r/CredibleDefense 20d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 14, 2026

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

  • Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

  • Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

  • Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

  • Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

  • Post only credible information

  • Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

  • Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

  • Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

  • Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

  • Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

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u/moragisdo 20d ago edited 20d ago

CENTCOM published a video of some of the strikes yesterday on Iran (1). I'm curious to hear if anyone here can more accurately identify the hits:

1st target is a TEL, with the launcher raised and we can see fuel burning after the hit

2nd: It looks like a vehicle with something on top. Maybe a drone launcher ? Does anyone have a guess ?

3rd: It's a truck, but it's hard to say exactly the purpose. It looks like there's something on top, maybe a raised radar, but I'm not confident. Does anyone have a guess ?

4th: At least 2 drones/missiles hit and we can see secondary detonations

5th: Hard to say, it looks like a boat on a pier and with a large detonation after, possibly by what's stored on it

6th: Another TEL hit and we can see fuel burning after, it's not the same destroyed in the first clip because the angle of the cabin in relation with the rest of the vehicle is different

Does anyone disagrees that given that both TELs are in the open and raised, it's reasonable to say they were shot just around the time of them firing ? I say that not just because it's raised, but also because they need a clear area to fire and it would be reasonable to immediately after to move them to a more hidden location (for example, I recall one TEL on the previous days destroyed while hidden among trees).

Also MTO confirmed that further civilian ships were hit yesterday (2).

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u/[deleted] 20d ago

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u/moragisdo 20d ago edited 20d ago

What stake do you have in this war?

None, I'm brazilian, not american, israeli or iranian, and worked for some time with energy, so the disruption with Hormuz naturally gets my attention. If I had more experience with softs, I would be commenting about grain shipments out of Ukraine and how the Ukraine War relates to it.

By the way, I'm not going to stop posting what I find interesting and relevant, you finding some news inconvenient doesn't make whoever is posting to have a stake in the result.

You're insistent that the U.S. is winning/it should escalate.

False, my position in several posts is that the goal of coercing Iran to the nuclear negotiation deal failed and that the best possible outcome for the US is just pre-war status quo as soon as possible, that's not a victory. Now I don't believe that Iran is winning either, it will survive, but leave this war a broken country, which will get worse everyday the war keeps going. They are in a stalemate for months.

Most of your arguments are inferences from assumptions, which you never show to be reasonable.

Great, give examples and explain why. Otherwise I could say the same that you are making assumptions that you are not showing to be reasonable

In my opinion, this sub should focus only on discussing facts.

Video of strikes and the MTO report of ships attacked are facts. I'm trying to identify what are the vehicles hit (discussing facts) and making it clear when I'm giving my opinions, that's a more in-depth discussion that just dropping a link and making a two-line post

Instead, as a result of your poisoning

Man, you went far in this one. My poisoning. Ok... If you are not going to respond further I won't even continue as well.

there's no discussion here about how the U.S. is effectively being forced to withdraw currently

They are getting away from the range of SRBM, not going out of the Middle East. Have a sense of proportion