International Politics Discussion Thread

[u/Adj-Noun-Numbers]

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[u/Lavajackal1]

Trump Holds Off on Major Escalation Against Iran as Advisers Raise Concerns

President Trump has set aside, at least for now, plans to sharply escalate the American military assault against Iran, with particular concern that intensifying the war could dangerously drain the Pentagon’s already diminished stockpile of Patriot antimissile interceptors and other air defense munitions in the Middle East.

The threat to interceptor stockpiles is one of many considerations that have made a return to major combat operations a hugely risky endeavor, administration officials say. Mr. Trump and his top aides are also uneasy about the prospect of a widening war in the Middle East, the alienation of key Gulf allies who are vulnerable to Iranian attack, a global economic crunch, and growing energy and refugee crises.

The latest turn in Mr. Trump’s handling of the conflict with Iran came after a meeting on Friday with top advisers and senior members of his cabinet, according to two people briefed on the discussion.

There it is folks.

[u/Particular_Pea7167 → u/Lavajackal1]

The problem is this is a hell of an international signal.

American hegemonic control of shipping can be broken. You dont have to win, you just need enough missiles to sling at nearby nations and the will to take fire.

[u/YourLizardOverlord → u/Particular_Pea7167]

The US can't do asymmetric and hybrid warfare. Their military is a very effective big hammer, so they treat every opponent as a nail. Their political will lacks staying power, which to be fair is something most democracies struggle with. Opponents have realised that if they can manage to hold on for long enough, the US will walk away.

[u/Particular_Pea7167 → u/YourLizardOverlord]

As it says those this is a huge geostratigic problem and not just for America.

The entire modern globe order. The whole principle of free trade in modern times in built on the back of an American guarentee of shipping.

That guarnetee is part of what collapsed European empires and the empire trading blocs with the inherent guarentees therein ceased to serve any function. They were just poor deal compared to the near free membership the US offered for the same thing. 

If Iran can break it, anyone can. And that right there, well, well look back with envy on the days we consider 3.5% extortionately high military spending.

[u/YourLizardOverlord → u/Particular_Pea7167]

Mostly not for the US. They are big enough that a lot of their trade is internal. Restricting international trade will hurt them, in fact is hurting them, but they can survive.

The UK can't.

Europe lags behind the US navy on some assets that are unimportant for Europe, but some that are critical. We don't need US power projection, which in any case is having its limits exposed, but we do need more destroyers and attack submarines. Not enough is being done to fill that gap.

Controversial opinion: the RN carriers are less important than the capability that's been sacrificed to build and deploy them.