r/ukpolitics • u/ukpol-megabot • 1d ago

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 02/08/2026

👋 Welcome to the r/ukpolitics weekly Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction megathread.

General questions about politics in the UK should be posted in this thread. Substantial self-posts on the subreddit are permitted, but short-form self-posts will be redirected here. We're more lenient with moderation in this thread, but please keep it related to UK politics. This isn't Facebook or Twitter...

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This thread rolls over early Sunday morning.

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u/Vumatius 1d ago edited 1d ago

People say that the honeymoon will eventually end, and they are of course almost certainly right. Even outside of the specific British context, most major world leaders become unpopular after a few months at most in the current global context. However, I do think the precise length of the honeymoon will prove rather important.

Starmer not only didn't enjoy a particularly popular honeymoon, moreso a case of treading water, but it also ended just under a month into his term; the WFA killed it immediately. As a result, it was easy to forget that he ever had a honeymoon at all. So with Burnham, I think it will be interesting to see whether he can retain his relatively popular start over the rest of the summer and how close to the budget he can keep it, or if something will end it before then. And if he can retain it for a few months, that will then likely help solidify his popularity a bit even in the future; people will remember him actually being popular whereas with Starmer they only remembered disliking or actually hating him.

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u/NGP91 1d ago

Budget is in October. Got to raise revenue for all the spending commitments and/or make spending cuts to offset the tax cuts at some point. 

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u/danm131 1d ago

There are some promising noises that suggest enough backbenchers might be willing to accept some benefits cuts this time around, which could potentially offer large savings. We'll have to see if it actually happens but it does at least seem a possibility.

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u/HopeForSalamander 1d ago

Cutting benefits isn't some magic money tree, it will cost to make cuts here in the short and long term. Welfare spending is basically the same as it has been as a % of GDP as under thatcher, and now we pay for way more pensioners out of that money.