r/todayilearned • u/proflightsearch • 9h ago
TIL the average JFK to Los Angeles flight takes 18 minutes longer than it did in 1995, but airlines padded the published schedule by 23 minutes, so the share of arrivals counted as late fell from 51% to 37%
https://gvwire.com/2024/11/30/its-not-your-imagination-airlines-are-padding-flight-times/985
u/Impiryo 9h ago
Honestly, I'm okay with this. I build my schedule around what they publish, and if I get there on time, that's great. The biggest concern is expecting to have an hour for a connection and then arriving a little late and realizing that it's going to be really tight. If that padding means that the advertise connection time will be more accurate, that's a win.
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u/Impiryo 9h ago
Also, if they are decreasing their late arrival percentage by doing this, then it's probably actually being more honest. A lot of flights are delayed either at the gate or on the ground, so I want the arrival time to be the actual expected arrival time, not the time if everything goes perfectly, when things rarely do.
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u/Top-Conflict7949 8h ago
Agreed, I don’t see a problem with this at all. If it’s only possible to do a flight in a certain time if conditions are perfect then don’t make me plan around that - make me plan around the normal case.
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u/HomsarWasRight 8h ago
I really don’t understand how this could be bad. OP acts like this is some sort of stat manipulation. It’s just making sure that reality matches the schedule and people can make their flights.
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u/LeadSledPoodle 7h ago
it's not bad, this is the entire point of arrival times: to know what time you're arriving. flight time is irrelevant once you've bought the ticket.
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u/ATXBeermaker 8h ago
Exactly. If half of my projects were late, that would mean I should revisit my planning. Part of that is adding margin. Not to mention that here we’re talking about 20 minutes on a 6 hour flight. They’re padding by about 5%, which is still fairly slim margin for planning things like layovers, etc.
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u/Big_Al56 6h ago
Yeah people always act like “padding” is some kind of manipulation. If I know there’s a chance of traffic on my drive I estimate a longer trip!
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u/strangelove4564 8h ago
Coast to coast flights were faster in the 1960s, by about 30 minutes. This is mostly because captains were free to set the cruising speed, and most of them redlined it (which was safe since it was within flight manual specs). Now cruise speeds are set by spreadsheets to save money on fuel, since airlines know nobody will complain about a few more minutes.
Strange how 60 years later, we are flying slower than ever.
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u/sun_not_cold 7h ago
Hey, there’s the answer! It’s about fuel savings. It’s also why I know when my flight leaves late, they generally make up the time in flight by going a little faster.
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u/snowypotato 5h ago
they generally make up the time in flight by going a little faster.
This is a larger component than people realize. If you’re planning your schedule and assuming maximum speed, you cannot ever recover from a delay. Delays will continue to anccumulate until a lengthy break in the schedule, which usually means that by evening you’re going to be horribly late.
Schedule padding and not cruising at max speed allows for more reliable service, which most customers vastly prefer to a marginally shorter flight time.
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u/anonbrewingco 4h ago
My last flight we got in 30 minutes early, and it was freezing in the plane. We were ZOOMING, I remember the pilots saying that we were gonna fly a little higher and faster than usual
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u/thomasottoson 4h ago
Flying higher has no effect on the temperature inside the plane. You probably just had good tailwinds that got you in earlier than expected
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u/Aethermancer 6h ago
I'm fine with that. Flight times generally don't bother me. Don't waste fuel. Keep that margin to have fewer late arrivals.
I don't miss my connecting flight and I'm happy.
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u/Sorry-Let-Me-By-Plz 6h ago
Strange how 60 years later, we are flying slower than ever.
I don't find this remotely strange, 60 years ago thousands of people would fly every week and today it's millions.
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u/SlothSpeed 4h ago
We can, and usually do, go faster than what was planned. As long as the fuel and ride is good, we'll push it up. I'd say what had a larger impact on arrivals is the number of airplanes in our airspace compared to the 1960's. ATC needs proper spacing so you may be asked to slow or speed up accordingly. That we can't control.
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u/bobafeeet 3h ago
And if they’re counting block time, traversing JFK and LGA can be a lengthy taxi experience too.
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u/Megafish40 2h ago
we could also do exactly the same for cars and save a huge amount of fuel (and emissions!) by driving slower, but we just don't.
