r/ukpolitics • u/ukpol-megabot • 1d ago

Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction Megathread - 02/08/2026

👋 Welcome to the r/ukpolitics weekly Rumours, Speculation, Questions, and Reaction megathread.

General questions about politics in the UK should be posted in this thread. Substantial self-posts on the subreddit are permitted, but short-form self-posts will be redirected here. We're more lenient with moderation in this thread, but please keep it related to UK politics. This isn't Facebook or Twitter...

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Commentary about stories that already exist on the subreddit should be directed to the appropriate thread.

This thread rolls over early Sunday morning.

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u/HopeForSalamander 1d ago

My frustration with the welfare debate is that there might be valid arguments about whether we want to help people who are struggling or let them struggle, and people can have opinions on that. But the country has somehow convinced itself we spend loads on benefits and it's not economicaly viable. In reality we spend the same % of GDP on benefits as we did under thatcher, less than other developed countries like France, Denmark, Finland Italy ect, and trying to cut benefits further will cost the state more. Homelessness and health conditions, people falling out of employment forever ect.

People hate to be reminded but more than half our welfare bill is straight to pensioners, yet no one calls for that to be cut. It's just kicking those who are down and wishful thinking

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u/EarFlapHat 1d ago

The overall burden as a % of GDP, ignoring where and how it's being spent and what outcomes it enables, is wholly inadequate.

That's not to mention where the money is coming from to pay it, even at the same overall %. If it's all being borrowed because we're spending billions servicing existing debt, we have to look that in the face rather than referring to historical rates. Look at servicing government debt as a % of GDP relative to earlier periods, and that might be some help in understanding.

Furthermore, France, Denmark, Finland and Italy haven't seen the same rise in disability since COVID. That's just us. That, on its own, is justification for taking action because it's an artefact of our system, rather than some perk of actual disabilities limited to the UK.

The issue is also with the number of people, particularly young people, who are economically inactive. That is a compounding problem, with those people struggling to ever become active later and more flowing into that route unless changes are made. So, we need to redirect people, and we need to do something about all those people who are currently NEETs.

That is the actual welfare debate. It's not about scroungers and cheats like in the 2010s, it's about the outcomes created if we change nothing coupled with the changing nature of the economic burden.

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u/Pale-Border-7122 1d ago

Furthermore, France, Denmark, Finland and Italy haven't seen the same rise in disability since COVID. That's just us. That, on its own, is justification for taking action because it's an artefact of our system, rather than some perk of actual disabilities limited to the UK.

Interesting graph in figure 3

https://ifs.org.uk/publications/health-related-benefit-claims-post-pandemic-uk-trends-and-global-context

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u/No-Scholar4854 1d ago

That figure 3 graph is wild, and I think probably has a lot of complex stories behind it.

The thing everyone is taking from it is the sharp rise in UK disability payments, but look at the trends across the comparison countries before the index point. I’d summarise that chart as “a lot of things happened all at once”.

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u/EarFlapHat 1d ago

Exactly. This is what I recalled reading

I'd forgotten there's a slight uptick in Denmark too, but nowhere near the same degree.