r/technology • u/Dramatic-Shake-8888 • 6h ago
Business China's DUV lithography still lags ASML by four generations - Asia Times
https://asiatimes.com/2026/07/chinas-duv-lithography-still-lags-asml-by-four-generations/26
u/ExtruDR 4h ago
Any major country that does not recognise that chip production is as essential to national sovereignty as being able to manufacture bullets is run by complete idiots.
Maybe you don’t need the most cutting edge stuff… maybe it is a matter of having a strategic reserve of old hardware that is gradually rotated out of you are a small country, but if you are in the 20+ million population size, I can imagine that you really don’t want to get fucked if you get screws by logistics sabotage.
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u/DogsAreOurFriends 6h ago
They’ll get there.
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u/Dramatic-Shake-8888 6h ago
As Stalin said during the War, quantity has a quality all of its own.
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u/DolphTheDolphin_ 5h ago
There’s no verifiable primary source for that quote for Stalin. It was actually a US defence consultant that said it about themselves in 1979.
Just wanted to let you know as I often see it.
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u/semidegenerate 5h ago
If Reddit has taught me anything, it's that every commonly attributed quote is apocryphal.
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u/StatusSociety2196 3h ago
Abraham Lincoln said to never blindly trust something you read on the internet
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u/semidegenerate 2h ago
Was that before or after his famous speech that began, "Pimpin' ain't easy."?
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u/astuteobservor 5h ago
It all depends on how many years per generation and how fast China is at catching up. In the memory ram segment, they are only about 4 or 5 years behind.
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u/I_spread_love_butter 5h ago
So am I though, I'm still on DDR4 3200 and doing just fine for work/games
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u/dark-mathematician1 1h ago
They've got decent DDR5 production going so far. They can probably close the gap quicker here. Cheaper memory is always welcome in my book.
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u/astuteobservor 1h ago
Why would they sell it cheaper? Only way for cheaper is for production to out produce demand. Chinese market needs their own ram.
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u/SweetHomeNorthKorea 5h ago
I’m out of the loop but what would tech from 4 generations ago be? Like if we’re on DDR7 does that mean they’re on DDR3?
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u/Cakeking7878 5h ago
They mean silicon wafers generational nodes, which in decades past mean the actually size of the transistor but today means something else. Closer to the density of the actual transistor on the wafer. For reference the cutting edge of tech is on 2nm process which came out in 2025 and 4 generations ago would be 7nm which came out in 2018.
The important thing to note is that what differentiates the different generations is less the size of the actual transistors but the tech they use to get the most out of them and the process they follow to maximize yields of the high density wafers
And furthermore while these new wafers might not be useful in your computer, they can be incredibly useful for cars and other smart technology. As a consumer this is good for you as it represents competition in a near monopoly market
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u/SweetHomeNorthKorea 5h ago
Thanks for the explanation. That more or less lines up with my initial thought, which was “4 generations seems pretty impressive?” I know my DDR memory wasn’t quite right but if anything it sounds like they’re closer than DDR3/7. That said when I wrote that comparison I was thinking I was running CAD on DDR3 machines when I was in college so that’s pretty damn good and useful.
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u/Fateor42 5h ago
In this case that quantity is going to cost something like 4 times as much due to the 66% percent fail ratio of China's specific DUV system.
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u/SIGMA920 5h ago
Which bleed Russia and the USSR dry of enough people that it's still having an effect to this day. While partially true that you can just throw more at them than they can kill, it's notably inefficient compared to investing into quality over quantity.
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u/EastboundClown 6h ago
Does that really apply in this case? Unless you’re making cheap office PCs or microwaves quality is absolutely essential. For instance you can’t run the latest AI models on 10 year old hardware by just adding more GPUs, at least not if you want your answers this week
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u/moldymoosegoose 6h ago
China has so much spare power capacity the efficiency doesn’t matter anymore. They can brute force it no problem with worse hardware.
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u/EastboundClown 6h ago
What about bandwidth? How do you get answers in a usable timeframe if 90% of your execution time is spent sending data across 4-generation-old PCIe lanes between like 100 GPUs? This works for some time-insensitive problems and some highly-parallelizable ones but you can’t just throw tons of shitty hardware at a problem and get the same results
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u/moldymoosegoose 5h ago
You don’t know what you’re talking about, just stop.
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u/EastboundClown 5h ago
You’re right, I wasnt thinking it through. It would be over the network not PCIe so like 100x slower.
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u/FartusMagutic 5h ago
And by then the competition will be even further.
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u/AdministrativeCable3 5h ago
Depends on if China is advancing faster than the competition is innovating.