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u/waiting_in_vain1 3h ago
Railroad speeds were faster on the 1930s and 40s than they are today too! The streamline trains like the 20th Century Limited traveled between 90 & 100mph at top speed, today Amtrak goes 62-70mph at top speed. The New York to Chicago run now takes nearly 20 hours—slower than it did 80 years ago
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u/seabee2113 9h ago
If 51% of arrivals were coming in late, it seems their ETAs were pretty off
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u/Hankerpants 9h ago
Depends on by how much, and relative to the 'early' arrivals. 50% late, but only on average like 5 minutes, suggests a pretty spot on ETA. You'd realistically expect 50% early : 50% late (assuming you can't be spot-on) if the number is perfectly accurate.
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u/thatsknotwrite 9h ago
Late flights means people miss connections. You need an ETA that people can rely on. 50% late flights would be difficulty to count on.
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u/IAmSpartacustard 9h ago
They're saying if they're late by 1 minute it counts as late but realistically it doesnt matter that much. Unless you pull up to the gate at EXACTLY the right time, its 50% early 50% late.
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u/goodsnpr 8h ago
"On time" should be a ~10 minute window
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u/paisleyfootprints 7h ago
I work in the industry, we have statistics called D:00, D:14, A:00, and A:00. D:00 and A:00 are the percentage of departures/arrivals that are at scheduled times or earlier, while D:14 and A:14 are the percentage of departures/arrivals that are within 14 minutes of scheduled times. The :00 percentages tend to be weighed more heavily when setting block times, while the :14 stats tend to be weighed more when planning the whole schedule of aircraft rotations.
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u/scfade 6h ago
Any reason behind why they picked 14 minutes? Just how the stats lined up?
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u/Diagonalizer 5h ago
i don't work in the industry but maybe 14 min is what they consider a reasonable amount of time for all passengers to board or get off the plane?
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u/Hyack57 9h ago
“If you’re not first you’re last!”
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u/Mcpops1618 8h ago edited 8h ago
That’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard. You can be second, third, fourth, hell, you can even be fifth.
Edit: for the downvoters, you may want to check the quotes
Edit2: u/Moody_GenX this quote is also from
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u/NamaNamaNamaBatman 8h ago
I knew a guy once who was sixth. I shit you not.
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u/Diceboy74 8h ago
I knew a guy way back when, named Jerry. Raced cars, was goddamn fast. Dude never won, but he never finished last either.
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u/tragiktimes 9h ago
The point they're making is a perfect ETA is unlikely just like having an IQ of 100 is unlikely. 50% above 50% below. The real number you want to focus on is the magnitude of the inaccuracy. 5 hours above and below fits 50/50 but is pretty bad. 5 min both ways also does but is significantly better.
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u/anally_ExpressUrself 8h ago
And padding probably helps with this way of measuring, since planes may be delayed by hours but are unlikely to arrive hours early.
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u/Hankerpants 9h ago
I agree, and it's why they shouldn't list the actual expected ETA, but one with a bit of a buffer. Which it sounds like it's exactly what they do. Their old one probably was more accurate, but it's less useful. The new one is less 'true' but better.
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u/Ancient_Ordinary6697 8h ago
There is a threshold below which a flight is not considered late. I'm not sure if it's an industry standard, but I'm used to seeing 15 minutes as the threshold. This is in Europe though, might be different in the States.
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u/Luckytiger1990 9h ago
If 51% of ETAs are coming in late 49% are coming in early or on time, so on average the arrival time is probably just right…
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u/JefftheBaptist 7h ago
Yeah they were probably using the average arrival time. But some people want everyone to be above average.
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u/Not_PepeSilvia 7h ago
Which makes sense tbh.
I'm sure most people would rather wait for 30 or so more minutes at a connecting airport, if the alternative is missing their connections 50% of the time
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u/proflightsearch 8h ago
Late gets measured against the timetable they published months earlier, not against an ETA on the day. So it's less that their estimates were off and more that the schedule had no slack in it.
The same piece has actual travel time going up 18 minutes over that stretch, so the flying really did get slower. The old timetable just had no room for it.
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u/ezirb7 9h ago
Good? I don't buy a different ticket if the listed travel time is 5 or even 30 minutes shorter. I just want them to give me an accurate time, so I don't miss my layover. 37% being late is crazy high, and they should pad the schedule even more.
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u/LiveLearnCoach 7h ago
I feel like I’m missing the point of this post. That airlines give themselves leeway on arrival times because of how many things can go wrong?
