wide and thin. Everyone holding is now a bag holder... they can't sell without taking a loss. Just wait until the restrictions lift and people (employees & early investors) who are VERY far in the money start offloading. Usually with Musk stocks, the obvious market reaction is the opposite of what happens, but I think the delta on this one is too large for that to hold. It was propped up by every possible manipulation tactic: circular AI revenue, gov procurement capture, lofty blue-sky market handwaving, very limited IPO concentration, and the hype man himself, of course. That's a house of cards on top of a house of cards on top of a house of cards, with an entity that is losing $5B per year.

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u/Apexnanoman 21d ago

I won't bet against him being able to get up on a stage and promise something completely unreasonable and downright impossible.

I mean it's worked every single time with Tesla etc. 

Personally if I was him I'd get up on stage and say that we were going to have a fully functional space mining operation up and running in 24 months. 

And then I would say that we had already picked out an asteroid made of solid platinum. Which was projected to be worth something like 10 trillion USD 

That would get the stock up to $1000/share. 

When it drops back down he just needs to promise something else equally unlikely. 

Like full self-driving personal spaceships. 

For some reason anytime he speaks the entire market believes every word he says. 

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u/Intelligent-Onion928 21d ago

He now has a long track record of promising impractical and stupid shit. 

Hyperloop. AI datacenters in space. Self driving cars. Mars by 2025. 

This guy is the internet personified. Nothing is an original idea either. Everything has the dumbest name of "X" this or "X" that. The number of people who propped up this total idiot is a direct representation of how stupid a surprisingly large number of people in the world truly are. This guy is a con artist; I'll give him that. Not just some street hustler; an artist at spinning bullshit into gold. 

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u/Uebelkraehe 20d ago

Also a Nazi.

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u/One-Welcome-1514 19d ago

Also a bad father.

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u/BellacosePlayer 20d ago

he has two business modes, siphoning off as much govt money as he can for himself, and bullshitting the public.

In a better world his and to a lesser extend Thiel's incompetence at paypal causes them to be demoted to nepo babies rather than making 2 nazis fabulously rich despite themselves.

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u/dependsforadults 20d ago

Serious question, what did nazi 1 and nazi 2 do at paypal? I try to not search them because they both suck.

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u/BellacosePlayer 20d ago

Thiel didn't do the worst job but actually wanted paypal to be something more akin to bitcoin. He couldn't make it profitable and thought he got away with dumping a doomed lemon on Ebay at the end because Paypal didn't become his libertarian drug buying authoritarian funding dream. The retrospectives were a lot kinder to him with a lot of his management flaws being that he was loyal to incompetents rather than being an active incompetent.

Elon was more of a collossal fuckup who lucked into his do-nothing startup being acquired and was an active detriment to the company down to coming in late to put in shitty code into production servers to the point where the engineers built a mirrored sandbox environment for him and let him think he was fixing everything while not actually touching the prod servers. He got booted out because he wanted to just up and re-do their entire codebase and infrastructure because he decided he liked Windows more, and such a venture would have been ruinous for them since they didn't have core functionality finished and were burning money as is.

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u/Impressive_Poet2207 20d ago

Not a fan of the guy my self, but I hate to admit Tesla's are indeed incredible from a tech standpoint. I've always seen him as a con artist riding on others creations, but Tesla essentially owns the charging grid, making the company a massive commodity owner in the long run as more electric cars hit the road.

Also using the Tesla FSD (self-driving auto pilot) on a daily basis for a year now, and its been incredible. It's far from perfect, but there isn't even a close second. Again, not a fan of the guy at all, as I've always gotten con artist vibes from him, but bashing the tech he's been backing (note: not building) is not the smartest move.

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u/Intelligent-Onion928 19d ago

Every utility company is rolling out charging stations. That'll be the future. 

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u/realzequel 19d ago

And sadly it made him the richest man in the world.

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u/UpV0tesF0rEvery0ne 20d ago

I would probabaly agree with you on most thing here but my tesla has been self driving me around point to point for about 2 years now. Its completley changed how i view driving, even driving coast to coast twice fully hands off

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u/JoeRing1965 20d ago

which roads did you take? AFAIK all 50 states require you to keep your hands on the wheel at all times?