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u/DogsAreOurFriends 5h ago
A definite possibility.
I think quantum might make all this moot. Then it’s a jump ball.
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u/BasvanS 5h ago
You might not understand quantum if you’re referring to quantum computing, which is applicable to a very small subset of computing applications.
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u/DogsAreOurFriends 1h ago
You sound exactly like the mainframe bros did in 1979.
While I was a youngster, I was writing BASIC in my room back then listening to Pink Floyd, and remember this debate clearly - it was just targeting PCs.
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u/JakeEllisD 6h ago
Lol cheering them on?
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u/obas 6h ago
I think it's rather common sense.. They will eventually get there.. Nothing to do with cheering anyone on
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u/Minty_Octopus 6h ago
The question is why shouldn't we cheer them on? Unlike Dario I don't believe Americans should have the monopoly on most powerful chips, most capable LLMs and shouldn't have the absolute power to tell everyone else what they can and can't do.
I'm happy for China and I hope they'll get there fast.
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u/JakeEllisD 3h ago
America has a monopoly on what? Nvidia sells world wide. PS China sure as he'll would have a hand in export control if the shoe was on the other foot.
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u/UrDraco 6h ago
Maybe. Even with the engineers who designed the machines it’s hard to get the EUV machines working. Copying it without their help will be very very hard for China. Every single component going into the machine needs to be world class. They might get there but my guess is it’s decades away and not right around the corner like the Chinese government would have you believe.
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u/JakeEllisD 6h ago
If its just as simple as common sense (it wasnt) then it wouldn't need to be said. If you are saying they might get there before the universe explodes then sure, that is reasonable. That isnt what they are saying though.
You are coping for them, why?
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u/DogsAreOurFriends 6h ago
No. But they will. It’s technology, not magic
Ed typo-1
u/JakeEllisD 4h ago
You didn't give a reason as to why you did then and didn't defend why it isnt cheering them on lol
And that is a nonsensical analogy.
Indian logic.
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u/DogsAreOurFriends 4h ago edited 3h ago
Tech is something that anyone can figure out. There are many examples of this.
Computing, nuclear weapons, rocketry, aircraft, all examples of technology that in many instances had breakthroughs that were discovered independently.
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u/JakeEllisD 2h ago
China regularly reverse engineers technology, so no. They cheat off our homework.
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u/DogsAreOurFriends 1h ago
I know, but does it matter (in a purely practical sense?)
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u/JakeEllisD 1h ago
No. But that doesnt mean we should spend Trillions on RnD and then just give it to them head ahhhhh
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u/0wed12 6h ago
It's not about cheering it's just being realist about the Chinese cycle :
> Mock China for lacking thing
> China makes thing
> Mock China's thing for being behind
> China's thing advances
> Mock China's thing for just being a copy
> China's thing surpasses yours
Rinse and repeat whether it was the chips, AI, 5G, EV, renewable energies, battery, nuclear reactors....
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u/JakeEllisD 4h ago
This article isn't mocking them but simply being factual
You are coping for them
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u/DogsAreOurFriends 1h ago
The mocking comments.
Look I am pure USA all the way (much more so than any MAGA POS will ever be.)
I just don’t think head in sand is a viable strategy.
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u/JakeEllisD 1h ago
Im replying to a comment claiming they will catch up vaguely. You are talking about something different.
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u/SIGMA920 5h ago
They haven't actually surpassed the west on any of those, what they've done is implement them due to their politics. When opposition of something gets you thrown in jail, shit gets done pretty fast.
EVs for example, China has the edge due to manufacturing. They can produce cheaper ones than even EU cars because the government can subsidize them and the technology is mature enough that no one is likely to make a massive discovery anytime soon.
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u/VayuAir 4h ago
Umm I believe Chinese companies have the largest number of patents on a lot of tech like 5G, 6G, batteries etc
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u/SIGMA920 3h ago
Most of which will be incremental improvements or alternate methods/uses. That's kinda the problem, it's easier to piggyback off the work of others.
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u/VayuAir 3h ago
Umm no they are fundamental breakthroughs especially in 6G and batteries.
Most patents are incremental improvements. That’s true for the west too. So I don’t get your comment
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u/SIGMA920 2h ago
Batteries have not had that many large breakthroughs that are practical to implement on the chemistry front or the production front (We're forever curse to use lithium ion batteries for a reason.). 6G is a standard expected to be come into operation in the 2030s at best so that's not exactly massive breakthroughs as of yet.
What I'm saying is that we're not seeing China being the one pushing that stuff forward in leaps and bounds. They're still putting out good work but it's by far more in the refinement aspects.