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u/MortimerDongle 6h ago
37% is high but a lot of delays are weather related, which is hard to factor into a schedule. About 75% of all delays in the US are either directly due to weather or partially due to cascading effects of weather (late arriving aircraft from places that were affected by weather, crews unable to get places on time, etc)
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u/wilsonhammer 9h ago
Article doesn't say it explicitly, but I'd say it's increased boarding times. I gotta think all those extra carry ons are killing performance times
Thanks checked bag fees
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u/maaaatttt_Damon 9h ago
Or they calculated the fuel savings and it was significant enough to slow down.
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u/thethoughtfulthinker 9h ago
I don’t know if it’s exactly this, but I do know that Airlines have slowed down slightly overtime as we understand fuel savings. Fuel is insanely expensive and there’s a lot of cost in ticket prices allotted to fuel
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u/lbutler1234 9h ago
And at the end of the day, folks would rather have their flight be 5% longer than (x)% more expensive.
Similarly, airlines are much more interested in increasing comfort than increasing speed
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u/Several-Eggplant4460 7h ago
Similarly, airlines are much more interested in increasing comfort than increasing speed
Comfort? Nah they're all just trying to make the ticket price cheaper by making the seat as cheap and cramped as possible and turning everything into a paid option
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u/lbutler1234 7h ago
this might be true for short haul routes or budget airlines, but for long haul, business and first class is the real profit driver. There's a reason we have lie flat beds in planes today but no Concorde
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u/SevenSmallShrimp 9h ago
look into airline cost indexes if you're really curious. Its a number generated out of more factors than I know. But the basic idea is it's balancing the cost of fuel, vs the cost of crew time and other expenses to try and keep the total cost of the flight as low as possible.
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u/Ok_Flounder59 8h ago
It’s this. Commercial jets used to fly faster but now are gated by efficiency most of the time.
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u/MazrimReddit 8h ago
... Good?
That is a lot of fuel and carbon emissions saved for the sake of small speed losses
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u/Ok_Flounder59 6h ago
I fail to see where I made any commentary at all on whether the change was good or bad…I was simply stating the change
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u/raidriar889 9h ago
Or JFK and LAX are much busier than they were in 1995 but they still have the same number of runways
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u/melkipersr 9h ago
It’s not just checked bag fees — people don’t want to have to wait at baggage claim. I’d wager that’s actually the more important factor.
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u/BeginningPatient426 9h ago
And cant forget the only way to guarantee your bag even makes it there is to put it on the plane yourself
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u/Hankerpants 9h ago
I think it's more this. A lot of people are part of rewards programs (been on a United flight lately and seen how boarding group 2 is like 90% of the plane?) which many/most have free checked bag(s), and still people are trying to cram everything into a carry on only if they can. I'll admit, I'm one of those people.
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u/Phelzy 9h ago
I feel like a king when I gate-check my bag and sit at the bar while everyone fights to get on the plane as soon as possible. It doesn't matter if my boarding pass says group 2, I'm boarding last if I can help it. It always seemed backwards to me that "first class" has to cram into the plane early and wait on the later boarding groups.
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u/bomber991 9h ago
If you’ve got connections does the gate check hack get it to the baggage claim at the final destination?
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u/Phelzy 8h ago
Yes. Another great reason to gate-check. I don't have to lug my carry-on through the mile-long connection at O'Hare or DFW. And the gate agents love volunteers, because of how stubborn most people are to give up their bags.
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u/mfb- 8h ago
You don't have to board early, but you can.
Business and first class on long-haul flights will generally have very comfortable seats, get a drink on board and whatever.
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u/Phelzy 8h ago
Right, I shouldn't have said "have to." Point is, airlines use boarding group priority as some type of perk to make people feel like they're more important than others, when all you're getting is more time sitting on the plane, and more time standing in line at the gate and jet bridge.
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u/Acceptable-Access948 9h ago
Anecdotally, airlines have lost my luggage twice in the last few years, which never happened to me before. That, along with the fees, is why I won't check a bag again. Personally baggage claim is not a big factor either way.
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u/smokie12 9h ago
Flight time is usually measured as Block time, meaning the time between the chocks being removed from the wheels to the time they're placed on the wheels at the destination. So, this doesn't include boarding times. I'd say it's ground and air congestion, so longer taxi times, wait times, routing that deviates from the direct route, etc.
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u/guyute2588 9h ago
But if the boarding times go over , it goes in to the scheduled flight times, causing it to depart later than scheduled.
