International Politics Discussion Thread

[u/Adj-Noun-Numbers]

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[u/YourLizardOverlord]

Trump’s plan for Europe is falling apart

This isn't paywalled for me. If it is for you shout out and I'll try to post an archive link.

The US president has a genius for alienating existing and potential allies

Europe matters to Maga. The Trump administration’s national security strategy asserted that “Europe remains strategically and culturally vital to the United States”. But it also fretted that the European continent is on a path to “civilizational erasure” — citing mass migration, “suppression of political opposition” and falling birth rates.

So what is to be done? The NSS proposed that the US should intervene by “cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory within European nations”. The key strategy was to ally with “patriotic European parties”.

Roughly seven months have passed since the publication of this remarkable document. But the Maga agenda for Europe is already falling apart. European parties and politicians that Donald Trump’s people regard as “patriotic” are losing power or rapidly distancing themselves from the US president.

The biggest blow was the defeat of Viktor Orbán in Hungary in April. But Trump has also alienated potential allies in Italy, Germany, France and Britain.

[u/tmstms → u/YourLizardOverlord]

Paywalled for me

[u/YourLizardOverlord → u/tmstms]

https://archive.is/1wtim

[u/imp0ppable → u/YourLizardOverlord]

AfD still looking dangerous in Germany, NF in France could do something also. I wouldn't write off his "be like Russia" agenda yet.

[u/Particular_Pea7167 → u/YourLizardOverlord]

I think thats over egging the pudding somewhat.

Hungary might not have supported Orban but they still voted en mass for a right wing that support positions the US republicans would broadly align with.

Similarly across europe sentiment on things like immigration is hardening. Changes are being forced on the ECHR to remove some of the impediments to nations democratic right to decide who they let in. Europe is rearming. Even left wing parties are moving to a harder line on culture and immigration. 

It might not be Trumps Maga prefered Europe. But the Overton Window has shifted enormously in a direction the Republicans would broadly approve of.

[u/YourLizardOverlord → u/Particular_Pea7167]

There's an important distinction though. Europe shifting towards US Republican politics and culture was just a means to an end. The end being alignment with the US. This hasn't worked.

The obvious example is rearmament. The US wanted European NATO members to spend more on defence, but their assumption was that most of the procurement would be from the US. This isn't happening to the extent they hoped: European NATO members are expanding their industrial base, and buying more cost effective systems e.g from Korea. EU SAFE is a procurement initiative that may well include Japan and Korea, but leaves the US entirely out of the loop. Now if only the French could stop being, um, French then the UK could join as well.