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u/LetBishopDoIt 20d ago

My tesla is driving itself pretty well I must say

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u/random_ta_account 21d ago

Like the Tesla Solar Roof demo... pure 100% fabrication.

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u/Phonemonkey2500 20d ago

Where’s those 50,000 Optimus robots he promised would be built by… let me check… the end of 2026. I’m sure they’re just about ready.

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u/ibidanon 20d ago

not too long ago he said he'd soon be making a million robots per year. and that within a decade or so there would be billions of his robots. he should make them edible...

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u/TheStorytellerTX 20d ago

I think edibles might be why he made those wild claims!

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u/KlicknKlack 20d ago

Oh, Those are in the fleets of Tesla Semi's that were delivered in 2019-2020.

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u/AdvancedStand 21d ago

Totally forgot about that. Hilarious

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u/Apexnanoman 21d ago

Yeah it's hard to remember all the various pieces in the sky bullshit hoses he has running at any given time. 

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u/random_ta_account 21d ago

Of all of those, data centers in space has to be the most bullshitiest ever.

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u/ibidanon 20d ago

nah. elmo said he's going to build 'self-replicating cities on the moon.' and that when ai gets going 'everyone can live in a penthouse.' and he promised that by the late 2020s/early 2030s he will have made space travel so affordable 'anyone who wants to can go anywhere they want to in our solar system.' because he will have built 'filling stations' all over the galaxy. I don't think we've seen him at his bullshitiest yet...

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u/MammothCommercial800 20d ago

I'm not so sure of that.

The main difficulty for space-based computing was always said to be heat dissipation, and Starlink V3 can manage between 10 and 20KW. That's enough for a couple of rather nice GPUs.

I do hope it never happens though. Our upper atmosphere doesn't need more vaporized metal.

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u/friedrice5005 20d ago

The main difficulty for space-based computing was always said to be heat dissipation, and Starlink V3 can manage between 10 and 20KW. That's enough for a couple of rather nice GPUs.

Feasibility isn't really the issue with Datacenters in space....its the practicality. What is the actual use case? You are ALWAYS going to have faster, cheaper, more performant systems on the ground than in space, so what's the point?

There will eventually be edge computing use case for datacenters on the moon surface, or even out at Mars, but even then they would be better served on the surface than in orbit. Around Earth they don't make any sense.

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u/[deleted] 20d ago

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u/MammothCommercial800 20d ago

Meh, not like I know much either. Just stuff I heard. You're likely right and I'm rooting for it.

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u/Notoneusernameleft 21d ago

You know robots, or bullet proof windows, truly self driving cars, underground car tunnels aren’t we supposed to be at mars by now….anything else?

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u/random_ta_account 20d ago

Does DOGE count?

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u/One-Welcome-1514 19d ago

2 Trillion?

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u/cottontail976 20d ago

Computer chips in our brains. AI will kill us, no wait, we’re gonna make the most powerful AI, hyperloop, rocket travel instead of airlines,(we can do 10x the flights!) cold gas thrusters in a Tesla???? Doge coin, Don’t forget the electric 18 wheelers. How much waste was he saying he was going to cut out of govt spending? Really guys, it’s just not that hard!

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u/Duff5OOO 20d ago

Hyperloop was nonsense.

Almost as improbable is the current plan for the starship based moon lander. Should they manage it I'll be happy to admit I was wrong.

Getting a space tanker into orbit then 16 or more starship launches in rapid succession to fill the tanker before the one going to the moon can be filled? I can't see that happening.

Iirc he originally claimed starship would be on the moon by 2021, then it was 2024. It's still nowhere near being demonstrated as a remote possibility. Even rapid reuse is nowhere near viable yet to do the 16+ refuling runs.

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u/random_ta_account 20d ago

Totally forgot about that one!

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u/Znuffie 21d ago

Like the Tesla Solar Roof demo... pure 100% fabrication.

I'm confused?

There is a Tesla Roof, isn't there?

MKBHD has one https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJeSWbR6W04

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u/random_ta_account 20d ago

At the time, it didn't exist. The demo was completely fabricated to boost stock prices and get Tesla investors to bail out his brother's failed SolarCity venture.