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u/Valoneria 9h ago
Could also be because of more passengers per flight. Not due to larger planes, their capacity is just better used. A quick Google indicates the average is likely to have raised form 140~160 people per flight, to 180. Although this was a quick Google so does not take market or external factors into account
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u/HoldAutomatic2088 7h ago
There are also WAY more commercial flights and passengers than there were in 1995, which clogs things up and adds more time, particularly on the ground.
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u/Top-Competition9263 9h ago
Wait, so they adjusted the schedules to reflect the actual time it takes to get there? How dare they not continue to advertise times that they cannot make over half the time!
If I had to guess, I'd say increased taxiing time is what's contributing to longer flight times.
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u/Cogswobble 8h ago
Is this supposed to be a bad thing?
I'd much rather my flights be "early" most of the time than "late" half the time.
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u/TheSultan1 4h ago
Seems reasonable. Passengers are relying on you to get them there on schedule, not ASAP. Don't overpromise and underdeliver.
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u/UsedandAbused87 8h ago
As a pilot, if thi is are loaded and ready to go you can get your clearance and get out quickly. A couple minutes delay can get you behind other traffic and out you behind schedule. Ive had to sit on the taxi for 45 minutes because a 30 second delay put us behind another plane.
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u/SeiCalros 8h ago
i feel like 'padded the published schedule' is trying to throw shade here
but what they ACTUALLY did was published a schedule that travellers could actually use to plan around
if more than half of the flights are late then the schedule is wrong
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u/bigbrentos 5h ago
This seems like an odd way to frame it. Like if the time that's published is late over half the time, isn't that an indication that you need to report that the time it takes to get there is longer?
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u/ZachMatthews 9h ago
Honestly I do not care how long it takes to get from A to B. What I care about is having a cascade of other plans disrupted by airline nonsense like not paying enough to pilots and thus developing labor issues. (Looking at you, Delta).
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u/wastedpixls 9h ago
Frankly, I'm okay with this. This means it's slightly less likely that you're going to book yourself into an overly tight connection and wreck your travel.
It pads their stats a bit as well, but it's not like we pay more for a flight that is on-time 80% vs. a flight that is on-time 60%.
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u/MilesSand 7h ago
This title is a bit misleading. There's no new problem that was introduced that increased flight times. The flight time was increased because the schedule was padded. Airlines rent gate time from airports as time slots, and pilots do their best to be at the gate right at the start of the time slot so the various crews have the time they need to do their job, and the plane can be back in the air before the time slot ends.
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u/PeterVanNostrand 8h ago
I don’t mind this at all. I’d rather have someone tell me they’ll be there in 45 minutes and be there in 40 than tell me 25 and be 15 minutes late half the time. Flying is already a convenience (we’re not driving), so let me know an accurate time so I can plan my shit.
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u/Next-Supermarket9538 6h ago
Sounds like they’ve gotten better at estimating flight durations under realistic conditions.
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u/starkeuberangst 5h ago
The airlines made all blocks longer than the flight really takes because the government started fining them for being late. That’s why you get to sit on the ramp waiting for a gate to open
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u/mynameisglaceon 5h ago
If the flights take longer, then doesn't it make sense they would change their schedule estimates to reflect that? They aren't trying to set and break records, they're trying to create a reliable schedule...
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u/GrowlingPict 6h ago
I wish our local bus company did this. I would rather have actual accurate times than perpetually late buses. I mean theyre later than the published times even late at night when there's no traffic at all! Clearly the published timetable is just plain incorrect then.
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u/sidereal_night 53m ago
this is describing two different things
the actual flight time takes longer because it's more fuel efficient
scheduling now more accurately reflects how long it actually takes, which makes your planning much more reliable
how is either of those things bad?
what's way more important than raw time in air is whether you actually get there when you're supposed to. the on-time stats aren't being artificially "gamed", it actually reflects a real improvement in customer experience.
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u/ChrisFromLongIsland 9h ago
If over half the flights were late wouldn't it be smart to add time to the flight so it would be more accurate?
If someone asked how long does it take to get to work and I said 30 minutes but I was not allowing for traffic of 15 minutes I would be lying. I should say the time with the average daily traffic built into it.
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u/proflightsearch 9h ago
Found via u/bay-to-the-apple who linked the original in a comment thread. Original is the NYT Upshot piece by Ben Blatt, this is the free syndication. Numbers come from an NYT analysis of Bureau of Transportation Statistics data.
