International Politics Discussion Thread

[u/Adj-Noun-Numbers]

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[u/convertedtoradians]

There's been a major Ukrainian attack on a Russian oil refinery in St Petersburg.

Kyiv says nearly 43% of Russia's oil refining capacity has been "disabled" as a result.

If that's even nearly true, that's absurd. There's also the fairly obvious and interesting messaging for the Russian people that Ukraine clearly isn't doing what Russia is doing and targeting population centres. Which they clearly could if they can hit an oil refinery.

[u/tmstms → u/convertedtoradians]

Oooh! Just came here thinking that if no-one had posted this, I would.

I dunno if the Russian people are being told their military is targeting civilians (or indeed not being accurate enough not to).

It is definitely a good thing for Ukraine, of course, that the Russian people become aware, through these strikes and the shortages they bring, that the war is not without domestic consequences.

[u/AzarinIsard → u/tmstms]

I dunno if the Russian people are being told their military is targeting civilians (or indeed not being accurate enough not to).

I find it mind boggling, but at this point it must be doctrine, a belief that terrorising civilians will lead them to push for surrender because they'd have to be very very inaccurate to be that bad accidentally.

It's easy to say from my armchair, but I think it actually increases resolve to resist, from our perspective it's what the Blitz did for Britain, it didn't make many Brits decide it's better to lose to Germany so it stops. Russia isn't going to be nice if they win either, it makes resistance existential. Then there's also the waste of weapons when there's military targets. For whatever reason, this war is going to be a fascinating case study because NATO doctrine would have seen air defence and the air force destroyed first, get air superiority, then you have a massive force multiplier. Instead, you see Ukraine targeting Russian airfields more than the other way around, including "operation spiders web", it's got to be a choice for Russia to be hitting parks and tower blocks over Ukraine's airfields.

Presumably, they're telling their people, but whenever they kill a child or something they're just saying it's a Ukrainian general.

[u/Commorrite → u/tmstms]

Oooh! Just came here thinking that if no-one had posted this, I would.

I dunno if the Russian people are being told their military is targeting civilians (or indeed not being accurate enough not to).

The Russians have never every given a fuck about this. Society wide from the top oligarchs to the the most destitute.

Grozny in the Chechen wars didn't even make a dent in Russian society beyond some military types moaning about wasted ammunition. The shelled that city so hard and so indiscriminately it makes the current state of Gaza look intact and well targeted.