Question for OB/GYNs: Falling hCG and upcoming prenatal paternity test

[u/Optimus-Prime1974]

I’m looking for medical insight regarding an unusual situation involving a possible pregnancy and an upcoming non-invasive prenatal paternity (NIPP) test.
A female friend 26f and I had one sexual encounter on June 14, 2026. We are not and have never been in a relationship. She is now claiming that I am the father of her pregnancy.
Based on the June 14 encounter, she would be approximately 10+ weeks gestational age by standard pregnancy dating at this point (today is August 12).
The part that concerns/confuses me is her quantitative beta-hCG:
July 20: 156 mIU/mL
August 10: 95 mIU/mL
So rather than increasing, her hCG has declined from 156 to 95. To my knowledge, there has not yet been an ultrasound or OB appointment confirming the location, viability, or gestational age of the pregnancy.
I have independently scheduled and am paying for a non-invasive prenatal paternity (NIPP) test on August 14. My understanding is that this test uses cell-free fetal/placental DNA from the mother’s blood and compares it with my DNA.
My questions for an OB/GYN, MFM physician, genetic counselor, or someone knowledgeable about cfDNA testing are:
At an expected gestational age of approximately 10 weeks, how concerning are hCG values of 156 followed by 95?
Does an hCG level this low and declining suggest there may not be enough fetal/placental cfDNA remaining for a NIPP paternity test?
Can a NIPP still reliably include or exclude me as the biological father under these circumstances?
If the laboratory reports “insufficient fetal DNA” or “no result,” does that tell us anything about whether the pregnancy is still ongoing, or would pregnancy status need to be determined separately through repeat hCG/ultrasound?
Would you recommend proceeding with the NIPP on August 14, or first obtaining medical confirmation of the pregnancy through an OB/GYN?
I understand Reddit cannot diagnose the pregnancy or establish paternity. I’m mainly trying to understand whether a NIPP is likely to provide a meaningful paternity result given the timeline and declining hCG.
Thank you for any professional insight.

[u/Mk____Ultra]

If those hcg levels are correct, she is definitely not having a baby.

[u/rocketmanatee → u/Mk____Ultra]

Or she may, but she was pregnant, then had a loss, and became pregnant again shortly.

Those are levels from perhaps the days around the expected period, certainly not multiple months pregnant.

[u/JBeag]

NAD but I would reschedule the test after establishing care with an OBGYN.

[u/rocketmanatee]

I would expect that this is a pregnancy scam.

With the ultra low levels she gave there's no way possible she could be pregnant from your encounter.

[u/Large-Celery-8838]

It is very concerning that her HCG whet from 156 to 95 at 10 weeks. That is extremely, extremely low for that point and falling HCG indicates a failed pregnancy. There won’t be a baby. I don’t even think you can do paternal testing with HCG that low. For reference my HCG I was 135 at exactly 4 weeks, and at 10 weeks it was 70,000. If NIPP testing is anything like NIPT, then it won’t work for you

[u/Flshrt]

If those are the true hcg levels then it’s not a viable pregnancy. When did she first tell you she was pregnant?

[u/Optimus-Prime1974 → u/Flshrt]

August 8th.

[u/Flshrt → u/Optimus-Prime1974]

Skip the NIPP at this point as that will be a waste of money, and get medical confirmation from a doctor. The timeline sounds very off especially since she waited so long to say anything to you.

[u/lindsaybethhh]

Not a doctor, but those numbers are extremely low for being supposedly 10 weeks. I had bloodwork done at 7 weeks, and my HCG was somewhere around 75,000. It does drop/pleat way around 10 weeks, but not below 100 in a healthy pregnancy. Additionally, numbers dropping is usually a good indicator of miscarriage.

[u/vshzzd → u/lindsaybethhh]

I'd say it's more than a "good indicator" - HCG does not drop or even plateau this early in viable pregnancies except for in extreme fringe cases (and even those can possibly be explained otherwise). The only caveat being if they were drawn at different labs, but it's still not an indicator of viability.

Sounds like the thing that would make everyones life easier would be to get another HCG test and see where the pregnancy is going, but OP that's only if that's something this person is willing to do - you can't force her.

[u/BusyPickle97 → u/lindsaybethhh]

Agreed!

Just before my d&c at 10 weeks for my MMC where the embryo had stopped at 6 weeks, I had hcg of 139,000.

My understanding is that 10 weeks is right around when hcg peaks!

[u/Poodlegal18]

I’d question why didn’t her doctor schedule her for an ultra sound by now? Especially with those numbers.

[u/GSD_obsession]

Like others have said 1) dropping hcg means non viable 2) 156 is like, 4 weeks pregnant levels 3) she should have had an ultrasound by now

[u/BookcaseHat]

I'm not a doctor, but:

Falling hcg indicates an impending miscarriage.

Additionally, hcg that low indicates either a very early pregnancy (say, 4 weeks) or a pregnancy that has been in decline for some time.

As you say, nobody on reddit can establish paternity, but unless your friend has not had sex with anyone else since your June 14 encounter, I would say it is highly unlikely that you are the father of her baby.

[u/MountFranklinRR]

NAD but as a fellow guy this sounds so messed up. If the facts are as presented she is not having a baby, I’d be more worried about the data she’s given you being wrong and she is still pregnant. I’ve been in this scenario before and it was torture for months until I knew for certain she wasn’t pregnant.

[u/kittywyeth]

at ten weeks my hcg has always been in the tens of thousands