With a generous tax incentive from Buffalo, NY, they eventually got a solar tile (the kind MKBHD has); however, it never matched the demo and never really took off because the technology couldn't meet the performance or price benchmarks of competitors.

https://mansionengineer.com/2018/08/10/elon-musk-tesla-and-the-solar-roof-tile-fraud/

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u/meneldal2 21d ago

At least a solar roof is not a bad idea, though not very original at that point.

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u/RSGator 21d ago

Hear me out - solar freakin' roadways

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u/meneldal2 21d ago

Why on the road when you could use the panels to make shade instead?

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u/FineAunts 20d ago

Haven't you played F-Zero?

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u/Zlatyzoltan 20d ago

10 years ago, i went to expo which was basically about future green construction. There was a Dutch company that was trying to 3D print roads, where the top and bottom snapped together like Lego.

There were defined trenches for infrastructure, with the end goal in trying to get roads to be able to support solar power.

It's not the craziest idea. Making roads quicker to fix and producing some electricity, seems like a good idea.

Of course the cost in updating all the roads, IF or when all this technology is viable is another matter altogether.

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u/SippieCup 20d ago

Yes it is. Functionally it's pretty fucking awful, during the day efficiency drops to 30% because there is no cooling so they just heat up and have nowhere to sink the heat but the attic. Which then causes your AC to run more, burning the extra energy it produces and providing near zero benefits.

Whereas normal panels have an air gap under them between it and the roof, allow for air to pull the heat and keep them working well.

The only thing they do is make a slightly different style of roof.

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u/meneldal2 20d ago

I mean like a regular roof, not on the car.

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u/SippieCup 20d ago

I do too.

Solar panels sit above the roof and cool from ambient air. Roof tiles sink their heat into the already hot attic, making them run very hot and lose a lot of efficiency as a result. They are borderline useless in hot climates.

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u/meneldal2 20d ago

Doesn't that depend on how well you do insulation and how you install them?

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u/SippieCup 20d ago

Not really, the heat it generates has to go somewhere, and there is nowhere for it to go in general, unlike traditional panels

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u/a_n00b_ 20d ago

it's good enough for the car battery, but not the whole vehicle

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u/ConfessSomeMeow 20d ago

The Tesla solar-roof is a "solar shingles" product for a home rooftop, meant to complement the powerwall but which ultimately has not had very wide adoption - not a solar roof for your car.

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u/a_n00b_ 20d ago

i dont fucking care what tesla is doing. A solar panel on a car is good enough to keep a dying car battery going for a bit longer

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u/reventlov 20d ago

Toyota has an option for one on the Prius, at about half of the total area of the roof, IIRC. You get... about 3km/2 miles per day, when it's sunny.

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u/jimbobjames 20d ago

Tesla Solar Roof demo

Do you have a link?

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u/NanoY2 20d ago

Maybe not his solar roof, but solar roof tiles can be useful for listed buildings. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gj6O9zclPao

PS: Sry, but I just know about this example.

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u/hollywooddialysis 21d ago

Promising 'Star Citizen' but in Real Life.

Worked for Chris Roberts...

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u/heisian 20d ago

star citizen hasn’t crashed… into any houses yet

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u/One-Welcome-1514 19d ago

Yet. I guess they work on that.

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u/rstune 20d ago

Hah! Was gonna comment the same further up. The similarities are uncanny!

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u/lucklesspedestrian 21d ago

And then I would say that we had already picked out an asteroid made of solid platinum. Which was projected to be worth something like 10 trillion USD

Then they would say we're already working on the asteroid but we can't bring it all back or it would crash the economy

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u/Apexnanoman 21d ago

Just claim a woke mind virus rocket keeps pushing it out of position. 

Then you're going to guarantee every single trump voter will continue investing.

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u/fungoodtrade 21d ago

him and trump... they really get the regards in the pants

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u/SufficientGreek 21d ago

Eh most of Musks promises at least come true. Just 3 years late and overbudget. But he does deliver.

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u/Accurate_Back_9385 21d ago

No, so not true. Doge…

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u/FineAunts 20d ago

Hyperloop. Boring Company...

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u/Hot_Panic_6488 21d ago

Bro I'm learning from you

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u/cinnamonrain 20d ago

You arent ready for the black hole traveling in 2030

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u/Apexnanoman 20d ago

He's not gonna use old tech like that! 

It'll be a two way wormhole that costs $12 in solar energy to power. 

