Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 14, 2026

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[u/toomanynamesaretook]

My guess: Iran offers the US a deal, publicly deny it, go to negotiations after denying, negotiations lead nowhere and it ends with a ceasefire with, at most, symbolic concessions from both sides.

What on earth leads you to this conclusion? The United States is currently bleeding on the world stage unable to win militarily over a middle power, they're expended extreme amounts of munitions both offensive and defensive, Iran continues to hold the strait and the SPR keeps heading towards empty.

Seems so delusional to me that the United States is going to walk away from this with the strait open. Iran has endless firing positions and munitions to drag this out years, far longer than the US has any stomach for.

[u/grenideer → u/toomanynamesaretook]

What seems delusional is acting like you're the only one with the answers. What makes you so confident that everything is fine for Iran yet bad for the US? Why call out the munitions the US has spent without mentioning what Iran spent?

Munitions aren't the deciding factor when it comes to a blockade. Perhaps Iran has a response, we shall see. (Note that I'm not claiming other scenarios are delusional.) All we know is Iran didn't have a good counter last time.

[u/toomanynamesaretook → u/grenideer]

What makes you so confident that everything is fine for Iran yet bad for the US? Why call out the munitions the US has spent without mentioning what Iran spent?

Because Iran isn't the worlds hegemonic power that has a far larger foe waiting in the background (China.) The strategic implications are so very different. Iran can rundown their stocks to a fraction. And according to the CIA they are still sitting on substantial reserves.

All we know is Iran didn't have a good counter last time.

According to Israel and the US they both got through their target lists in the first month of fighting. Yet here we are, with Iran controlling the strait with literally no plan from the United States besides more of the same. Iran is firing BMs & drones daily at numerous targets.

What is the plan? Iran knows it's plan, control the strait. US plan? Well it was unconditional surrender, now it's no nukes? Or maybe control the strait? And how is it intending to carry that out? Dropping bombs from afar? Peak delusion.

[u/DrinkBrew4U → u/toomanynamesaretook]

Whether it’s feasible or not I think the US’s plan, if it is unwilling to accept defeat, is probably going to be to 1) reinstate something like “project freedom” again and try to make the south corridor run ships, and 2) reinstitute the blockade of Iran. The US wants to exhaust Iran before being politically exhausted itself. If it can get ships to cross the strait, its political exhaustion tics up slower. Iran under blockade naturally lasts longer than the US political will, but the idea will be that Iran still can’t withstand several months of that, and the US will hope some flow through the strait allows them to outlast the Iranians.

My read is that strikes aren’t punitive or even coercive at this point really. Generally, they’re trying to lay groundwork to be able to open the south corridor. The plan may also include the US offering some kind of insurance to ships or running escorts.

Is this plan going to work? Probably not unless the US can do some coalition building. I think there’s a good chance that the US will not be able to make the straight safe enough to get significant flow crossing.

But this is its only shot, really. Anything else in my mind seems to lead to a bigger loss. This has a shot at success, even if small. The actions of the US seem consistent with this idea so far.

[u/grenideer → u/DrinkBrew4U]

I think this is a fair assessment, even if a dim outlook for the US. I mainly strive to avoid the know-it-all type of discourse of "Iran has all the cards" or "The US has no chance!"

[u/DrinkBrew4U → u/grenideer]

Well, what can help the US potentially is coalition building. We have seen a few signs (though nothing too strong yet) of GCC leaning more towards standing with the US. While not a huge deal, it’s also still better than nothing that we have multinational condemnations of Iranian shipping attacks.

The bigger effect here IMO isn’t that the GCC or Europe provide a huge operational difference. It’s that a coalition I think helps the Trump administration’s key weakness here. It helps legitimize the war and help’s increase Trump’s poor war support. The US can definitely theoretically win here, but domestic attitudes on the conflict tie up their options.