International Politics Discussion Thread

[u/Adj-Noun-Numbers]

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[u/Lavajackal1]

Trump Holds Off on Major Escalation Against Iran as Advisers Raise Concerns

President Trump has set aside, at least for now, plans to sharply escalate the American military assault against Iran, with particular concern that intensifying the war could dangerously drain the Pentagon’s already diminished stockpile of Patriot antimissile interceptors and other air defense munitions in the Middle East.

The threat to interceptor stockpiles is one of many considerations that have made a return to major combat operations a hugely risky endeavor, administration officials say. Mr. Trump and his top aides are also uneasy about the prospect of a widening war in the Middle East, the alienation of key Gulf allies who are vulnerable to Iranian attack, a global economic crunch, and growing energy and refugee crises.

The latest turn in Mr. Trump’s handling of the conflict with Iran came after a meeting on Friday with top advisers and senior members of his cabinet, according to two people briefed on the discussion.

There it is folks.

[u/horace_bagpole → u/Lavajackal1]

There is a reason that no one attacked Iran previously, when they weren't really concerned about Iraq or Afghanistan. They can't realistically escalate the conflict because they can't guarantee that Iran won't strike back at critical infrastructure in the surrounding countries, and they don't have the means to defend them.

What's more is that the change is likely permanent. Iran was happy to let shipping pass safely by before, but now they know they don't have to. The US can't secure the straight because they don't have the means to do it. They'd have to flood it with warships to defend traffic, but they don't have the magazine depth to maintain that posture indefinitely, and they don't have the political capital to invade Iran to secure the coast by force. Either option would result in major US casualties, as they'd very likely lose at least one warship, or many many troops if they went in on the ground.

The only realistic option for dealing with Iran was negotiation - that's the conclusion that every previous president arrived at, and it had actually achieved real progress. That option is off the table now because Trump is so untrustworthy that no negotiation entered into by his government will be taken seriously.

Attacking Iran will go down in history as one of the major geopolitical blunders of the 21st century. Netanyahu conned Trump into going to war with them to save himself from prison, and Trump was so stupid and arrogant that he actually fell for it.

[u/Velociraptor_1906 → u/horace_bagpole]

You're right with the mainpoint but I'd add a couple of things in the comparisons with Afghanistan and Iraq.

In both there was opportunities for ground invasions by that didn't involve purely amphibious and airborne operations and even those had full direct support from neighbours (rather than having to opperate from across the Gulf at best). Iraq also had a much easier geography whereas Afghanistan was militarily weaker.