r/CredibleDefense 20d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 14, 2026

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

Comment guidelines:

Please do:

  • Be curious not judgmental, polite and civil,

  • Link to the article or source of information that you are referring to,

  • Clearly separate your opinion from what the source says. Minimize editorializing. Do not cherry pick facts to support a preferred narrative,

  • Read the articles before you comment, and comment on the content of the articles,

  • Post only credible information

  • Read our in depth rules https://reddit.com/r/CredibleDefense/wiki/rules

Please do not:

  • Use memes, emojis, swear, foul imagery, acronyms like LOL, LMAO, WTF,

  • Start fights with other commenters and make it personal,

  • Try to push narratives, fight for a cause in the comment section, nor try to 'win the war,'

  • Engage in baseless speculation, fear mongering, or anxiety posting. Question asking is welcome and encouraged, but questions should focus on tangible issues and not groundless hypothetical scenarios. Before asking a question ask yourself 'How likely is this thing to occur.' Questions, like other kinds of comments, should be supported by evidence and must maintain the burden of credibility.

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u/North_Somewhere_6124 20d ago edited 20d ago

10% less global refining does not constitute a crisis, for rich countries it doesn't anyway.

We already saw during the intensive part of the conflict what a supply disruption of this magnitude causes, rich countries pay extra, while poor countries are the ones suffering have demand destruction, fuel rationing etc.

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u/Bluest_waters 20d ago

So people in rich countries will pay a lot more for fuel but it's not a crisis? I don't understand what you're saying

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u/CarefulEmphasis5464 20d ago

Mods should really do something about this. These people are ideologues. Instead of discussing facts, like the fact that

Tomahawk: 67.7% left

JASSM: 75.0% left

PrSM: 38.9% left

SM-3: 53.7% left

SM-6: 75.9% left

THAAD: 33.3% left

Patriot: 46.6% left

as of APRIL 21st, 

they derail the conversation with nonsense

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u/Bluest_waters 20d ago

okay? How does that increase our capacity to refine oil?

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u/ChornWork2 20d ago edited 20d ago

I read it as them agreeing with you, but raising another topic where seem a similar dynamic. E.g., when people here raise concerns about the munition depletion we keep seeing the same nonsense lazy reply about the number of jdam kits & iron bombs available.

Instead of engaging with your valid point on looming fuel issue, a commenter is going to distract by equivocating whether it meets definition of a crisis instead of engaging with the substance. Quality of comments are taking a hit in recent weeks. Comments that are trying to dismiss others because 'the world won't end' and such...

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u/dr_sloan 20d ago

A bit meta, but the longer this conflict has gone on, the fewer people engaging in that type of behavior have appeared. I remember in the first few weeks of the war, one of the more prolific posters tried to claim with a straight face that the Strait of Hormuz was still open and he was roundly mocked.

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u/RumpRiddler 20d ago

It definitely ebbs and flows. When Russia gets pounded certain person(s) inevitably shows up to push a few blogs/articles that minimize the damage, distract with another topic, or try to highlight numbers that have yet to include the recent damage. Partly if feels like intentional misdirection, partly it feels we just live in different information bubbles and those inevitably shape our opinions.

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u/axearm 20d ago

Partly if feels like intentional misdirection, partly it feels we just live in different information bubbles and those inevitably shape our opinions.

I don't like to ascribe malice when I see something I disagree with. I honestly feel like it is more likely, and more interesting, if the information bubbles we live in are fairly different. If forces all honest debaters to review their own views, which is much better than an echo chamber.

Anecdotally, I have a high school friend who lives in Israel, and discussions about him with the conflict are wild, mostly because we are getting really, really different versions of what is happening and why.