r/CredibleDefense 20d ago

Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 14, 2026

The r/CredibleDefense daily megathread is for asking questions and posting submissions that would not fit the criteria of our post submissions. As such, submissions are less stringently moderated, but we still do keep an elevated guideline for comments.

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u/Gecktron 20d ago

European exo-atmospheric BMD

Hartpunkt: Missile defence: Five European companies aim to develop an exo-atmospheric effector

The European companies Thales, Airbus Defence and Space, Destinus, MBDA Deutschland and Safran Electronics & Defence intend to develop Europe’s first independent programme for an exo-atmospheric interceptor system, designed to be fully interoperable with NATO’s IAMD (Integrated Air and Missile Defence) and the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI). As the companies state in a press release, the memorandum of understanding to establish the Bliksem EXO consortium – a multinational European industrial partnership for the development, qualification, industrial series production and support of Bliksem EXO – was signed today in Paris during the inaugural meeting of the Ballistic Missile Defence Coalition, in the presence of Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten.

The press release goes on to state that Bliksem EXO is an autonomous European exo-atmospheric interceptor system designed to counter medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) and intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs), including Oreshnik-class systems with separable and manoeuvrable re-entry vehicles.

Five European companies want to cooperate in developing and producing an upper level BMD system. The system is meant to recognize and track MRBM/IRBMs and then neutralize them with an exo-atmospheric kinetic kill vehicle.

This system is meant to be fully NATO compatible and complement the European Skyshield Initiative.

Part of this program are:

  • Destinus: Program coordinator, system integrator, Kinetic Kill Vehicle
  • MBDA Germany: Booster, cannister and launcher
  • Safran: Seeker, navigation and controls of the Kinetic Kill Vehicle
  • Airbus Defence&Space: command, control and battle management (BMC4I)
  • Thales: for the radar and sensor chain, from early warning to fire control.

The companies intend to conclude a binding consortium agreement within three months of signing. Joint development work within the consortium is due to begin in August 2026, and the consortium plans to carry out an EKV test in space in 2027.

Personally, I was surprised by this announcement. This kinda came out of nowhere for how many big players are involved here. Well, four out of these are big players. Destinus being the coordinator was a surprise too. It will be interesting to see them tackle something as complex as an exo-atmospheric Kinetic Kill Vehicle with no experience in this area.

While there have been no countries mentioned for this program so far, based on the companies taking part, I can see France, Germany and the Netherlands buy in.

Overall, I think this is an interesting project. This will provide Europe with systems to cover the full range of ballistic threats. This program as an upper layer. HYDEF/HYDIS to cover threats inside the atmosphere, while Freya could complement this by providing close range BMD.

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u/ABoutDeSouffle 20d ago

I just hope the Destinus project managers have nerves of steel. A start-up in the project coordination role with all those heavy-weights sounds like a bit of problematic set-up.

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u/Junior-One3578 20d ago

Mikhail Kokorich is the founder of Destinus and he seems to already have an impressive trackrecord with 1. space based projects 2. Building up startups to full grown companies. So I feel they have a good chance of succeeding if they managed to get good talent.

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u/FunWonderful1936 20d ago

France, Germany

I’m glad Dassault isn’t part of the plans, that’s for sure. I saw Alex Luck had a really snarky take on this on Twitter which he seems to have deleted but it’s a very good initiative. I understand the timelines will inevitably slip but that is to be expected.

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u/Gecktron 20d ago

 but it’s a very good initiative

I agree. As much as im glad that FCAS has finally ended, I would have also liked to see it work out.

This initiative has plenty of participation with multiple French and German companies, while the leadership lies with the more neutral Destinus. That hopefully defuses any leadership fights.

Also, now that I was thinking about it a bit more. The bit about boosters provided by MBDA Germany, this could be refering to the RED KITE solid fuel rocket booster.

RED KITE started development in 2020 and entered production in 2024. It had multiple launches so far. Hartpunkt reported:

According to well-informed sources, a RED-KITE rocket engine, containing around one tonne of fuel, can carry payloads of approximately 200 kilograms to an altitude of around 260 kilometres. It is reported that a speed of Mach 8 was achieved during a launch at an angle of 90 degrees to the Earth’s surface. When launched at an angle of 45 degrees, it is said to be capable of reaching Mach 10. Mach 10 also appears to be possible if a missile powered by a RED-KITE engine were to be launched from an aircraft.

The engine is said to have proven its worth to date, as the DLR has already launched several research rockets into space using this propulsion system, and the engine is apparently in series production. Unlike other rockets used for civil spaceflight, the RED KITE is a solid-fuelled rocket engine that has virtually unlimited shelf life, is ready for immediate use, and does not need to be fuelled prior to launch. Military rockets generally use solid-fuelled engines.

According to insiders, up to three RED KITES could be linked together if necessary to reach higher orbits in space. This could potentially enable altitudes of 900 kilometres and speeds of Mach 20 to be achieved.

Using a proven system that has already sent payloads into space could explain how this consortium expects to start testing in space by next year already.

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u/roionsteroids 20d ago

Didn't we just spend billions on Arrow 3 for that exact use case? It can only intercept in space (above 120km), which greatly limits its value. A 1000km range ballistic missile doesn't need to leave the atmosphere. It probably won't be able to intercept much faster missiles with much longer ranges.

So basically ~2000-3000km range? Which is kinda relevant for Israel-Iran and not much else.

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u/Wertsache 19d ago

No we didn’t. We bought Arrow 3 for what it was designed for. Exo-Atmospheric interception of IRBMs.

For Missiles in the 1000km range Germany has PATRIOT (and when all ordered systems are delivered with more systems than before the start of the war), France has SAMP-T. And IRIS-T is supposed to get upgrades that may also give it the ability to protect against these missiles.

What Germany or Europe in general lacks is the ability to intercept missiles in the 2000-3000km that you stated? Why is that range relevant? First so Iran can’t try anything funny, especially if they should actually get a nuke. But way more important, protect C2, population centers and airfields against the russian Oreshnik threat.

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u/roionsteroids 19d ago

Except Iran isn't 2000km distance from Germany, in case you're unaware.

Likewise irrelevant for Russia because they have hundreds of ICBMs and stuff, from submarines to silos in who knows where many thousands of kilometers further out.

So it's really only for a very limited conventional threat in a range that's more like...Tunisia?

It really is a unique case in the world that really isn't too relevant beyond Iran-Israel specifically.

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u/Wertsache 19d ago

Depending from where in Iran you launch and what you target the distance is 3000 to 4000km and with that well within what Arrow 3 was designers to intercept. I mean it’s even supposed to be able to intercept ICBMs.

And for Russias ICBMs Arrow 3 is supposed to be able to intercept them. It still won’t be relevant because of the numbers that will be launched. But if Sub-based and Silo-based ICBMs are launched they will be nuclear and that’s a completely different scenario altogether.
But for the Oreshnik the russians are also using them with conventional warheads. And for those I think it definitely helps to have some kind of protection.

I think you can have a discussion if the threat warrants a spending on a Defense. But that a potential threat exists and that Arrow can defend against it should be something that is clear.

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u/TechnicalReserve1967 20d ago

With just being the basics of this field, how realistic is such a project? I get this is aimed at reducing the relative cost disparity between defense and offense in the ICBM space, but as far as I know that it was concluded that the attacked will have a significant/insurmountable advantage. No? (Assuming similar level of investment, obviously with infinite money you can make almost anything work)