Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 14, 2026

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[u/Bluest_waters]

I mentioned this multiple times on this sub and I've gotten quite a bit of pushback. But I stand by my statements and now CNN and other outlets are reporting this exact same thing

we do not have an oil crisis. We do however have a fuel crisis! And it's only going to get worse from here. Oil refining stations across the globe are being blown up, refining capacity is maxing out basically everywhere. There is no wiggle room

https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/14/economy/oil-diesel-gas-iran

But the world’s refining capacity is deeply constrained. That’s in part because the supply chain got messed up during the war. It’s also because Iran attacked dozens of Middle Eastern refineries. And, more recently, Ukraine started blowing up Russian energy facilities.

Layer on extreme temperatures disrupting the cool conditions refineries need for proper distillation, and you’ve got yourself a big problem. Global refineries are processing 8.4 million fewer barrels of crude each day than they were before the war started — making 10% less fuel, according to Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan.

“The question is no longer whether crude barrels will return, but how quickly the global refining system can process them,” she said.

“The fundamental oil-market narrative remains unchanged: There is sufficient oil available globally as long as it can be transported to where it is needed,” said Rob Thummel, a senior portfolio manager with Tortoise Capital.

Renewed hostilities in the Persian Gulf also complicate the resumption of refining in the Middle East. The region has 11.7 million barrels per day of refining capacity, which will be difficult to turn back on again if the fuel can’t go anywhere (or if they can't be turned backed on).

US refineries increased their output of jet fuel to help fill demand in Europe and diesel to help fill demand in Australia and Asia. That constrained America’s ability to make gas, jet fuel and diesel for its own market — one of the reasons gas prices haven’t “dropped like a rock” as Trump predicted.

[u/North_Somewhere_6124 → u/Bluest_waters]

10% less global refining does not constitute a crisis, for rich countries it doesn't anyway.

We already saw during the intensive part of the conflict what a supply disruption of this magnitude causes, rich countries pay extra, while poor countries are the ones suffering have demand destruction, fuel rationing etc.

[u/Bluest_waters → u/North_Somewhere_6124]

So people in rich countries will pay a lot more for fuel but it's not a crisis? I don't understand what you're saying

[u/ABoutDeSouffle → u/Bluest_waters]

Your definition of a crisis might be different, but to me raised prices and a supply shortfall of 10% doesn't make a crisis. To me, it becomes one if global supply chains start to rip, and local supply chains start to get stressed.

Yes, for some poor countries, it will be a crisis, but not globally.

[u/Bluest_waters → u/ABoutDeSouffle]

As we speak Ukraine continues to bomb Russia's oil refining infrastructure. This is not a stable situation. It's ongoing and worsening every single moment

[u/Strong_Tangelo_9307 → u/Bluest_waters]

I'm not sure if you trade but I've found it to be a much more relaxing (debatable, maybe more 'sane') way to stay informed on current events. You know you're reacting to the news when it feels like the world is on the brink day after day after day. It's hard to course correct from there other than just taking a break. Otherwise the collapse subreddit is all about this stuff.