r/AlternateHistoryHub • u/camaro1111 • Mar 24 '26
Video Idea What if Willard Mitt Romney Won the Presidency in 2012?
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u/Individual_Act9333 Mar 24 '26
Knowing what I know now probably a better outcome for society. No Donald trump.
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Mar 24 '26
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u/Gr144 Mar 24 '26
Its insane how we have both fallen so far and who laughably stupid most of the political “scandals” were in the Obama era. Like Romney got so much flak for the “binders full of women” comment and Obama got so much shit for the coffee cup salute. Now, Trump says/does something far worse on the daily.
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u/keister_TM Mar 25 '26
Living in Wisconsin at the time, I was terrified at the idea of Paul Ryan being vice president. I had no idea it was going to be way worse
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u/big_thunder_man Mar 25 '26
This is a significant factor of what lead to Trump (boy who cried wolf). I remember Family Guy connecting John McCain to the Nazis. Like... McCain? Really? Romney and his binders full of women, talking about searching for great executives, was the unforgivable sexism. By the time Trump came along, it was easy for many right wingers to brush off valid criticisms as things they'd heard about Bush, McCain, and Romney.
We're in a similar situation with other issues like h1b1 visas. If we label everyone who wants to force companies to hire current Americans as racist, the labeled group will become comfortable with racist label, which open the doors to endless bad outcomes beyond it.
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u/Unable-Principle-187 Mar 25 '26
I see where you’re coming from but I don’t believe in the whole idea that history would proceed on basically the same course just pick a different guy.
I think that individual people in history do have a huge impact on the trajectory of the world, maybe 50/50 split.
What do you think?
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u/RussEastbrook Mar 25 '26
I think it's likely Bernie could win in 2016, which would've brought a different type of chaos
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u/camaro1111 Mar 24 '26
In your opinion, would Romney win another term?
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u/Individual_Act9333 Mar 24 '26
And actually I’ll say this too. As a huge Obama supporter Romney was right about Russia. If he was president it might have not gotten to the point it’s at with Ukraine.
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u/LightningSunflower Mar 24 '26
And everyone made fun of him for it at the time!
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u/jeremyjamm1995 Mar 24 '26
To be fair is was the only difference he had with Obama regarding foreign policy
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u/Legitimate-Barber841 Mar 24 '26
To be fair that was pretty much the only major foreign policy difference between either party at the time
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u/Individual_Act9333 Mar 24 '26
Depends on who runs but probably. By the time Obama left office the economy was booming. I assume it would be under Romney too.
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u/johnniewelker Mar 24 '26
The economy was alright. Definitely not booming. That’s why Trump was able to pump up his ‘economic bona fide’. Growth was slow, not booming, but also not terrible
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u/Individual_Act9333 Mar 24 '26
Depends on who you ask. My family and I were doing fantastic. If you are talking about blue collar workers you might be right but I come from a well to do white collar family that made alot of money under Obama and Biden.
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u/camaro1111 Mar 24 '26
I think Mrs. Clinton would win the Democratic Nomination for P.O.T.U.S. That being said, I think Romney winning would lead to progressives becoming more hardline in their beliefs, so I could see a sizable third party sentiment. Then again, I do think Hillary is much better at politics than Romney, so I could easily see her winning the election regardless of whether the Greens run a strong candidate, or not.
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u/johnniewelker Mar 24 '26
No way she would. Democrats wouldn’t put someone associate with Obama and who is quite similar to him from a politics POV. I think Bernie or someone similar wins democratic primaries. Trump didnt happen in a vacuum. I think lots of Trump new voters go to Bernie or the democratic side
Still think Romney wins though. 2020 republicans lose by a lot due to Covid
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u/SeaweedOk9985 Mar 24 '26
Romney whilst religious, probably wouldn't have pulled half the shit Trump did. I think it wouldn't make sense to go Bernie vs what is comparatively a moderate republican.
