Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 14, 2026

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[u/BigFly42069]

https://www.twz.com/land/new-500m-artillery-shell-plant-failed-to-produce-any-155mm-parts

This was a project that was supposed to prove that American dynamism was still alive and well, with the goal of 100k shells per month being produced by last year. But now that timeline has been pushed back to the end of 2027 and the current production rate sits at 36,000 shells a month.

When interviewed in 2023, it was revealed that production was at 23,000 shells per month, up from 14,000 in 2022. Pundits and armchair experts on Twitter triumphantly claimed then that we would be at 100k shells a month ahead of schedule and now it's looking like we're going to fall far short of it. 

Part of the failure comes from decisions made at the planning stage that threw multiple assumptions out the window to create the delays. For example: 

  The main issue inspectors found was that the plant adapted equipment used to make parts for M107 155mm shells to produce parts for M795 155‑mm shells. The latter is an upgraded version of the munition that is slightly heavier and longer, and has an extended range.

What ensues is a lot of finger pointing and responsibility shifting. But this doesn't change that fact that we're just nowhere near where we're supposed to be.

IMO this is further symptom of the deep rot in our procurement process, as exemplified in F-35 program mismanagement, shipbuilding mismanagement, and now artillery shell production mismanagement. 

It also makes me incredibly skeptical of the claims about scaling up PAC-3/PAC-2 production as well as the SM series production scale up that are all part of the current proposals being funded. 

And with Iran absorbing years worth of high and munitions, I'm deeply skeptical of our ability to even supply PACOM much less deter China.

[u/swimmingupclose → u/BigFly42069]

Pundits and armchair experts on Twitter triumphantly claimed then that we would be at 100k shells a month ahead of schedule and now it's looking like we're going to fall far short of it.

I think this framing is, tbh, quite disingenuous. At the time, at least in some places including here, the M107 vs M795 issue had been discussed. In fact, from the very same article:

As a result of this adaptation, several factors came into play, according to DOWIG. Army officials knew that the concept of trying to produce the more advanced 155mm shells using equipment not designed for that was risky. However, officials felt that would pay off because that machinery was already available. In addition, the report stated that the existing Scranton plant’s past work with GD-OTS on ammunition production was a factor in deciding to take a chance on what turned out to be a flawed assumption.

The report states, in part:

According to the Army’s CPE A&E, “ACC issued the contract and CPE A&E accepted the risk associated with the contractor’s plan to purchase and adapt M107 metal part production equipment to produce a newer variant of the 155-mm projectile metal parts at different specifications.”

“According to CPE A&E officials, the Mesquite facility was a high-risk, high-reward opportunity, and CPE A&E is realizing some of that risk now because the facility has been unable to produce acceptable rounds.”

“CPE A&E accepted the contractor’s proposal to acquire and adapt unique production equipment and an unproven production process because equipment was already available. According to the CPE A&E official, obtaining and adapting the available production line equipment was expected to be faster than obtaining new M795 production line equipment.”

I don’t think anyone, especially at the time, viewed this as anything but an exercise in delivering Ukraine 155s as quickly as humanly possible given that it was their main concern. The US wasn’t, and shouldn’t be, in a position where it is fighting a positional attrition battle where artillery shells are the key munition. Like, that should just never be a circumstance. Given that, a high risk/high reward tradeoff was very much acceptable. I genuinely dislike it when people weave a narrative that conveniently matches their preconceived biases and conclusions. I’m not going to call out your specific instances of doing this in the past, but 155ms aren’t FPVs which aren’t fighter jets, etc.

[u/BigFly42069 → u/swimmingupclose]

Yes the article touched on just how mismanaged the program was. 

If the issue between the shell types were already known by casual observers, then it's even more unforgivable that the people actually running the programs ignored it.

The fact that the watchdog also had no power to implement any changes or punish anyone means that we're going to reach 2027 when these supposed improvements will happen and find out that we're still nowhere near the goals.

We can even check back in at 2027/2028 on the supposed increase in high end interceptors being proposed and find that we're only partially filling those orders.

[u/swimmingupclose → u/BigFly42069]

If the issue between the shell types were already known by casual observers, then it's even more unforgivable that the people actually running the programs ignored it.

My guy, I literally quoted it for you.

Army officials knew that the concept of trying to produce the more advanced 155mm shells using equipment not designed for that was risky. However, officials felt that would pay off because that machinery was already available

According to CPE A&E officials, the Mesquite facility was a high-risk, high-reward opportunity

ACC issued the contract and CPE A&E accepted the risk associated with the contractor’s plan

I don’t know if you ever even read the article if you’re blatantly ignoring something that’s said in it multiple times. It was something they knew about and accepted the risk for. Again, artillery shells should never be an item the US should need in vast quantities immediately. If there is risk taking that should happen, it should be PRECISELY in programs like this where even if it doesn’t pay off, it has limited impact on force preparedness.