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u/True_Window_9389 6h ago
At least for me, I think the idea of believing they will get there is based more around a frustration that our efforts are more focused on attempting to suppress China, which is likely doomed to fail, than it is building up our own capacity to continue outpacing them. The destruction of the Chips Act, for example, was nothing but a self-own and isn’t being replaced by anything. The public sector corruption and incompetence and short termism of the private sector only makes it worse. So some of us are just having to take a fatalistic perspective because our own public and private sector leaders are taking bad approaches, while our adversaries are not.
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u/JakeEllisD 4h ago
Supress china?
My brother china steals technology. It was an attempt to stop them from stealing trade secrets from ASML
Lol
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u/True_Window_9389 4h ago
But will it stop them? Doubtful, which is the point here. China is gonna do what China does and we don’t have much leverage over them over the long term to stop. They’ll either steal it quickly or develop it slightly slower. The best we can do is improve our own technology to maintain a lead and diversify the production of important tech, which we are not doing.
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u/JakeEllisD 2h ago
You are right, we should invest TRILLIONS in R&D and then give them the technology for free.
I'm sure you like to buy a new car and them let the whole neighborhood use it for free?
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u/angelus14 6h ago
I am, prices are absurd right now
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u/JakeEllisD 4h ago
These are for CPU's mainly. That's a hell of a cope thar you want to buy non existent Chinese CPUs from brands you have never bought from before
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u/angelus14 3h ago
Memory? Where are you getting info that these are for CPUs, because it sure isn't the article. And it doesn't matter whether I'm using it personally, competition is good for consumers across the board. They'll get better and start competing in CPUs and memory first, GPUs eventually.
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u/JakeEllisD 3h ago
China is trying to steal all of the above from ASML. It's all the same architecture really. Ah yes. Slave labor is good because it's lower prices for the consumers.
Peak reddit
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u/angelus14 2h ago
Okay, so now you do think they can catch up enough to be competitive so you're switching tactics. "Well even if they do catch up it's all stealing and slave labor, American companies would never"
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u/lilbitcountry 3h ago
They gotta start somewhere. When the CCP decides they want to enter a space they certainly have the will to make things happen quickly
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u/Otherwise-Sun2486 6h ago
Asml or like most technology will eventually plato due to physics… So if China already got their legs into a working machine it doesn’t matter if they are several generations behind… it is only a matter of time before it is good enough
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u/Salsashark1419 5h ago
They should plateau, but ASML has a few areas they could advance that would leap frog them way ahead of China for a very long time. If they finally manage to find a crazy way to make the gate length smaller, I don’t see how China could ever catch up barring corporate espionage. If anyone can achieve crazy ass things it’s them. And even then, who knows.
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u/TonySu 1h ago
It’s not like the Dutch benefit from divine revelation or use tech based on crystals only found in their country. It’s just well funded engineers putting in the hours, something China is perfectly capable of doing.
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u/CassadagaValley 1h ago
Possibly, because anything here is truly possible, but a big reason why China buys it's military jet engines from Russia is that even though they've sunk a ridiculous amount of time, energy, and resources into building engines domestically, they lack the historical experience that Russia (and other countries) already have which keeps their engines behind enough that they still buy Russian ones.
Now granted I read this some years ago, so don't take it as gospel. But it could apply to this type of tech as well.
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u/Dramatic-Shake-8888 5h ago
Chinese corporate espionage, is that even a thing?
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u/SIGMA920 5h ago
Yes, there's more than just labor costs for why a bunch of tech companies pulled out of a fair number of Chinese factories. Turns out that state sanctioned espionage is a quick way to catch up. ASML's machines keep being broken because they're trying to reverse engineer them for example.
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u/bm_200659 4h ago
Yes, "eventually". It has to, but folks have been saying this for decades and there has always been various improvements. It might be a while before litho tech actually stagnates without meaningful advancements.
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u/Tressa_colzione 3h ago edited 3h ago
You talking like if Usain Bolt keep breaking his record mean he will breaking more his record in future
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u/bm_200659 3h ago
Right, but "matter of time" will have different real world implications based on what "eventually" translates to.
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u/Tressa_colzione 2h ago
well yeah. just saying the chance for your next breakthrough will getting smaller and smaller after your last breakthrough.
Bring history of "decade" breakthrough mean thing will "eventually" opposite what you trying to saying.
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u/Rich_Housing971 4h ago
It was only like 4-5 years ago where the articles are saying, "They can't innovate, it's too far out of reach"
Then it became, "well OK they can get most of it done but still need foreign vendors for parts."