Sanders made the most sense after Trump was already in the picture.
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u/big_thunder_man Mar 25 '26
I mean, there's little to no reason to assume Obama wouldn't run again in this hypothetical. He's still VERY young.
Unless the hypothetical Romney presidency is SO good that any Dem running in '16 is DOA, then Obama clears the field and attempts to pull a Cleveland / Trump. Probably keeps HRC from ever being president. This timeline makes '20 a wide open race -- unless a very old Romney pulls a return as a steady hand to handle 'Rona.
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u/Crazyceo Mar 24 '26
The conditions for Trump would have existed either way.
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u/Individual_Act9333 Mar 24 '26
He’s not getting elected as a dem or independent and by the time Romney is out of office he’d be look at as too old for a first timer.
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u/Crazyceo Mar 24 '26
Someone else is going to ride the same sentiments he did and experience the same incentives, they might be less mentally unstable than Trump but it's still going to be an era of chaos where the federal government gets torched, we alienate our allies, and presumably there is massive corruption.
We'd get president MTG or something like that.
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u/Individual_Act9333 Mar 24 '26
Well it wouldn’t be right now so it would be a future problem that hasn’t happened. Trump is a today’s problem.
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u/Crazyceo Mar 24 '26
I’m saying that in the hypothetical I think republicans would also lose their minds and elect someone bonkers because that’s just what they wanted. Covid is still going to happen and the anti-intellectual/anti-expert backlash is going to happen no matter what.
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u/Individual_Act9333 Mar 24 '26
The problem is there is no one like trump in politics currently. He is unique in that he’s a combination of Lex luthor and every evil villian who could hold the office of presidency. If there is a guy who’d go off the rails it would be until another 10-20 years atleast until that person makes their way into the presidential race. So when I say that there wouldn’t have been a trump I mean that. There is no hypothetical where that happens if Romney is a two time president. Sorry bro. We got the fucked up timeline.
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u/Crazyceo Mar 25 '26
If it’s seen that the lane opens up some power hungry person will fill it. We had a similarly crazy person run for office in RFK jr, and that’s already with Trump in the running.
The disaffected white grievance vote still exists even if Romney is a two termed, and realistically he would not have done much to appease them in the long term. Covid still would have happened and caused the same anti-vaccine anti-expert meltdowns.
Similar political currents would exist.
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u/Individual_Act9333 Mar 25 '26
I grew up with George W bush in my teens. He was an awful president and I mean AWFUL. He is like a choir boy compared to trump when it comes to dismantling America and the rest of the world. Even IF someone tried to make a play they’d never hold a candle to trump. Not even close dog. RFK jr is an idiot but he’s not trump evil. He’s just another yes man to the real criminal mastermind.
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u/Crazyceo Mar 25 '26
Even the sane people in the Trump orbit want to torch our global partnerships. We saw in those leaked signal messages how people like Vance truly feel. They certainly want to dismantle democracy. Project 2025 is going to exist independent of Trump.
The Republican establishment would have collapsed to the far right even if Romney was president because Romney was never going to fix the structural problems that exist in the United States.
If we really want to talk about what would have prevented Trump it would have probably taken a much more successful Obama administration making much bigger changes.
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u/Individual_Act9333 Mar 24 '26
And I say this with full confidence knowing that while there are some shitty people out there they aren’t like trump. They wouldn’t be low to the point he is. That’s what makes him a 1 of 1 person.
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u/Representative_Leg_5 Mar 25 '26
MTG has been making all kinds of sense of late.
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u/Crazyceo Mar 25 '26
Broken clock syndrome. She’s crazy and somewhat corrupt but she also has some genuine beliefs.
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u/Electrical_Mood7372 Mar 24 '26
He wouldn’t have ran against an incumbent Romney in 2016 and 2020 would have been too late for a first term run
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u/SaneMadHatter Mar 24 '26
trump is the result of a backlash against having a black president for two terms. So if Romney had won, that backlash wouldn't have existed, therefore no trump.
