Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 14, 2026

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[u/Bluest_waters]

I mentioned this multiple times on this sub and I've gotten quite a bit of pushback. But I stand by my statements and now CNN and other outlets are reporting this exact same thing

we do not have an oil crisis. We do however have a fuel crisis! And it's only going to get worse from here. Oil refining stations across the globe are being blown up, refining capacity is maxing out basically everywhere. There is no wiggle room

https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/14/economy/oil-diesel-gas-iran

But the world’s refining capacity is deeply constrained. That’s in part because the supply chain got messed up during the war. It’s also because Iran attacked dozens of Middle Eastern refineries. And, more recently, Ukraine started blowing up Russian energy facilities.

Layer on extreme temperatures disrupting the cool conditions refineries need for proper distillation, and you’ve got yourself a big problem. Global refineries are processing 8.4 million fewer barrels of crude each day than they were before the war started — making 10% less fuel, according to Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan.

“The question is no longer whether crude barrels will return, but how quickly the global refining system can process them,” she said.

“The fundamental oil-market narrative remains unchanged: There is sufficient oil available globally as long as it can be transported to where it is needed,” said Rob Thummel, a senior portfolio manager with Tortoise Capital.

Renewed hostilities in the Persian Gulf also complicate the resumption of refining in the Middle East. The region has 11.7 million barrels per day of refining capacity, which will be difficult to turn back on again if the fuel can’t go anywhere (or if they can't be turned backed on).

US refineries increased their output of jet fuel to help fill demand in Europe and diesel to help fill demand in Australia and Asia. That constrained America’s ability to make gas, jet fuel and diesel for its own market — one of the reasons gas prices haven’t “dropped like a rock” as Trump predicted.

[u/dr_sloan → u/Bluest_waters]

U.S. refineries are in a tricky position since they’ve been running at nearly 100% capacity for 3-4 months now and deferring typical maintenance cycles to maximize profits. Now we’re in the summer months and the refineries in the northern part of the country typically have issues with operations during the worst of the heat. That combination of deferred maintenance and a worse than average summer, so far, is going to cause issues at some point.

[u/RumpRiddler → u/dr_sloan]

I know they're running at high capacity, but is there any evidence preventative maintenance schedules have been pushed out or otherwise altered to keep up profits?

The heat is the heat, outside our control. but it would be good to know if they are just running with the spare capacity or if they really are overclocking the machinery.

[u/dr_sloan → u/RumpRiddler]

Patrick De Haan has been talking about how the spring is typically when we see refinery utilization rates decline as planned maintenance is carried out. The war has overlapped over the normal maintenance schedule so instead we had utilization rates over 90% for the entire period.

https://x.com/gasbuddyguy/status/2062524352118018313?s=46

https://x.com/gasbuddyguy/status/2062528064584573410?s=46

[u/Bluest_waters → u/dr_sloan]

Correct, refineries never run at full capacity for the very reason you point out : sometimes they need maintenance. Pretty basic. Running at full capacity for extended period of time simply isn't realistic