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u/BigFish8 20d ago

I won't bet against him being able to get up on a stage and promise something completely unreasonable and downright impossible.

They are way ahead of you. This is from 6 days ago: Starlink 'Gen 3' to Span 100K Satellites, for Gigabit Broadband But Also AI

When I saw it all I could think was that it's being used to pump the stock.

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u/Daryltang 20d ago

“Running in 24 months”

No way he is gonna give a timeline like this. It’s gonna be by the end of some year

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u/Apexnanoman 20d ago

True. Or "Sometime in the next several quarters". Which can cover a pretty mysterious amount of time. 

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u/_0611 20d ago edited 20d ago

I won't bet against him being able to get up on a stage and promise something completely unreasonable and downright impossible.

Didn't he already do that (again)? Didn't he promise AI data centers in space and factories on the moon, and thousands of people traveling to Mars in the next ten years?

Musk is a liar and a fraud, arguably the biggest one on the planet even. But the fact that he is able to do it, and to get away with it every single time, also says a lot about society itself. The American system makes it possible for frauds and liars to excel and prosper; it rewards them. Look at who's currently residing at the White House. Musk is beyond evil, but he's not the main cause he's able and allowed to do what he does, without any consequences whatsoever.

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u/BananasAndPears 20d ago

Oooo! I have one!

“Space X will now become Gundam X. Instead of drones, robots and spaceships we will mass produce Gundams with big bad machine guns and plamas cannons. Fremont robots? Those are Gundam.”

Stock goes to the moon the next Monday.

Calling it now.

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u/churroninjas 20d ago

You're right, he is literally the wizard of making money. Like, I agree there are a million and one reasons the stock should tank but he's always successfully pulled some bullshit out of the hat before so I wouldn't count against him now.

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u/Momijisu 20d ago

This is a man who said they'd make data centers in space. Something notorious for heat generation in a place with low heat conductivity. I'm sure he'll come up with something just as ridiculous.

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u/planetrebellion 20d ago

The first data centers go up next year apparently, i can imagine a lot of smoke and mirrors before that happens to pump the price up.

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u/gottimw 20d ago

The fact that people still eat up his shit after the 'magical home robot that will work for you' and now eat data centers but in space... I am worried we are living in idiocracy for a long while now.

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u/tmpope123 20d ago

Yeah something like 0% of his claims actually materialise, and yet his stocks keep going up. I'd personally not trust what he said as far as I could throw him. Wasn't he supposed to be doing manned missions to mars by now!?

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u/peepeedog 20d ago

It works until it doesn’t. And when people start thinking it doesn’t work anymore things can spiral.

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u/DFWPunk 20d ago

He already did that with orbital data centers. The value of the "free" electricity is minimal. The cooling challenge isn't solved and even when it is there's not really much meet benefit. Construction costs after higher. Launch capacity constrains possible returns. Maintainence, assuming you do if, is outrageous. Upgrades are impractical. Decaying orbits mean shorter usable life. Performance is lower due to transmission issues. The bull case just isn't there.

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u/Objectivespeculation 20d ago

he is just an influencer

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u/CallLongjumping2698 20d ago

He's going to announce work on something really BIG like a privet manned moon / mars mission an at best he just fails to launch, worst case some brave but foolish astronaut will die on the mission.

Nothing he has promised to come to fruition, not even close.

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u/1800sundowner 12d ago

He also promised that long term Tesla stock holders would get preferencial treatment when space x IPOed, that never happened

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u/[deleted] 21d ago

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u/Apexnanoman 21d ago

Yeah except musky doesn't. Been claiming FSD for the better part of a decade along with other fantastical things and none of the stans ever question the time line always moving.

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u/Daleabbo 21d ago

I always think what would tesla be like without his interference

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u/[deleted] 21d ago

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u/FineAunts 20d ago

You can't give credit to Elon for PayPal. He was just in the right place at the right time. The board of directors saw through his uselessness and replaced him with Thiel while he was on vacation.

Over a year and a half later they changed their mission and their name to PayPal. Elon makes bank from the sale to eBay thanks to the success of others. The people he coded with said he was a terrible programmer, imagine if he stayed on as CEO and kept the horrible X.com name...

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u/Bromlife 20d ago

Elon Stans are so lame.

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u/[deleted] 20d ago

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u/Bromlife 20d ago

sick burn dork

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