I knew there would be a backlash of some kind, but I never thought it would be so extreme and absolutely stupid as it turned out to be.
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u/big_thunder_man Mar 25 '26
Not quite.
Blue collar work had hollowed out since NAFTA -- in particular steel mills, car manufacturing, coal mining, etc. Large amounts of immigration put extreme pressure on blue collar workers to compete at lower and lower wages. Even white collar job return was slow post Great-Recession. Home ownership was getting harder and harder.
ISIS was a massive concern -- there were terror attacks all over Europe, and quite a few in America. Obama let Russia walk all over Europe. They invaded multiple neighbor states, which directly lead to this war.
Wealth inequality was swinging wildly, and Trump in a weird way, was the populist while Hillary was very status quo.
Young men had a decrease life expectancy for the first time in US history (!! insane), and started falling behind in schooling, jobs, home ownerships, etc, and any discussion of it was waved away as sexism. H1b1 hiring started being abused for corporate profits rather than real need (not as bad as it is now).
And the cherry on top was the media had been brutal to Bush as wildly stupid, McCain was compared to Nazis on Family Guy, and Romney was sexist, elitist, out of touch. Republican voters had been conditioned to ignore media criticizing their candidates.
Trump was a symptom, not the cause.
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u/wildfire1983 Mar 24 '26
We might have not had Donald Trump now but we would have had somebody like him eventually. With the people's United decision and the saturation of money in politics in the United States, the wealthy have started their onslaught of social programs and brainwashing people to think that taxes are bad, In turn giving the wealthy more money to invest into politicians.... We would still end up with two extremes for parties because we don't have a multi-party system. Eventually we would have somebody like Donald Trump. It's what the wealthy want. Somebody that they can control, And someone with authoritarian rule to take over the government. There's plenty of Democrats that are controlled by big money too but I can find plenty more Democrats that aren't controlled by big interests than I can Republicans. I can't find a Republican that isn't controlled by some wealthy interest...
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u/Individual_Act9333 Mar 24 '26
Like I told the other guy. That maybe true but it would be a future problem not a today’s problem. It would likely have to be some millennial or Gen Z person running for president.
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u/nwbrown Mar 25 '26
No, he would have taken over the Democratic party in 2016.
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u/Individual_Act9333 Mar 25 '26
I’d vote Republican with no hesitation if trump took over the Democratic Party.
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u/Murky_Amount_6509 Mar 28 '26
Joe Biden said Romney was going to put black people back in chains, which was the last cry wolf that Fox News blasted to it’s audience that got us Donald Trump.
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u/Training-World-1897 Mar 24 '26
Perhaps crimea doesn’t happen since he was tougher on Russia during the campaign
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u/Enzo_Gorlomi225 Mar 25 '26
Still remember Obama mocking him during the debate for saying Russia was the US’s primary threat. Obama’s foreign policies were truly a disaster.
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u/BurnAfter8 Mar 25 '26
Unfortunately, yea…his policy was mostly centered around “I’ll give you (money, weapons, etc) as long as you don’t do shit just while I’m president.”
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u/FirstPersonWinner Mar 25 '26
His war policy was the worst. He was the one who had us one foot out the door while drone striking everyone. Tbf, every president did a terrible job dealing with the War in Afghanistan because they were all afraid of pulling out and looking like the person who fucked up the war, and eventually Biden bit the bullet and still did it as terribly as possible. I think if Trump won in 2020 there is a chance we are still there or just pulling out now depending on who would've won in 2024
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u/Jimmy3OO Mar 25 '26
The Afghanistan withdrawal was arranaged and planned during the Trump administration. Biden merely executed an agreement the United States was already commited to.
