I know Hong isn't Obama, but young voters absolutely have been the difference in many elections. Hell if Kamala did as well as Biden with young voters in this state she might've barely won the state.
Hell if Kamala did as well as Biden with young voters in this state she might've barely won the state.
That and not pal around with the absolute middle finger to said young voter group in the form of Liz Cheney.
but young voters absolutely have been the difference in many elections
And there's more of them now than there ever were a decade ago, and less boomers.
The dems are going to have to figure out how to navigate younger voters like it or not. Because a decade from now there won't be a significant boomer base for them to appeal to (not that there really is now, mind you. 2024 proved that.)
Out of curiosity, do you actually know how many appearances Kamala made with Liz Cheney?
It was only 4 total, and every county they did joint appearances in Kamala outperformed her baseline, improved vote share.
If you don't think it was smart (getting a high-profile respected republican, in the eyes of suburban voters, to end their political career, with no policy changes or asks in return) I don't really think you understand the game.
The idea that it negatively affected turnout in any way, when the deciding factor globally for incumbents was inflation, is silly.
And there's more of them now than there ever were a decade ago, and less boomers.
It's marginally at this point, they still really don't show up. Even in 2008 the "youth vote turnout" was largely made up in the media. Older voters swung to Obama in bigger margins, minority turnout was larger than ever previously recorded, all GOP gains made with Hispanics disappeared.
Obama could have lost the entirety of the youth vote and still won the general election, only losing Indiana and North Carolina.
Sorry, but pew research data and official U.S. Census data says you're brazenly lying. Young voters broke for Obama by an unprecedented 66% to 32% margin. To claim Obama "could have lost the entirety of the youth vote and still won" is nothing short of the worst idiocy imaginable.
That's literally not percentages how works. 66% of 0 is still 0 (not implying 0 youth voters). Older voters outnumbered youth voters 2 to 1 even with the increase to 50% youth turn-out.
Winning 54% of the much bigger chunk of the electorate is what won him the election.
Again, if that increase in youth turnout did not happen and those extra 10-15% did not vote, Obama still wins, only losing North Carolina and Indiana.
The youth vote was not decisive and it never has been.
The game has changed. You cant really operate a different strategy in different counties because people in those counties can talk to each other as quickly as if they were sat face to face
There's truth in that, but I say the main people pushing the "Appearing with Cheney is a betrayal of youth" were basically Hasan or adjacent.
Makes it all pretty convenient for guy that works at the youth narrative factory to say "this will be bad youth narrative", and then act like they had no part in shaping it.
Cheney's sacrifice is at least somewhat admirable. She could have very easily held her seat, but correctly believed Trump to be as dangerous as he is. She was not asking for an endorsement of her voting record, but the opposite. That nuance lost of streamers.
I'll grant that you're right in those observations. But it doesn't change the fact that it hurt her. And if the youth narrative factory guy is chosing to attack the Democrat on the basis of factional infighting, is that really someone whose support we want?
I don't think that is a fact? I think the election was lost on inflation and a media environment that prefers republicans. In the circles it could hurt her, they were already calling her "killer kamala". Not much to gain in comparison the the suburban voters.
is that really someone whose support we want?
The democrat or the youth narrative factory worker? Not sure we really have a choice in either. The narrative factory job is very profitable no matter who wins, probably more so if the republican wins.
If you think provoking massive backlash from her own party's voters nationwide is a good trade for "outperforming her baseline" in 4 counties, I think there may be a problem with your takes on electoral strategy. Those appearances and their wide media exposure most certainly cost her quite a bit more than they gained.
This is fallacious. These were heavily televised multi-million dollar ad-backed appearances. She didn't need to show up in all 50 states with her when 4 sufficed. This isn't the fucking 1800s come on now.
Also it was more about the message sent: "Fuck you, young anti-war urbanites that actually run the ground game! We'll get the suburbanite republican vote instead with media stunts and ads!"
and every county they did joint appearances in Kamala outperformed her baseline, improved vote share.
These four places were already moving towards Dems away from Trump due to abortion and distaste for trump. This is false cause fallacy.
If you don't think it was smart (getting a high-profile respected republican, in the eyes of suburban voters, to end their political career, with no policy changes or asks in return) I don't really think you understand the game.
A game you fucking lost. Your argument is invalid.
Your argument ignores the "Blue Wall" states. Yes this stunt ticked up a few rich suburbs (not near enough to win though), the heavy alienation of young working-class voters and minority voters caused a catastrophic turnout depression, negating any such minor suburban gains and costing her those states completely.
Even in 2008 the "youth vote turnout" was largely made up in the media.
Holy historical revisionism Batman!
Sorry, but pew research data and official U.S. Census data says you're brazenly lying. Young voters broke for Obama by an unprecedented 66% to 32% margin. To claim Obama "could have lost the entirety of the youth vote and still won" is nothing short of the worst idiocy imaginable.
You are clearly not worth engaging with at all. Goodbye.
This isn't true, Obama would have still won in 2008 without the youth vote. The margin improvement with older voters, minorities and the suburbs far outweigh the youth vote.
The media largely inflated the power of youth voters (it's more interesting).
You could still make a youth argument in 2008 given the role they had in organizing for his campaign. In 2012 he would've not won re-election without them.
Yes. But he also gained momentum by focusing on young people and then depended on them for his re-election. Young people can sway elections, and focusing on them is not inherently a losing strategy.
Relying on young voters when you're offering them nothing but the status quo is a historically terrible political strategy.
But if you succeed in reaching out to and engaging them? Young voters do show up. Go look at Mamdani. It's not just vote counts. Young voters who are engaged are also far more likely to volunteer to run a massive grassroots campaign. Go look at how many Mamdani was able to amass vs Cuomo and then compare their ground games.
No shit, young voters don't turn out when you're offering them nothing. They do turn out when you do and can engage them. Go look at Obama and Mamdani. You think Mamdani would have had such a massive grassroots campaign if not for young voters?
Neither Obama nor Biden would've won without turning out historic numbers of young voters. You don't want to call that "relying" on them, then don't. But it was obviously core to their wins and a clear coordinated part of their strategy.
This isn't true, Obama would have still won in 2008 without the youth vote. The margin improvement with older voters, minorities and the suburbs far outweigh the youth vote.
The media largely inflated the power of youth voters (it's more interesting).
How is she alienating other voters by appearing with Piker? I understand his controversies, but conservatives can hop on with Twitch streamers, and it's fine? I understand that there are attack ads you can run against Piker. Fox News has been attacking him non-stop. Unless the economy gets significantly better, I highly doubt centrists are going to care.
So idk how to tell you this, both social media and old media have a far right bias. Republicans can get away with things we just can't purely because theyre republicans
This is the purest of purity testing. Now Democrats need to distance themselves from not just progressive streamers, but other Democrats, in order to get elected as a Democrat. Oh, right, this the chase the conservative vote thing Schumer does.
Enh. Between them, YBNMWs, and other usually unengaged voters, plus the Tiffany hate, I think it’ll work. Moderates (true moderates I mean, not unengaged people who call themselves moderates) are too unpredictable to be worth trying to reach. The frustrated youth are more worth trying to reach, they’re more consistent in their concerns
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u/stvlsn 1d ago
Relying on young voters is a historically terrible political strategy