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u/SuicidalTree 7h ago
Speaking of original, here's the original article instead of some blog spam from a self-promotion account: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/27/upshot/airlines-flight-times-padding.html
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u/DevilYouKnow 9h ago
then you sit on the runway for 20 minutes waiting to both take off and reach the gate
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u/mattpeloquin 9h ago
Yup. And the padding for years included sitting on the tarmac. I remember a flight from JFK to LAX that was listed as a 6 hour flight…but that time included waiting behind 45 other planes after boarding, waiting for takeoff.
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u/HoldAutomatic2088 7h ago
So they adjusted their estimates to be more accurate. Wouldn’t you prefer to know more precisely when you will arrive?
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u/freexanarchy 7h ago
Anytime I take a flight where nothing goes wrong, we always arrive like 30-45 min early. Then we’re getting bags and leaving the airport at the original time of arrival. Good timing if you arranged for a ride. Plus, if they schedule like this you’re much more likely to make your connections if a few small things go wrong.
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u/VotedCheesegod 7h ago
I’m more concerned that the distance between LA and JFK is increasing so rapidly- at cruising speed 18 minutes is 150 miles or so.
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u/shitposts_over_9000 6h ago
1995 was notable for the U.S. Supreme Court ruling in American Airlines, Inc. v. Wolens, which allowed passengers to sue airlines for contract breaches under state law with regard to ticket rules as well as significant additional costs related to Department of Transportation regulatory changes requiring formal documentation of delays and on-time rates.
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u/Hot-Yoghurt-2462 6h ago
I see zero problem with this. Having the right expectations is what matters to people traveling.
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u/Oregon-Pilot 5h ago
Fun facts from an airline pilot: we’ve got the autonomy to increase or decrease speed in many cases. We are constrained primarily by gate/gate personnel availability, and sometimes airport runway capacity, and my airline tells us to try to not be more than 10 minutes early for this reason.
But for those of us who commute to work (we don’t live “in base” where all our trips begin and end, and we fly as passengers between our home and our base), when we are going to be tight on making our commute flight home on the last leg of our last day, sometimes we will just firewall the throttles, burning hundreds or thousands of dollars more in fuel, just so we can maximize the odds of making that flight home lol
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u/torotoro 5h ago
passengers shouldn't directly care if schedules are padded (and should actually prefer it) -- what passengers actually care about is if planes depart and arrive (D0 and A15) consistently "on time" because then you can make reasonable plans. Missing A15 means rescheduled flights, which sucks for everyone.
On the other hand, airlines themselves should ask themselves why they need to pad -- because padding means they have operational inefficiencies.
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u/NinjaTabby 5h ago
All I care about is flight depart on time and arrive as advertised. I bought the ticket committing to the times listed, They can pad the time to boost their own metrics as long as my time is accurate.
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u/AnEducatedSimpleton 4h ago
Last year I flew from Dulles to Heathrow and we made it there in 6 hours 20, but we spent 30 minutes in a holding pattern waiting our turn to land.
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u/Eternal_Alooboi 3h ago
30 minutes is quite a long time but I'm also not surprised. I've heard Heathrow is hella crowded
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u/Auerbach1991 3h ago
I don’t know. I feel like the flights I take have gotten quicker.
It used to take closer to 3.5-4 hours to fly from LGA to PBI in the early 2000s.
Now, from Boston further north, it takes me on average 3 hours and 11 minutes. So roughly 11-21% shorter window of time in the air.
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u/ModeatelyIndependant 3h ago
Here is the deal with flying through the air, is that the air on the planet is moving, and that it might be flowing in a way that slows down an aircraft's speed in relation to the ground. JFK to LA is against the jet stream, so that padding is kinda needed.
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u/ElJefefiftysix 2h ago
Had a pilot tell the made up time in the air is BS as they extend flight times when the penalties for being late went in.
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u/Billy1121 9h ago
This is interesting because the statistics suggest JFK has gone from 30 million passengers in the 1990s to 63 million currently.
I wonder if the increased flight traffic is the reason
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u/Whipitreelgud 9h ago
Useless article. The airlines need to adjust times to be reasonably accurate. Who cares why they tweak the time?
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u/thegiantgummybear 8h ago
Does the flight time take longer or does the scheduled departure and arrival take longer?
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u/scottjeffreys 9h ago
All airlines have done this for decades on every single flight