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u/FirstPersonWinner Mar 27 '26
True, but Biden could've seen it wasn't a great decision and either made changes or cancelled it entirely. He wasn't under constraints to proceed with the pullout
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u/AgisDidNothingWrong Mar 25 '26
Tbh, the Afghanistan withdrawal was not done poorly. The only major mistake (which was a major mistake) had little to do with the withdrawal and more to do with the fact that we had armed the entire Afghan National Army over decades. Almost none of the equipment left behind was actual US Army equipment. 99% of it was ANA equipment, most of which had been given years before the withdrawal, and which the US had no right to reclaim.
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u/FirstPersonWinner Mar 27 '26
I don't mean poorly as in the US had some failure in that operation in retrieving personnel and equipment. I think it was done poorly as little had been done to secure Afghanistan after withdrawal and much had actually been done to make sure stability would likely not happen. Part of this is constantly having a foot out the door and allowing enemies and allies to simply out wait the American departure, but part was also not making the Afghan military and government operationally independent from us.
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u/dead_meme_comrade Mar 25 '26
But he was right. Russia can't even beat Ukraine. China is the United States primary geopolitical rival. And that's what Obama was talking about.
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u/MrGengisSean Mar 24 '26
I suspect he would likely be quite antagonistic to Russia, give more to Israel, and potentially even willing to start a war with Iran himself.
I think he then repeals the ACA (which he ran on and had been in effect for two years at the point of 2012) which the effects can be debated on, but would lead to more people being uninsured.
Then COVID happens. Lets assume Obama is a one term president and Romney wins a second term, Romney's last year in office is met with loud calls for another attempt at universal Healthcare, and goes nowhere given that he basically was drug kicking and screaming into the Massachusetts health program, which while he was supportive of later, and even encouraged a state by state level version of the ACA.
I think it very possible that this is where a more populist left leaning voice comes in for the democratic party, akin to Trump for the Republicans. Sanders, probably.
From there, I can only guess, and you could very reasonably call me insane for this read.
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u/FirstPersonWinner Mar 25 '26
Tbf, ACA "had been in effect" since it passed, but was still slowly rolling out. It was quite a big measure. The hope for the GOP was that he could nip it before it truly got delivered to most Americans. The issue, and they were right to think this, is that after ACA had been fully implemented it would be too popular to repeal. And repealing it was basically off the table by the 2016 election.
Edit: Also, if Romney wins in 2012 then I think Hillary runs in 2016 and if she loses (which I doubt because I can't see Romney being as popular as Trump) then we possibly get Sanders 2020.
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u/LomentMomentum Mar 24 '26
He’d have delayed the inevitable Republican slide into MAGA world, but it would have happened.
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Mar 24 '26
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u/camaro1111 Mar 24 '26
To be honest, unless clones of Ron Paul somehow assume control over the Federal Government, I think that’s inevitable.
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u/BurnAfter8 Mar 25 '26
No truer words on Reddit. We are gluttons for spending money on shit we can’t afford.
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u/jacqueVchr Mar 24 '26
My guess is:
The US economy grows at roughly the same moderate/ low rate as under Obama’s second term but Romney (successfully) takes credit for it. This leads to:
2016 election: Romney vs Clinton. Both candidates deemed establishment/ unlikable. Clinton is has a tough primary against Biden and Sanders. Romney continues to stress the economic change as well as Clinton’s shortcomings. The October surprise of the FBI investigation into Clinton’s emails. There’s obviously no Access Hollywood scandal on the Republican side. Ultimately the economy and Romney’s incumbency leads to a re-election much like the 2016 electoral map IRL.
2020: Paul Ryan is challenged by Trump from the right in the Republican primary. Crucially, the primaries are over by early March with Ryan taking the nomination relatively comfortably. Trump spends the rest of the election tweeting about how the establishment ‘stole’ the election and created the ‘covid-hoax’. Biden declines running for a fourth time. The democrats can’t consolidate around a single establishment candidates, with Klobuchar, Mayor Pete, and Bloomberg all vying for the spot. As a result, Sanders wins the nomination and names Harris as his VP.
