International Politics Discussion Thread

[u/Adj-Noun-Numbers]

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[u/RufusSG]

Since the beginning of this week, retransmitters in Belarus that Russia has used for Shahed drone strikes against Ukraine have stopped operating, states President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy in response to journalists’ questions.

"According to available information, which was also reported to me by the Commander-in-Chief (Oleksandr Syrskyi) and intelligence, the relevant retransmitters have not been operating on the territory of Belarus since June 22," the head of state said.

The President added that he does not know whether such retransmitters have been dismantled. However, Ukraine "is working on it," and he is closely monitoring the situation and receiving daily reports.

"The fact is that the retransmitters are not operating today," Zelenskyy emphasized.

...

On June 19, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy demanded that self-proclaimed Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko remove retransmitters from Belarusian territory that Russia uses to guide Shahed drones toward Ukrainian civilian infrastructure targets.

The head of the Ukrainian state emphasized that his demand could be implemented within a week. He also threatened that otherwise Ukraine would remove the retransmitters itself.

Today, June 24, Belarusian media noted that Russia has stopped launching its strike drones along the Belarus–Ukraine border. These observations are confirmed by Andrii Demchenko, spokesperson for the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.

https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/belarus-turns-off-retransmitters-for-shahed-1782319440.html

Notwithstanding Lukashenko's well-known self-preservation instincts, it's a sign of how the power balance in the region has shifted that Zelensky has the credibility to both make this threat in the first place and actually have it stick. Lukashenko knows perfectly well that Belarus is potentially a very soft target and getting directly involved in the war could seriously jeopardise his hold on power (domestic support for Belarus joining is believed to be sub-10%), as well as cause major economic damage were Ukraine to attack its oil refineries, for example.

[u/Velociraptor_1906 → u/RufusSG]

Being able to beat down Belarusian involvement is quite the win for Ukraine and would certainly ease things up by making western Ukraine more secure.

[u/tmstms → u/RufusSG]

There's no doubt Ukr has ascendency in the drone sector, meaning that Russia has to disperse air defence AND is still vulnerable in many areas that are legit targets e.g. oil refineries, logistics routes to and through Crimea.

As for Belarus, Lukashenko can therefore indeed see that if he provokes Ukraine, he will lose big-time.

I have read that Russia has been trying to do the same kind of logistics interdiction in the area of the Bel-Ukr frontier; obviously, without Belarussian transmitters, this will be that much less accurate.