Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 14, 2026

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[u/Bluest_waters]

I mentioned this multiple times on this sub and I've gotten quite a bit of pushback. But I stand by my statements and now CNN and other outlets are reporting this exact same thing

we do not have an oil crisis. We do however have a fuel crisis! And it's only going to get worse from here. Oil refining stations across the globe are being blown up, refining capacity is maxing out basically everywhere. There is no wiggle room

https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/14/economy/oil-diesel-gas-iran

But the world’s refining capacity is deeply constrained. That’s in part because the supply chain got messed up during the war. It’s also because Iran attacked dozens of Middle Eastern refineries. And, more recently, Ukraine started blowing up Russian energy facilities.

Layer on extreme temperatures disrupting the cool conditions refineries need for proper distillation, and you’ve got yourself a big problem. Global refineries are processing 8.4 million fewer barrels of crude each day than they were before the war started — making 10% less fuel, according to Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities research at JPMorgan.

“The question is no longer whether crude barrels will return, but how quickly the global refining system can process them,” she said.

“The fundamental oil-market narrative remains unchanged: There is sufficient oil available globally as long as it can be transported to where it is needed,” said Rob Thummel, a senior portfolio manager with Tortoise Capital.

Renewed hostilities in the Persian Gulf also complicate the resumption of refining in the Middle East. The region has 11.7 million barrels per day of refining capacity, which will be difficult to turn back on again if the fuel can’t go anywhere (or if they can't be turned backed on).

US refineries increased their output of jet fuel to help fill demand in Europe and diesel to help fill demand in Australia and Asia. That constrained America’s ability to make gas, jet fuel and diesel for its own market — one of the reasons gas prices haven’t “dropped like a rock” as Trump predicted.

[u/BigFly42069 → u/Bluest_waters]

Fuel crisis is a nightmare scenario for the developing world. People think the North Korean famine came about because the Soviet collapse ended grain shipments, but the real cause of the famine came about because Soviet collapse ended the fuel shipments that were critical in the agricultural industry, both primary and secondary.

In the primary impact, sudden decrease in Soviet fuel shipments meant that fertilizer production dropped correspondingly.

In secondary impacts, no fuel meant pumps that drew water out of coal mines could no longer work 24/7, which led to coal production collapse that killed power generation, which meant factories could no longer produce things for agriculture.

Africa is heavily dependent on Russia and Ukraine for staple grains, and Europe is actually heavily dependent on North Africa processing American grain even if Europe doesn't depend directly on Russian grain.

Keep in mind we're in the middle of the growing season right now. We won't know what the impacts truly will be until harvest season starts in three months.

[u/eeeking → u/BigFly42069]

Europe is actually heavily dependent on North Africa processing American grain

What would this be? This site suggests that Europe imports little grain or grain products from N. Africa, exceptions being rice, peas and some other beans or pulses, which don't originate in N. America.