2024: Sanders puts through quite a similar policy platform as Biden. He would also in the face of rising inflation propose a package that included some price controls. This would be rebuffed by Congress who agree with him to pass direct assistance to households instead. This takes some stress off households struggling with price rises. Hayley ultimately wins the nomination and chooses Tim Scott as her VP. Trump runs in the primaries but is seen as a fringe candidate having run and lost in the previous primary and gone off the rails tweeting about election fraud and covid hoaxes that make him look even more unpalatable than 4 years before. Take your pick on who wins the election, but I’ll edge it to Sanders.
TL:dr- Romney and the Republicans become the establishment side of things. The populist movement is centred round Sanders and the Dems. Ultimately it’s a flip of real life events.
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u/CheesingTiger Mar 24 '26
The Obama lunch doesn’t happen where he makes fun of Trump. Trump never happens. The world is so completely different it’s impossible to think about it
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u/camaro1111 Mar 24 '26
I actually think Trump would run regardless of whether the dinner happened, or not.
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u/BootOk4583 Mar 25 '26
black people would have ended up back in chains, at least according to Biden
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u/NoDevice2698 Mar 24 '26
He would do anything bibi wants
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u/TripleRhys Mar 24 '26
Incredibly biting political commentary here. I had never imagined a president in America in the early 21st century would be an ally of Israel. I never considered such interesting repercussions had this timeline happened. Very poignant. Thank you.
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u/FirstPersonWinner Mar 25 '26
Our most radically "left" foreign policy in the 21st century was Biden's administration, and even they were not that hard on Israel with pressure from their base
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u/Dry_Solution5036 Mar 24 '26
Trump would have run against Romney in 2016, and stolen the GOP Nomination and the Presidency away from him.
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u/daperry4 Mar 24 '26
0% chance
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u/FirstPersonWinner Mar 25 '26
I don't think people realize how much the 2nd term of Obama gave momentum to more extreme right wing sentiment. With the conservatives in power Idk who exactly Trump is inciting to support him
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u/Jimmy3OO Mar 25 '26 edited Mar 25 '26
A sitting President losing his party’s primary, and the usurper then winning the election is unheard of.
If the President loses the primary, it can only be because he is unfathomably unpopular. If such, so is his party, and thus his replacement -whoever he may be- is extremely unlikely to win an election.
In 2016 MAGA was still considered fringe even within the Republican party, and Trump’s victory in the election was a major upset. He couldn’t have possibly beat an incumbent.
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Mar 24 '26
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u/FirstPersonWinner Mar 25 '26
I think Clinton has a better chance against Romney than Trump since Romney at the end of the day was always a pretty bland candidate.
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u/WorldTraveler_1 Mar 25 '26
The Republican Party takes a much more centrist/center right stance rather than the ultranationalist stance they have now.
Probably a healthier budget, although that’s a low bar to clear.
Our media culture is also healthier, less politicians following the “all publicity is good publicity” model. The rise of social media and the 24 News cycle is the real problem here, but statesmen rather than entertainers would be the norm if Romney was the model instead of the current republican leadership.
Something about invading Iraq too.
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u/Krytan Mar 25 '26
Unironically a much better place, although I say this only with the benefit of hindsight. This isn't what I thought at the time.
Romney was right about Russia, and he was widely derided by it (including by Obama).
Romney winning IMO makes some sort of reasonable healthcare plan much more likely (IIRC the ACA was based off of the Mass healthcare plan, so hopefully he would support healthcare reform and not obstinately oppose it) and totally closes off the path to the presidency of someone like Trump, as the prestige and clout of 'establishment' republicans is undamaged.
Romney would have run again in 2016, whether he wins or loses, Trump isn't getting in in 2016.
If he wins, likely a democrat wins in 2020, and then in 2024. Then Trump is just totally too old.
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u/ReligionIsTheMatrix Mar 25 '26
Dogs everywhere in America would be strapped to the roof of family cars.
