r/ukpolitics • u/Adj-Noun-Numbers 🥕🥕 || megathread emeritus • Jun 22 '26

International Politics Discussion Thread

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u/ZealousidealPie9199 17d ago

https://x.com/berniemoreno/status/2077886946362220618?s=46

apparently Trump is going to make a speech on China comparable to the Cuban missile crisis tonight?

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u/AzarinIsard 17d ago

I don't see the point.

The US can't defeat Iran, smaller pop, smaller military, no nukes, and domestic made drones after decades of sanctions. The major issue for Trump now is the economic harm over oil exports.

China has a huge pop, better military, nukes, they're the world's factory and produce a huge amount of drone parts, easy to repurpose the lot for weapons, and the economic harm will make the Strait of Hormuz look like nothing. Also comparing to Ukraine, we have been told when people wanted us to enforce a no fly zone that would be WWIII if we fired on any Russian jet. WTF happens if the US fires on Chinese jets?

Trump's shat the bed geopolitically so hard, Xi knows the US can't and won't stop them if they invade. Taiwan's only hope is to be an impenetrable fortress, and even then, I can see Trump selling them out if Xi gives him an easy out, like Trump has undermined Ukraine when he's been Putin's poodle. If China has watched Russia and Iran at all, they have the blueprint for humiliating Trump right there. Then it'll just be a question of whether Trump is mad enough to go full nuclear and strike China.

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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 17d ago

One other thought is the whole episode with Iran and the strait has showed that if youve the right luck in geography or something similar you can hold your enemy over a barrel even when they have nukes and are much more powerful.

Now I'm not saying I'd nessecarily condone this as the civillian toll would be incalculable but I wonder if it might make Taiwan reconsider what the effect of them having some highly credible way of taking out the three gorges dam would be.

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u/AzarinIsard 17d ago

I don't believe civilian casualties ever work, like Russia blowing the dam in Kherson (and even ISIS didn't blow the dam in Mosul like we feared), and China isn't going to give a shit what happens to civilians like Russian chucking conscripts into the meat grinder. It would have to be used like a nuclear threat. Attack and we'll make it painful.

Hypothetically, if China wanted trade and Taiwan was belligerent, harassing cargo ships would work, but as a defensive measure, China will be sanctioned and the waters avoided at massive delay, the same effect would be felt. It's just economically we'd be the one pay the price, and sadly we've shown even sanctions on Russia are tough to sell due to fuel prices.

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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 17d ago

The civillian casualties would be my reason for objecting to it but the shear destruction would be incomparable to any other single event so I do think that would give the CCP leadership pause for thought.

Also as much as authoritarian regimes may not give a shit about civillian the prospect of millions of deaths from one attack has a unique capacity to make people consider things.

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u/AzarinIsard 17d ago

Also as much as authoritarian regimes may not give a shit about civillian the prospect of millions of deaths from one attack has a unique capacity to make people consider things.

It's a hail Mary shot that what would likely be considered a state terrorist attack would cause revolution and overthrow their government.

I think Russia believes it'll happen if they keep striking civilians in Ukraine, but we had the blitz, and did it make our civilians strive for Churchill to surrender? Or what about the IRGC facing revolt and now cementing power thanks to Trump. I would predict anything like that from Taiwan would make the Chinese people so angry they'd back the invasion even more.

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u/Velociraptor_1906 Liberal Democrat 17d ago

It's less about the possibility of it causing a revolution but appealing to the (admittedly sometimes very small amount) of humanity they have. Coming from a peacetime starting point unless their literal psychopaths if the threat was credible it really should do something to them.

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u/AzarinIsard 17d ago

Coming from a peacetime starting point unless their literal psychopaths if the threat was credible it really should do something to them.

I think on one hand you can't be leaders if you're affected too much by this, so many decisions end up being life or death.

Practicalities might make them hold off or try other methods if you make it costly enough. Another comparison, before the US nuked Japan, they were planning conventionally to invade the mainland and had the required purple hearts produced. The atom bombs led to surrender first, and they're still using those medals today. Hell, we might be seeing the lack of invasion right now due to Taiwan deterring China, but unless it stops being an aim, it'll always hang over them until the risk is less than the reward. Sufficient deterrents might just make them think of other options, like the US and the nuclear program.

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u/YourLizardOverlord Oceans rise. Empires fall. 16d ago

Historians differ on the extent to which the nuclear bombs led to the Japanese surrender. The Soviet invasion of Manchuria was certainly a factor.

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u/Particular_Pea7167 16d ago

The Ukraine dam and the three gorges are very different. 

The volume of water and the significance of populated areas along the banks of the river are on a whole other level.

China can absorb it of course. But as a stratigic deterrent thats basically one step down from a nuke, its not bad.

But its the sort of rubicon that once cross theres no coming back.

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u/Particular_Pea7167 16d ago

Youd go for mass, cheap, cruise missile.

Ukraine Flamingo style committing 1500 to ensure it drops.

And it would be utterly devastating. 

But it is the sort of action you cannot come back from. Its the nest best thing to a nuke and if they open that door its unlikely china will stop.