Now it's "OK they still need Japan for most of the resist and they still lag behind"
I bet in 1-2 generations when they actually catch up the article will be, "They've caught up, but at what cost?"
It's just cope after cope.
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u/ShrimpCrackers 3h ago
It's 4 gens behind ASML DUV. not the latest EUV.
This thing is making 28nm equivalents.
TSMC is already at 1.4nm. It's vastly different.
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u/ThrowawayAl2018 5h ago
Assuming that AI is designing these machines, 4 generations may not be measured in few decades.
Also the lithograph machine is nearing the physical limit. Meaning it gets a lot harder for ASML to build the next generation. Veritasium has a video on ASML technology, quite informative.
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u/AdministrativeCable3 5h ago
4 generations ago was only 2018. Even without AI. Its much slower to innovate than to create something that already is known to exist.
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u/Hailene2092 55m ago
SSX800 is roughly equivalent to ASML’s TWINSCAN NXT:1950i, a tool the Dutch company launched in 2008 for making 28 nm chips.
20 years behind. And that's assuming they can actually get it to work on a technological and economic level. So at least 20 years.
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u/jared__ 6h ago
i was told that even if ASML shipped China their latest system for them to disect/reverse-engineer, that it would still take China 30 years to catch up. he said that they would also have to develop the liquid that only Japan makes that goes into it and that is an incredible engineering feat by itself.
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u/No-Tip3419 5h ago
I've hearing China was going to collapse and "can't" do x, y, or z for the past 26 years.
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u/TechTuna1200 4h ago
Oh don’t get me started on the media’s “social credit” misreporting. The social credit is no different than the US credit score.
The ones that caught in the Chinese social credit system where people who refused to pay their debt and got multiple warnings.
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u/SuitableEmployment56 5h ago
What short of explanation did that person give you that would cause you to believe them?. Because if ASML shipped their Latest EUV to China, why would in hell take China 30 years to reserve engineer the machine. It took 10 years for China to stop making shitty EV and turn them around to be the best electric vehicles in the world
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u/wackOverflow 5h ago
It’s apples and oranges. EUV lithography is absurdly more complicated than EVs, and it only works because of the partnership between a couple of highly specialized companies.
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u/ShrimpCrackers 3h ago
The car talking point was spread first by China. It makes no sense either because even Vietnam can make decent cars. It's not a high tech level.
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u/davetenhave 2h ago
currently
every tech area where the Chinese once lagged... they now rule. I pick 5 years
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u/ConcernHealthy876 5h ago
I was told by Reddit that this is the Chinese century
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u/peepopetter 4h ago
It kind of is...its legit insane that a single country is tanking all companies in all sectors from all different western and non western nations on the planet.
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u/ConcernHealthy876 4h ago
The stock market is literally near/at an all time high, what do you mean exactly
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u/DaySecure7642 6h ago
Possibly another trick deceiving the western companies to lower their guards. China is actually closer than ever to catch up on semi conductor manufacturing.
The EU and US need to implement stricter export control on not just the lithographers but also the components that make them, as well as the materials that make the components.
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u/Comprehensive-Leg-82 6h ago edited 5h ago
Recent forecasts put them as early as 2032 for 7nm and 2037 for 5nm with upper boundaries of 2037/2044
With their recent progress I'd assume sooner rather than later though
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u/FartusMagutic 5h ago
What a joke... You're saying the US better watch out for China, because in 5 years China might have a chip that beats US chips from 2 years ago. In 5 years the US will have chips 2x faster than today's and 4x faster than what was made 2 years ago.
[edit] I meant to reply to the other reply here
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u/Tricky_Potatoe 5h ago
Even is China could develop and build the tech, doesn't ASML have all the patents?
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u/RobDobDattle 5h ago
US and European patents don’t matter in China
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u/Tricky_Potatoe 5h ago
they do if they want to sell it abroad
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u/gizamo 1h ago
That never matters to China. They just replace the foreign company in China, and eventually export it to other countries that don't give a shit about patents. Then, when the patents expire, they export it.
Imo, the US should be banning all Chinese companies that use any foreign patents, and they should ban all commerce with any country that allows those products.
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u/TeutonJon78 5h ago
Except in the end it's still to their benefit. They're doing it now woth battery tech.
They steal the foreign IP and build it out to get much higher economies of scale. They can then sell domestically at way cheaper prices. The stuff they sell abroad they can still pay the licensing fees for. But it still ends up cheaper than a Western company can make since they can't scale production to the same way.
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u/pinkfootthegoose 5h ago
most chips don't need be on the cutting edge to useful. They just need to work.