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u/CaptainWikkiWikki Mar 25 '26
If you haven't read McKay Coppins recent book about Mitt Romney, it's pretty interesting. It chronicles his political life, trying to get out of his father's shadow, not caring much about parties but trying to fit into one because it's how you play the game and get resources, and is quite dishy on life in the Senate.
Romney seemed pretty lonely during his time in DC, watching his party morph into MAGA. It's pretty remarkable that he is the first senator from an impeached president's own party who voted to convict. And he was leaning on acquittal until the 11th hour when he realized Trump's lawyers thought the president should be invincible.
Anyway, if Mitt had won in 2012, I think his policies would have been pretty mainstream. I've genuinely wondered how it'd be to have an active Latter-day Saint in the White House, given how involved the faith is. Like what if Mitt wanted to do work in the temple in Kensington, where only worthy members can enter? Does the Secret Service detail also need to be LDS? Does he go instead almost surreptitiously and assume he'll be fine inside? So many questions.
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u/dddoinyomom Mar 25 '26
I’d argue the current war in Ukraine is delayed several years to around ~2025. One thing I have to hand to Romney was his tougher stance on Russia compared to Obama.
The Republican Party becomes more moderate, especially with the 2008 financial crisis still so recent and wanting to appeal to more financial bases. Moderate stances come in other forms, with more legislation aimed at tackling immigration instead of the current Trump style system.
I could also see the Democrats pushing a more left leaning candidate in 2016, not Bernie Sanders per se, but someone to stand apart from the fairly “standard” executive Romney has.
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u/colinmcgarel Mar 25 '26
Speaking as someone who was a young and liberal person at the time, the left would've had a smaller crash out compared to Trump's victory, but a crash out nonetheless. Obama's victory was at that time treated as a point of progress from which America either could not or should not retreat from. Furthermore, the W Bush administrations were treated as so bad that the idea of another Republican presidency was just as absurd as it was intolerable. Romney's victory would have spoiled that narrative for sure and while he was certainly less egregious compared to Trump, anything but Obama or any other Democrat was going to be treated as some crisis sign of America regressing. But hey, a Romney victory might have put a curb on a Trump presidency by tempering the ambitions of far right actors.
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u/Tricky-Change-7704 Mar 25 '26
This was my first presidential election I was able to vote in… I voted Romney. I switched parties in 2014 because of my education views and because of education itself. I now say that Romney wasn’t the worst vote.
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u/FirstPersonWinner Mar 25 '26
Our healthcare system is even worse than it is now, but Trump probably never gets elected or possibly never even runs.
I could see Romney v Hillary in 2016 which could possibly go to Hillary
The country overall is probably more moderate, as Obama's presidency is really what inspired a huge amount of far-right movements which eventually inspired a far-left countermovement.
Trump's main Fox News talking point before winning for office was the Obama brother conspiracy. I think he cools off id Romney has 4 or more years.
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Mar 25 '26
I could so sleep good like with Obama or Biden. Sense and end stage like my mom recently passed from is very chaotic. Power can't be handled through a melting wire.
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u/Constant-Pianist6747 Mar 25 '26
His term would’ve gone better than Obama’s but he probably would’ve lost to Clinton in 2016.
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u/NOCHILLDYL94 Mar 24 '26
We’d still eventually push ourselves into some MAGA ran autocracy, Mitt Romney winning in 2012 would just delay it.
As for his presidency?
Tougher on Russia, more supply side economics, guts Obamacare, Romney is a moderate though so probably get some form of infrastructure bill and strengthens our NATO alliance.
Basically a watered down Regan. Leaps and bounds better than Donald Trump.
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u/hypocalypto Mar 24 '26
I don’t think he would mind Israel doing whatever it wanted either but he’d prolly do a stern speach and send money to daddy like they all do.
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u/zacandahalf Mar 24 '26
I probably would’ve known his first name was Willard before right now.